Nerves occasionally contribute to relatively low scores in the First Four games involving mid-majors. Solid defense on both sides makes this matchup especally attractive for an Under. Both teams hold opponents in the 60s on average -- 67 for UMBC, 68 for Howard. While Howard leans up-tempo on offense, the Retrievers take their sweet time, as evidenced by a 291st rating for possessons per game. Wth UMBC seeingly the slightly better team, it has a better chance of controlling the pace.

Howard has won eight straight and 11 of 12 (11-1 ATS), but UMBC is equally hot and comes from the better conference. The Retrievers' guard trio of Jah'Likai King (13.9 ppg), DJ Armstrong (13.2 ppg) and Ace Valentine (12.0 ppg, 4.0 apg) should be the difference in a close game. UMBC commits just 9.4 turnovers per game (22nd nationally), which will be critical against Howard's pressure defense. The Bison commit 13.8 turnovers per game (340th nationally).

I think UMBC has a higher offensive ceiling in this game with a couple different options for players who can handle the offensive responsibility. DJ Armstrong, Jah’Likai King or Ace Valentine are capable of stepping up, and if Howard can’t force turnovers with its pressure defense then it might struggle to defend UMBC’s scorers in the half-court. The key to UMBC breaking that pressure and preventing Howard’s transition game is great ball security and a commitment to getting back on defense that includes selling out on the offensive glass. Since UMBC can turn this into a game on its terms, I like their odds to win.