Both of these teams enter their first of two regular season rivalry showdowns coming off sweaty mid-week wins, with Michigan snatching victory from Nebraska and Sparty having to roar back from a potential upset spot against Rutgers. But while Michigan State might have been caught in a lookahead spot I think Michigan's close win is more in line with its recent form. The Wolverines have failed to cover in each of its last seven games, and there are some matchup points that will allow Michigan State to negate some of what has made Michigan so excellent this season. Plus, Tom Izzo at home as an underdog in a rivalry game? I'll take those points all day.

This game sets up to be a chess match throughout the afternoon, with both Oregon and Texas Tech looking to set up and eventually execute explosive plays against elite defenses. It's a chess match that will be fascinating to watch play out and likely set up a close game deep into the second half. It's just at some point we're going to need a quarterback to make a game-saving or game-winning play and right now I'd rather side with Dante Moore in that discussion. He's made some huge throws late in games this season and I like his odds more to be able and do so again.

We have seen the SEC fall short of expectations a couple of times already in bowl season this year, and the Vols already got one of the more favorable conference draws and yet went 8-4. An analysis of the resume shows more quality losses than quality wins for Tennessee, while Illinois defeated the ACC Champions and USC on the way to its 8-4 record. Both teams have notable opt-outs, but I like Luke Altmyer to deliver a big-time performance in his final game with the Fighting Illini.

Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is 6-0 in bowl games at Minnesota and 18-11-1 against the spread against non-conference opponents. In terms of opt-outs, reports are pointing to both star running back Darius Taylor and defensive end Anthony Smith playing in this game. New Mexico has had a great season under Jason Eck but this is a low line for a Big Ten team with a history of bringing its best in the postseason.

I think we have an obvious letdown spot for UConn coming off a tremendous win against the reigning national champion Florida Gators on Tuesday night in Madison Square Garden. Here they get a visit from Sean Miller's first Texas team, and while the Longhorns have not faired well against top competition they are athletic enough to do some damage with a well-executed game plan. Speaking of game plan, Miller's Xavier team played UConn tough last year and peeled off a couple wins against the eventual national champs in 2023. This spread considers Texas way too much of a pushover given the spot and the familiarity in the coaching matchup.

This is a huge number to lay in a conference game this late in the season, but I think there is enough of a gap in recent form to think this game could get sideways. Kansas State, at 5-5, clearly has not had the season it expected and now it faces its second straight road game in one of the toughest places to play in the country. Utah's home field advantage pairs with a recent form that has seen the Utes put up 45+ points in three straight Big 12 wins, winning each of those games by at least 27 points. And while the Utes are buzzing, Kansas State enters after a woeful offensive performance in a 14-6 "win" at Oklahoma State.

The Aztecs don't have much time to wallow in a poor showing out at Hawaii, because a huge showdown with another Mountain West title contender is on deck with Boise State. The Broncos have had an off week to rebound after losing starting quarterback Maddux Madsen to injury in the loss to Fresno State, but I don't think the market has adjusted enough to his absence. The Aztecs have been humming at home this year, going 4-0 straight up and against the spread, so this looks like a get-right spot.

TCU has been playing some shaky football for about a month and I'm not sure Provo at night is where the Horned Frogs are going to recapture their mojo. BYU's offensive woes against Texas Tech are likely a reflection of the Red Raiders' elite status defensively, with TCU being something closer to the average Big 12 team in that regard. If the Cougars can get the ground game going it's going to be a long night for TCU, and a good opportunity for BYU to keep its Big 12 title hopes alive.

Jon Scheyer wants the identity of his Duke teams to be on the defensive end of the floor, and that's where I think we have some real opportunity in these games against inferior competition. With a young team playing on the road in West Point, it might be understandable to see slightly lower production and also for Scheyer to toy with his lineups and test his depth. But it doesn't matter whether you are Cam Boozer or the 10th man on the bench, Scheyer wants to see floor-slapping defense from the Blue Devils.

In its last three SEC games, Kentucky has defeated Auburn, scored 34 points against Tennessee and took Texas to overtime. This is a team that may be 3-5 on the season but they are certainly still fighting. As for Florida, the injury report is as long as a CVS receipt and as more key players are scratched from the lineup it's hard to see the Gators matching their on-paper potential in a road game under the lights in Lexington.

I suspect the Hoosiers are going to want to beat Penn State by more than Ohio State did (24), but we don't even need that kind of dominance to cover this number. Indiana did get caught in a close game on the road earlier this season against Iowa, but I think the subsequent thrashing of Maryland in College Park can squash any concerns about road woes for the No. 2 team in the country. Indiana has one speed, and I don't think the presence of an interim coach will result in any mercy or pity from Curt Cignetti's group.

Another year, another season of Chuck Martin having the RedHawks playing their best football when MACtion rolls around. Martin is 51-20 in conference play since 2016, including an 18-2 run since the start of 2023. And sure enough, Miami Ohio is 6-2 against the spread on the season and 4-0 conference the spread against MAC opponents.

The Tennessee defense has been boom or bust this year, ranking among the nation's leaders in sacks and defensive touchdowns but also routinely giving up big plays. Playing at home, at night, should be a boost for the Vols' defense against an Oklahoma offense that has come up short in some of the biggest games. Throw Josh Heupel's extra motivation against the Sooners (remember his emotional locker room scene after last year's win?) and it's hard to fade the Vols in this spot.

Florida State returns from its off week seeking its first ACC win of the season, while Wake Forest is humming after an upset of SMU. The Demon Deacons do not have the same on-paper talent as Florida State, but they have exceeded expectations this year with solid play while the Seminoles have collapsed following a 3-0 start. Jake Dickert's team can make this interesting, and at double-digits it's certainly worth a play.

Missouri's offense has not produced at the same clip in conference play, and while the Tigers' defense can cause some problems for Vanderbilt I'd rather have Diego Pavia than Beau Pribula in this QB battle. This is the second straight road game for Mizzou but also only the second road game of the season. After escaping in 2OT against an Auburn team that I don't rate as highly, the Tigers are going to find it tough to get the same breaks against Vanderbilt.