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It's hard not to get caught scoreboard watching given what we've seen during the first three games. ...

Perhaps a change of scenery will help the Dodgers' Eric Lauer, who was recently acquired from the Blue Jays for cash. Lauer was so good last year for Toronto but has really struggled in 2026 ahead of his L.A. debut. Colorado's Kyle Freeland has a 7.04 ERA on the year and is 0-3 with a 11.21 ERA in four May starts. A fair amount of Dodgers have good career splits off him. One of Colorado's better hitters in TJ Rumfield left Monday's loss injured.

Caesar’s. Tyler Mahle has allowed 60 hits in 51.2 innings this season, with at least five given up in 7/10 starts. This includes his last start against the Diamondbacks in which he allowed 8 hits. The Diamondbacks offense has been hot in general, with a .275 batting average against righties over the last two weeks, as well as the highest line drive rate (24.6%) and third best hard hit rate (40.2%). Even if Mahle (.294 OBA) regresses to the mean (.250 xBA), this is still a line the D-Backs should hit within the first 22 batters.

It was less than a week ago that Tyler Mahle faced this Diamondbacks team and gave up 6 earned runs through 5 innings and there's very little evidence that he'll have a drastic improvement this time around. Eduardo Rodriguez is due for some regression for Arizona, but the Giants aren't great against lefties and I think he does enough to limit runs. Ultimately, this is a fade of Mahle and a lean on the Dbacks bats that are starting to heat up.

FanDuel. Despite a stretch where he’s seen his strikeouts dwindle, I’m backing Randy Vasquez on this short strikeout line. He’ll face a Phillies lineup that has really struggled of late: 29% K% and a .566 OPS against righties the last two weeks. Vasquez is over this line in six of ten starts and is enjoying his best season in the bigs thanks to a tweaked arsenal and lower arm angle.

I'm backing Vegas to get the sweep tonight. This game is being priced like the Golden Knights haven't dominated the first three games. I think it should be closer to -115. Vegas goalie Carter Hart has been a wall with a .942 save percentage in the series. It's hard to believe but the vaunted Colorado offense have just four goals at full strength in the first three games. The Avalanche also has some key players banged up, including star Nathan MacKinnon, who is dealing with a lower body injury. The Vegas' defense has been elite in the playoffs and I expect that to continue in Game 4. The Golden Knights move on to the Stanley Cup Final.

Chet Holmgren has faced the Spurs eight times this season, averaging just 10.9 points per game, and has exceeded 13.5 points just twice, going for 14 and 17. In the Western Conference Finals, he's scored no more than 14 points and taken no more than 10 shots, averaging 8 shots per game. In 13 career games vs. Wemby and the Spurs, Holmgren is averaging 12.6 PPG.

Caesar’s. With Jalen Williams ruled out, I’m actually going to turn to his namesake. Jaylin Williams has seen an uptick in minutes as a backup big in the Thunder’s desperate attempt to find some complementary offense without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell. Playing 22 minutes in each of the last two games, Jaylin has attempted 13 total threes as a floor spacer, trying to draw Victor Wembanyama away from the bucket. He’s a more attractive offensive option than Isaiah Hartenstein, and a better threat from the outside than Chet Holmgren. At +115 or better, I like this spot.

Isaiah Hartenstein has dished out 10 assists the past three games. More important, his playing time has increased to the point where we can expect about 20 minutes. That’s because he’s provided solid interior defense. Assuming the Thunder shoot better at home following a disastrous Game 4, I like Hartenstein to finish with 3-plus assists.

Only 185 points were scored in Game 4. That was ugly. But the previous three games delivered us 231, 235 and 237 points. That’s more on par with what to expect. On the year, they allowed a combined 218.4 ppg, and poured in 238. This number is just too low.

Spurs power forward Julian Champagnie had 11, 8 and 10 points in the opening three games before laying an offensive egg in Game 4, like most everyone else. He was 1-for-7 from the field and 0-for-5 on 3’s. But he’s not a focus of the OKC defense, and shot 8-12 times in the previous games, nearly all 3’s. The line on his 3’s is 1.5 but the odds are nearly -200, so we’ll go this route for a half-unit.

After playing just 12 minutes in Game 1, Isaiah Hartenstein finally got the shot he deserved and had PRA totals of 18 and 12 in Games 2 and 3. His Game 4 total of 10 wasn’t bad considering he managed just 18 minutes. He averaged 12.9 R/A on the season. Scoring could be a challenge, but Hartenstein can still get the ball and work some inside-out game, and crash the glass.

Devin Vassell is earning raves for his all-around play in this series, which includes tenacious defense against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. What jumps out to me is Vassell looks healthy and explosive and goes 100 percent on every single play. He has cleared this prop total in four of his last five games and, barring a blowout, should play at least 35 minutes.

Caesar’s. De’Aaron Fox collected 17 total rebounds over the last two contests, with 23 total rebound chances. Schematically, it makes sense - he’s primarily tasked with defending one of the Thunder low usage spot up shooters, and has been crashing hard on missed threes and after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drives. He’s also played 30 minutes in each game this series - looking healthier than fellow injured guard Dylan Harper - and was the last Spur starter on the floor in the Game 4 blowout. It’s a lot of juice, but I have him projected at 5 rebounds, and would bet this for a partial unit at 4.5 at plus odds.

DraftKings. After clearing this combined line in the first three games of the conference finals, Cason Wallace fell one rebound + assist short in Game 4. However, the opportunities were there - Wallace only converted 4 of 12 rebound chances and 1 of 5 potential assists. With Ajay Mitchell remaining out for Game 5, and Jalen Williams still in question, I do like Wallace to continue to see ample minutes in Game 5. He’s cleared this line in 8/12 playoff games, including all six in Oklahoma City. Look for Wallace to bounce back in Game 5.