Ole Miss
Rebels
MISS
Last 5 ATS
W/L4-2
ATS3-4
O/U4-3-0
FINAL SCORE
27
-
34
Texas
Longhorns
TEXAS
Last 5 ATS
W/L5-2
ATS2-5
O/U3-4-0
Last 5 ATS
4-2
Win /Loss
5-2
3-4
Spread
2-5
4-3-0
Over / Under
3-4-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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The Texas Longhorns have their backs against the walls against an Ole Miss team that has blown their last two opponents out by 35 and 28 points. They did beat their old quarterback in Austin Simmons a week ago, and this could be a dejavu spot. Their lone poor game was after they beat their former coach and LSU, as they were blown out 52-28 by Florida. Texas may continue to have their issues but back them on the short number.
Trinidad Chambliss should get as much attention as Arch Manning does. Chambliss is the one top QB in the country who actually plays up to the level of his competition when it gets tougher. Meanwhile, Arch has performed like an average FBS starter all season, and Texas is without its best player on defense.
The SL Curse has been activated on Ole Miss. Guess I understand why everyone is piling on the Horns, but they have been money at home vs. ranked teams the past couple of years. Is Arch Manning the most overrated college athlete since Brian Bosworth? Quite possibly. The Boz, who at least was good at Oklahoma, is now in national insurance commercials and pretty good in them, which just blows my mind. This is the season for Arch and Texas. And I'm just not buying Ole Miss. They might have the two best players on the field in Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy but UT probably has the next best 20. The model thinks this is an easy Texas win. I'll take a walk-off FG.
Texas is headed in the wrong direction. The Longhorns were ranked No. 1 just a few weeks ago but have lost consecutive games to Oklahoma and Florida. Ole Miss has bounced back from its loss to Florida with consecutive wins over Vanderbilt and Missouri by a combined 63 points. The Texas offense has fallen off significantly in SEC play. The Longhorns are averaging just 305.3 total yards and 22.7 points per game over their last three games, compared with 417.3 yards and 37.7 points over their first three contests. On the other side, the Rebels average 37.5 points per game (20th nationally) and 444.5 yards per game (36th). They've scored 83 points and averaged 453.5 yards in their last two wins.
FanDuel. Texas is a mess right now. Arch Manning is struggling. The offensive line is struggling. The defense is struggling. Special teams are struggling. The coaching staff is struggling. Other than that, the Horns are in great shape. Ole Miss has lost just once, and that was when the Rebels were in an all-time bad spot after beating LSU. Since then, the Rebels dismantled Vanderbilt and Missouri, winning by a combined score of 83-20. Texas is splitting first-team quarterback reps between Arch and redshirt freshman KJ Lacey Jr. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has the best player on the field in Trinidad Chambliss. I think he’s the difference in a close game. Throw in no Colin Simmons, and I'll take Ole Miss +3.5 for a Half Unit.
Ole Miss has the best QB in this game, and arguably in the country, in Trinidad Chambliss. Their offense is playing significantly better and their much-maligned defense has started to play better the last two games. On the other side the Texas offense is stuck in neutral and they'll be without their best defender in DE Collin Simmons. This is a completely bad matchup for the boys in burnt orange.
When I first saw this spread, I went to DraftKings to make sure this wasn't a lookahead line from last week because the wrong team is favored. The Rebels have turned things around since their debacle at Florida (which can be partly forgiven since it came after the emotional win over former coach Lane Kiffin) and are coming off a 31-3 dismantling of No. 13 Missouri. Meanwhile the Longhorns, who have lost to unranked Oklahoma and Florida in consecutive weeks, are in a freefall, and one week is not enough to correct all of the issues they have on offense (blocking, quarterback play and play calling). My main play is on the money line, but I'll gladly put two units on the spread as well.
How are the Longhorns favored in this game? They have lost back-to-back games to unranked teams, and the offense has been broken all season. The offensive line can't block, quarterback Arch Manning has little command of the offense and coach/playcaller Steve Sarkisian doesn't have any answers. And on defense, all-world pass rusher Colin Simmons is out multiple weeks with a high-ankle sprain. While Texas has quality depth behind Simmons, that's still bad news against elusive quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and an Ole Miss offense that ranks 20th in the country in scoring (37.5 points per game). I'm shocked that the early money has come in on the Longhorns. The Rebels win this with or without running back Kewan Lacy. Two units.
