This is a huge number to lay in a conference game this late in the season, but I think there is enough of a gap in recent form to think this game could get sideways. Kansas State, at 5-5, clearly has not had the season it expected and now it faces its second straight road game in one of the toughest places to play in the country. Utah's home field advantage pairs with a recent form that has seen the Utes put up 45+ points in three straight Big 12 wins, winning each of those games by at least 27 points. And while the Utes are buzzing, Kansas State enters after a woeful offensive performance in a 14-6 "win" at Oklahoma State.

The Aztecs don't have much time to wallow in a poor showing out at Hawaii, because a huge showdown with another Mountain West title contender is on deck with Boise State. The Broncos have had an off week to rebound after losing starting quarterback Maddux Madsen to injury in the loss to Fresno State, but I don't think the market has adjusted enough to his absence. The Aztecs have been humming at home this year, going 4-0 straight up and against the spread, so this looks like a get-right spot.

TCU has been playing some shaky football for about a month and I'm not sure Provo at night is where the Horned Frogs are going to recapture their mojo. BYU's offensive woes against Texas Tech are likely a reflection of the Red Raiders' elite status defensively, with TCU being something closer to the average Big 12 team in that regard. If the Cougars can get the ground game going it's going to be a long night for TCU, and a good opportunity for BYU to keep its Big 12 title hopes alive.

Jon Scheyer wants the identity of his Duke teams to be on the defensive end of the floor, and that's where I think we have some real opportunity in these games against inferior competition. With a young team playing on the road in West Point, it might be understandable to see slightly lower production and also for Scheyer to toy with his lineups and test his depth. But it doesn't matter whether you are Cam Boozer or the 10th man on the bench, Scheyer wants to see floor-slapping defense from the Blue Devils.

In its last three SEC games, Kentucky has defeated Auburn, scored 34 points against Tennessee and took Texas to overtime. This is a team that may be 3-5 on the season but they are certainly still fighting. As for Florida, the injury report is as long as a CVS receipt and as more key players are scratched from the lineup it's hard to see the Gators matching their on-paper potential in a road game under the lights in Lexington.

I suspect the Hoosiers are going to want to beat Penn State by more than Ohio State did (24), but we don't even need that kind of dominance to cover this number. Indiana did get caught in a close game on the road earlier this season against Iowa, but I think the subsequent thrashing of Maryland in College Park can squash any concerns about road woes for the No. 2 team in the country. Indiana has one speed, and I don't think the presence of an interim coach will result in any mercy or pity from Curt Cignetti's group.

Another year, another season of Chuck Martin having the RedHawks playing their best football when MACtion rolls around. Martin is 51-20 in conference play since 2016, including an 18-2 run since the start of 2023. And sure enough, Miami Ohio is 6-2 against the spread on the season and 4-0 conference the spread against MAC opponents.

The Tennessee defense has been boom or bust this year, ranking among the nation's leaders in sacks and defensive touchdowns but also routinely giving up big plays. Playing at home, at night, should be a boost for the Vols' defense against an Oklahoma offense that has come up short in some of the biggest games. Throw Josh Heupel's extra motivation against the Sooners (remember his emotional locker room scene after last year's win?) and it's hard to fade the Vols in this spot.

Florida State returns from its off week seeking its first ACC win of the season, while Wake Forest is humming after an upset of SMU. The Demon Deacons do not have the same on-paper talent as Florida State, but they have exceeded expectations this year with solid play while the Seminoles have collapsed following a 3-0 start. Jake Dickert's team can make this interesting, and at double-digits it's certainly worth a play.

Missouri's offense has not produced at the same clip in conference play, and while the Tigers' defense can cause some problems for Vanderbilt I'd rather have Diego Pavia than Beau Pribula in this QB battle. This is the second straight road game for Mizzou but also only the second road game of the season. After escaping in 2OT against an Auburn team that I don't rate as highly, the Tigers are going to find it tough to get the same breaks against Vanderbilt.

Arkansas only punted twice in an impressive back-and-forth effort at Tennessee, showcasing the potential that interim coach Bobby Petrino might be able to guide some strong performances from the Hogs over the second half of the season. Now we've got an undefeated Texas A&M team coming to Fayetteville, and while the Aggies defense has improved in recent weeks Taylen Green is enough of a difference-maker to be able to hang inside a touchdown and threaten for an upset.

Boston College is in a bit of a free-fall, having lost five straight outright and failing to cover in each of the last four games. UConn, meanwhile, enters this old Big East rivalry out of an off week with a real chance to improve to 5-2. The Huskies have built up confidence getting wins against some of the bottom 20 teams in the FBS, and that run has included the best passing performance of the season from Joey Fagano and some improved defense after leaky outings against Delaware and Ball State.

Miami should be planning to win this game at the line of scrimmage, where my expectation is that Louisville will have a hard time blocking one of the best defensive fronts in the country. A somewhat clunky start out of the gates offensively wouldn't be a huge shock, either, coming out of an off week. But even if Louisville has some success early I think Miami leaning on the visitor for four quarters leads to a lower-scoring ground-and-pound win for the Canes.

The remarkable effort required to storm back from a two-touchdown fourth quarter deficit at Oregon State does not inspire confidence that Houston is a top-tier team in the Big 12. Conversely, we just saw Texas Tech go into Salt Lake City and totally control Utah in a wire-to-wire win. Houston quarterback Conner Weigman is going to be under duress by the Red Raiders dynamic pass rushers, and if Texas Tech can score early and make Houston one-dimensional it's going to be a long night for the Coogs.

The Aztecs are admittedly in a tough travel spot here coming off a win in Dekalb against Northern Illinois, but they face the most ideal opponent in an Colorado State side that is reeling. A shake up to the offensive staff might not be enough to reverse course for the Rams, who will have their hands full trying to score on a surging San Diego State team that's now 3-1 and riding the best defense in the Mountain West.