I don't think there's much doubt that Mitchell is among the few Chargers with explosiveness to his game. The offense utilized Mitchell as soon as their third snap from scrimmage last week and gave him a total of 11 touches, often giving him carries to the edges and short targets in the passing game. Both of those types of touches are perfect to lean on against a zone-heavy defense like the Seahawks. It wouldn't surprise me if Mitchell had his second game of the year with 10-plus touches and his third with at least 39 total yards.

It would be surprising if the Derrick Henry revenge game involved a lot of passing from Lamar Jackson. The Titans pass rush isn't great, their secondary leaves a lot to be desired, this should mean some premium efficiency from Jackson, but maybe not so much in terms of passing. History is also on our side: In 14 career games when Jackson has played and Derrick Henry has had 20-plus carries, Jackson has thrown 28 or more times in four of them, including two losses (that would be a shock) and one one-score win. Best of all, if the Ravens blow the Titans out, Jackson might sit in the fourth quarter.

Love the idea of taking 33.5 at plus money over having to lay a little at 32.5. The 49ers pass rush took a significant hit with the loss of Nick Bosa. They'll still get to Brissett at times, but he'll still be able to get passes off in a game where the 49ers figure to build a nice lead. He had over 50 attempts in his lone game against them last year, and the Cardinals have thrown at least 35 times in each of their past three. New coach Mike LaFleur may prefer to run the ball more here, but that scenario won't be an option if the Niners put points up.

We've seen this number crater from 220.5 and I'd play it down to 210.5. Houston's pass defense has been bombarded by Josh Allen and Joe Burrow -- Daniel Jones isn't on their level. He's getting the ball out fast and keeping it short, and he's not quite as effective as he was to start 2025. Maybe that changes, but the Colts receiving group is awfully limited, the Texans pass defense and pass rush is considerably better than what they've showed this far, and this entire game could be controlled by the running backs.

Hard to find this one but I'd take it down to 240.5. Through two weeks Lawrence simply isn't scrambling as much, including last week against a pesky Broncos pass rush. The Patriots are very good up front and can contain Lawrence if he gets frisky. I'll bank on him not getting much on the ground and getting challenged through the air against a stout Pats secondary, leaving him with good but not amazing passing yardage in what amounts to a low-scoring game.

I know the Eagles will want to show off their new offense, but they have spoken about getting better running the ball, and that's easy for them to do this week with their offensive line healthy, Saquon Barkley healthy, and Jalen Hurts is expected to run more too. That should be advantageous versus a Commanders defense that added a total stud in Sonny Styles but surrounded him with some suspect run stoppers, particularly up front. If the Eagles play with a lead, which I expect, Hurts won't be asked to throw a lot and can be eased into the new passing scheme over time, not in Week 1. I'd consider under 28.5 also.

It's tough to envision a game script where the Cardinals get pressure on Herbert. It's even harder to envision Herbert scrambling out of the pocket, particularly when the Cardinals pass rush isn't considered dangerous and the Chargers offensive line is the healthiest its been in over a year. Almost ALL of Herbert's 498 rush yards last year came on scrambles, and about half of his rushing yards came on scrambles when pressured. I doubt the Chargers have the motivation to put their quarterback in harm's way, particularly in what should be a decisive win.

I strongly considered the under on Trevor Lawrence's pass attempts but pivoted to this because Cleveland's defensive backs are still good enough to make some plays on the ball and erase some completions. Lawrence was under this total in 10 of the 17 games he didn't leave early last season, and of the 10, eight were wins. The Browns new coaching staff figures to install a defensive scheme that should still be able to get pressure on the quarterback with those quality corners behind them, but it's the Cleveland offense that might not keep up its end of the bargain and ultimately put the defense in bad spots, leaving the Jaguars with the ability to stay balanced offensively.

It's a new offense for the Steelers but an old one for Aaron Rodgers, who reunited with Mike McCarthy and will probably aim for a conservative, slow-ish paced approach. That should be easy for the Steelers to do against a Falcons team that has arguably the worst pass rush in the league to begin the season and questions on offense. Both factors can put the Steelers in the lead where they can take pressure off of Rodgers and run the ball effectively. For what it's worth, Rodgers was under this in eight games last year with six of them wins including three by 13-plus points. I'd be shocked if the Falcons kept this one close and would consider playing this down to 29.5.

He has the hot hand, but Rhamondre Stevenson's had 15-plus rush attempts in just three games all year! One was a blowout win over the lowly Titans, and the other two were his most recent games when he helped ice the Pats wins against the Texans and Broncos. Stevenson will see a Seahawks run defense that's yielded 3.3 yards per rush allowed and z-e-r-o explosive runs in its past four games. That suggests Stevenson won't be a big factor on the ground which in turn would mean the Pats have no reason to feed him the ball. That would follow how other teams have operated against the Seahawks -- just five running backs in 2025 had more than 14 carries against the NFC Champs.

AJ Barner had a low 12.7% target per route run rate in Seattle's past four games. That percentage shrinks down to 0% against man-to-man coverage, which is what the Patriots tend to play a high amount of. We've also seen Barner catch two or fewer passes in each of three straight -- pretty big games for Seattle. Part of his problem has also been Barner's role as a blocker as roughly 15% of his snaps on pass plays have resulted in him blocking, not running a route. And if that's not enough, the return of rookie Elijah Arroyo and the emergence of veteran receiver and short-area target Cooper Kupp could put a clamp on the number of opportunities he gets from Sam Darnold.

Will Walker be the lead back? Yes. Will he be the only back? I doubt it. In two years as head coach, Mike Macdonald's Seahawks have played three games where one running back has had 20-plus carries. Plus, the game script for Walker to receive that much work totally depends on whether or not the Rams put points up, which is something they've done against the Seahawks twice already, especially in Week 16. I would imagine Sean McVay has made it a point to focus on Walker, thus limiting his efficiency and in turn forcing the Seahawks to go in another direction on offense. The oddsmakers know that the public will be on the overs for Walker, and they've accounted for it with big lines.

For starters, this is a tough matchup -- Denver is send in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed (6.1), fifth in yards after catch per reception allowed, 10th in EPA per dropback and they've been this good despite seeing the sixth-most pass attempts per game. They're tested and are very good. Given the potential shortcomings of Denver's offense with Jarrett Stidham under center, as well as their run defense declining over their past four meaningful games (4.5 yards per carry, 9.8% explosive rush rate allowed), this should be a spot where the Patriots run the ball effectively and not force Maye to throw it into the teeth of this secondary.

It was telling last week that Denver ignored its run game against Buffalo's favorable run defense. You might think it would be nonsense for them to do it again, especially with Jarrett Stidham starting, but I think the ship has sailed on Harvey's opportunities this season. And even if it's not, Harvey will face a really tough run defense in the Pats. In their past three games with Milton Williams back and linebacker Robert Spillane healthy they've let up -- no joke -- 1.8 yards per rush, no touchdowns and zero explosive runs. Zero! Harvey himself hasn't been efficient -- 3.4 yards per rush in four of his past five -- and JK Dobbins could be back.

In the two games Xavier Hutchinson ran the most routes in, Weeks 6 and 17, Nico Collins was out. And in both games he saw six-plus targets and caught five balls for at least 69 yards in each. As long as Collins is out, I fully expect Hutchinson to reprise his role as the Texans primary perimeter receiver. It'll mean he'll see some of Christian Gonzalez in coverage, but I'd be shocked if the Patriots dedicated serious resources to Hutchinson. Tack on concerns I have about Houston being able to run the ball, and I'd take advantage of these lines before the steam up. I would not play over 3.5 receptions whatsoever, and I would hesitate to go any higher than 34.5 yards.