Expert Picks
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Here. We. Go!
Indiana is not a team that beats itself. The Hoosiers lead the country in turnover margin (1.40 per game) and rank second in penalty yards per game (26.9). Meanwhile, the Hurricanes can be their own worst enemy. They average 57.1 penalty yards per game (84th in the nation) and are coming off a 10-penalty game in the CFP semifinal. And that doesn't include drops, turnovers and game management issues that we've seen with coach Mario Cristobal's squad. Miami needs to play a clean game against a disciplined Indiana team, and I don't know if the Hurricanes are capable of that. In addition, Miami's ailing cornerbacks looked vulnerable against the Rebels, and I fully expect Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza to take advantage if they're not healthy.
The temptation to simply side with rampant Indiana at whatever the price is understandable, given the dominating form over Alabama and Oregon in the playoffs, seen off a combined 94-25. Yet we recall struggles vs. Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State in the Big Ten final; the Buckeyes are the only common foe with the Canes, and Miami arguably was more impressive in its 24-14 Cotton Bowl win over OSU. Indiana has been a bully most of this season, and the script could flip on the Hoosiers if Miami holds its nerve, establishes the punishing ground game that has helped it get to the final, and QB Carson Beck meets the moment. Not impossible! Play Miami-Fla (at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami).
Indiana has emerged onto the scene and shocked the norms of college football by going undefeated this season, beating Alabama and Oregon in the playoff games by a combined score of 94-25. Do you think they can cover against Miami laying nine points or less? I knew in the Big Ten championship game that we were seeing a special kind of team when they knocked off the best defense I've ever seen in Ohio State. Coach Curt Cignetti has been at Indiana for 2 years, and he's 26-2. His coaching reminds me of Nick Saban, who has all angles covered for his team, and he demands excellence. One fumble lost all season is one of the minor details Cignetti has preached. Indiana for the win.
Did you really think I wouldn't back my Canes? Now simply deciding whether to call in a favor or two and get tickets. If it wasn't on a Monday night I might. Wish it was on a Saturday night. I'm surprised at this number especially playing on UM's pseudo-home field -- although I'm sure it will be half Indiana fans on Jan. 19. Miami's defense is so good, and Indiana's equally so, that there may not be 20 total points scored. So heck yeah I'm taking 8.5 to where now in theory a two-point conversion can't beat me.
Indiana allows 11.1 ppg, second fewest in FBS. Miami grants 14.0 ppg, fifth lowest. The defense also rate highly for sacks, with Miami No. 1 and Indiana tied for second. If these are not ingredients enough for a defense-dominated game, consider that Miami's massive D-line should be able to control the Hoosiers' modestly sized O-line. Unders have done well with these teams, with both 4-2 below the total in their last six outings. Indiana's affection for long, clock-eating drives clinches this pick.
Look for the Hurricanes to lean into the one component in this matchup where they have the advantage, and that's the offensive line. In the trenches Miami has a huge size difference, which means they'll try to shrink the game there with Mark Fletcher and their run game. Expect the Canes to chew up a lot of clock, with the ability to keep this game under that 8.5 number.
MIAMI GARDENS – The actual line of this game is a full point lower (-7.5) in the hours and minutes leading up to kickoff, which is what we are picking here. Indiana has been the best team this season by margin. Miami may be the hottest team running into the national championship. While UM is at home, the crowd is not be as green-and-orange dominant as most expect – not that it will matter to IU either way, but it has at least a 65-35 advantage. It’s tough to see the Hoosiers suddenly falling apart in this spot, though the way the Hurricanes played Ohio State certainly gives pause. With the line coming down into a reasonable zone (buy -7, -120), the move is Indiana.
I’ve doubted Indiana long enough and now I’m done. This team is absolutely for real and they’re going to prove it in Miami’s home stadium on Monday night. The Hoosiers’ defense has only given up more than 20 points twice: at Penn State and in garbage time against Oregon in the Peach Bowl. Don’t expect Miami to find a ton of success against that unit. On the other side, I think the Hurricanes will keep the game close before Fernando Mendoza leads Indiana to two fourth quarter touchdowns and an improbable National Championship to say the least. Indiana 27, Miami 17.
When these teams met in October, Oregon held the Hoosiers to their co-lowest yardage total (326) of the season, and Indiana still won by 10. That game also was in Eugene. The Hoosiers are a team that doesn't beat itself and has few, if any, weaknesses. Meanwhile running back depth could be an issue for the Ducks. Leading rusher Noah Whittington is listed as questionable, and backup Jordon Davison is out. Oregon rushed for just 81 yards in the first meeting. Now that this line has dipped to -3 from -4, I'll gladly take Indiana.
No surprise if we get a rock-fight here not too dissimilar from the Big Ten title game at Indy between the Hoosiers and Ohio State. Maybe even a bit slower-paced than the October meeting between these two at Eugene that ended in a split decision for Indiana, 30-20, two late picks off of Dante Moore finally deciding the outcome. Indiana's punishing infantry, which set up Fernando Mendoza's Heisman campaign thru the air, only gained 3 ypc at Autzen Stadium, and the Ducks just blanked a Texas Tech side that couldn't score after entering Miami scoring at nearly 44 ppg. The IU defense, however, also made going difficult for Oregon in October, and this rematch might be played in the teens. Play Oregon-Indiana Under (at Atlanta)
The "revenge factor" from the regular season has been worth noting since conference championship weekend, as six times in eight, the losing team from the first meeting has won the rematch. A trend that would favor the Webfoots atoning for the 30-20 October loss at home to the Hoosiers. Worth noting how IU's bread-and-butter ground game was kept in check by Iowa, Penn State, and Oregon during the regular season, and from there is where the Hoosiers derive their KO power. The earlier clash was a split-decision in IU's favor, not a knockout, and it is highly unlikely the Hoosiers bully Oregon the way they did Alabama last week. The Ducks' manhandling of Texas Tech suggests a real chance tonight. Play Oregon (at Atlanta)