Mike's Picks (1 Live)
Welcome to the ultimate clash in offensive styles. Kennesaw's league games averaged 153 points, mainly because the Owls are high-octane with the 16th most possessions per outing in Divison 1. The Bulldogs are 319th in the pace category, wth the fewest points yielded in CUSA and a No. 10 ranking (out of 12 members) for scoring. Their regular season faceoffs illustrate the contrast. One game produced 156 points, the other 113. The finals in the one-bid league could result in a modest score given the inherent pressure. Plus, the Bulldogs' tournament outings have ended with 109 and 135 points.
In a win-or-else games for both teams for an NCAA Tournament berth, scoring tends to decline slightly. While Akron and Toledo are offensively potent, their league games averaged 157 points each. A total above that figure is surprising. Their four combined MAC tourney games all landed below this number, with three in the low 140s. While the Zips live up to their nickname with a high-paced offense, the Rockets are middle of the road. Such a lofty total is not warranted.
Rarely has a tie-breaker for conference tournament seeding loomed larger. Tulsa and Wichita State were the co-runnerups in the AAC. The tie broke in the Shockers' favor, and they received a bye to the semifinals. The Golden Hurricane slogged through a triple-overtime win Friday that was beyond sloppy mostly because of exhaustion. A turn-around within 24 hours poses a major challenge. Wichita plays lock-down defense, with a yield of 70 ppg, and its physicality should impede the worn-down opponents.
It might seem odd to play against a team receiving nearly double digits that has not trailed in the entire SEC Tournament. The thinking is, Ole Miss could run out of petrol here against a foe that plays fast enough to average 90 ppg (fourth most in Divison 1). The Rebels dropped a seven-pointer to the Razorbacks at home, and this will feel like more of an away game with more Arkansas fans in the building. Darius Acuff returned from a brief injury layoff to lead the Razorbacks over pesky Oklahoma on Friday with 37 points. Weary Ole Miss will be hard-pressed to lower that output substantially.
UCLA advancing to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals is no surprise. The Bruins have been playing lights-out lately. However, so has Purdue, which took down Northwestern and second seed Nebraska by a combined 29 points in Chicago. Worse for UCLA, its most pruductive player Tyler Bilodeau (18.1 points, 5.8 rebounds per game) likely will sit out with a knee injury suffered Friday. The Boilers know him well, having endured an end-of-game basket by Bilodeau that beat them last season. UCLA has stated its case for a decent NCAA Tourney seed and should let Bilodeau rest for more important business. While the Bruins finished off Michigan State with him on the bench, Purdue gets to game-plan knowing his absence is probable.
A 187-point offensive explosion in the second game of their regular season series largely explains this generous total. It's a tad high, given that NC Central prefers a dawdling pace (281st in shots attempted per outing in Division 1) and the Eagles are coming off a 112-point game in the MEAC Tournament semis. Not to be overlooked is Howard allowing a league-low 63 ppg in conference competition. The projected blowout means Under players might not be sweating out the all-too-common foul and free throw shooting fest down the stretch.
Wisconsin dealt Michgan its only league loss -- while on the road, no less. The Badgers have won five in a row outright, coverng in four, while the Wolverines have covered in just one of the last six as bettors become overly enamored with them. Ailing starter Nolan Winter has not played lately for the Badgers, but their offense has not suffered -- with scoring up. They excel as sizable underdogs, having not only covered but won outright when receiving at least eight ponts. If there is a worry, they must rally physically after being extended nto overtime Friday. Their mental readiness aganst mighty Michigan is no concern.
The best two defensive teams in the America East have drawn a sizable total. Both offenses can score but play patiently, with UMBC 286th in shots per game among Division 1 members and Vermont near the bottom at 345th. They allowed 63 and 64 points, respectively, in conference contests. The Catamounts' two tourney outings have resulted in 132 and 117 points, and the finalists' regular season series had games of 119 and 137. It would be a surprise if the rubber match wound up in the 130s.
Tired Oklahoma might prefer a different opponent for its third SEC Tournament game in three nights. Arkansas plays up-tempo, having averaged the 18th most shot attempts per game in Division 1 during the regular season, and should benefit from any Sooners' fatigue. The Razorbacks won the regular season matchup by only four points but were on the road. Their strong fan following should dominate the arena for the rematch. And they welcome back SEC Freshman of the Year Darius Aciff Jr., who was held out of the last game with an ankle injury largely as a precaution.
St, Bonnie has ridden an emotional wave through two A-10 Tournament wins -- trying to extend the career of longtime coach Mark Schmidt, who is being forced to resign. The fairytale should end here. The Bonnies have used a seven-man rotation in tourney games and might be leg-weary. Darryl Simmons and Dasonte Bowen never got a blow Thursday, and they sat for just a combined four minutes Wednesday. Rested Dayton knows it needs an A-10 title to reach the NCAA tourney. The teams are comparable offensively, but the Flyers are clearly better on defense, having yielded five fewer points per game.
Clemson dazzled in its ACC opener against Wake Forest but likely will be less than whole in the second outing. Big man Carter Welling -- the Tigers' top rebounder and shot blocker as well as the No. 2 scorer -- suffered a knee injury. North Carolina is figuring out life without ailing standout Caleb Wilson, gone for the season. The Tar Heels beat Clemson by four points two weeks ago minus Wilson, albeit at home. Their weakness -- rebounding -- could be mitigated by the probable absence of Welling.
BYU has been impressive in both Big 12 Tournament wins, but freshman sensation AJ Dybantsa could be exhausted after sitting a combined four minutes. Houston's relentless defense figures to cause him problems after he piled up 28 points on the Cougars in the regular season. Despite the outburst, the Coogs triumphed by 11 at BYU. Houston habitually opens league tournaments strong. In the past five seasons after the pendemic-caused cancellation of their conference tourney, they are 5-0, with margins of victory between nine and 25.
Were Duke at full strength, this llne might make sense. The Blue Devils' roster has been thinned out by injuries to point guard Caleb Foster and post player Patrick Ngongba, reducing their depth. FSU stayed within four points in the regular season meeting. Further, the Seminoles roll into the ACC Tournament on a 7-1 straight-up streak. The 'Noles have covered in 11 of the last 15. They can make this a single-digit game.
Auburn might be playing for its NCAA Tournament life. However, the Tigers likely must cope again with Tennessee's most productive player, big man Nate Ament. He is expected to return after sitting out two games to rehab an injury. Ament burned Auburn for 22 points in the Volunteers' eight-point regular season win. Tennessee dominated the boards with 16 more rebounds, and Ament's presence could assure a near repeat of the significant stat difference.
