Jon's Picks (6 Live)
Real Madrid continue to be a brutal side to try to predict. One week they're beating up Athletic club 3-0, the next they're struggling to win a cup match against a club in the third tier of Spanish football. There's a couple things I'm just going to auto bet right now. I'm going to bet Kylian Mbappe to score, I'm going to bet BTTS, and I'm going to bet the overs. Sevilla is much worst than Real Madrid, but with that being said I expect them to see a defensively struggling Madrid side and press for goals. Real Madrid should win this easy, but wins aren't coming easily for Los Blancos, so just sit back, bet on the over, and enjoy the chaos.
I watched Crystal Palace host Finnish club KuPS in their midweek Europa Conference fixture, and man did they look tired. This is a team that doesn't have a ton of experience juggling multiple competitions lately, and the wear and tear is starting to show. Even though Palace did rotate for that matchup, their core players looked sluggish when they took the pitch. While this is a team I normally prefer taking unders on, they're going to have their hands full when they take on a Leeds side who is firing on all attacking cylinders.
The EPL title race is back on as unfortunately for everyone, Manchester City has rediscovered their goal-scoring boots. With Pep's squad breathing down the necks of Arsenal, they've once again found them in a position where they will require perfection in their upcoming matches, especially with no UCL play till next month. Everton are not a bad side, but showed some glaring weakness against Chelsea, that Arsenal will look to exploit. Calafiori is back in the lineup, so expect Arsenal to play high and go for goals.
Tottenham and Liverpool matches have been thrilling for decades now. There is currently no other Premier League fixture that has seen more goals than when these two sides clash. All you need to do is look at what happened when these teams met last year. A 5-1 victory for Liverpool, a 6-3 victory for Liverpool and a 4-2 victory. I know that neither team is in particularly good form, but to be honest, I don't care. This is the kind of matchup that can bring back Liverpool into the title race, and with no Salah available, players like Ekitike, Isak and Wirtz will press for goals.
No team has vexed me more this season that Arne Slot's Liverpool. Liverpool spent more money than any other team in England picking up some of the most elite strikers and midfielders in the world, and then, didn't really do much with them. Mo Salah had arguably his best season last year, and has done almost nothing this year, and the club dropped points left and right. It does seem though, after a drought, like things are starting to click. The win in UCL play over Inter on the road was massive, and was the turning point for this squad. I think they get their third win in a row taking on a disjointed Spurs cast.
Levante play without a doubt the most frustrating style of football, at least for me. This team is bottom of the LaLiga table, and is doing nothing to change their losing ways. They've lost seven matches straight across all competitions, including a Copa del Rey loss to a Segunda Division side. Their last five matches have all had the exact same thing happen. We've seen both teams fail to score, and under 2.5 goals. 1-0, 2-0, 1-0, 2-0, 1-0 in their last five and all losses. Real Sociedad isn't good, but right now mentally Levante is already defeated, and I don't see them pressing, even though they probably should.
Let's get it out of the way. I am aware that Burnley have now lost seven matches in a row. I believe, that they will lose this match as well, but I also believe we can thread the needle here and cash a few tickets on this game. While Burnley are leaking goals, they're also putting together a relatively solid offensive performance. Their last three losses to Crystal Palace, Newcastle, and Fulham, saw them only lose by a single goal. They'll look at Bournemouth who just drew 4-4 to Man United and know that this is a team that can concede, and will press accordingly. 2-1 Bournemouth score prediction from me.
Man oh man this Burnley side was not ready for the Premier League. After being the defensive juggernauts of Championship, they've been humbled by the attacking power of the top flight. Not only have they lost seven matches straight, but they've been leaking goals left and right. Fulham put three past them, Newcastle two, Brentford three, West Ham three, it's been ugly. Burnley can only win if they score 2+ goals, because their defense can't stop anyone. I expect goals from both ends and the over to clear.
This is an extremely complicated matchup for a variety of reasons. I'm going to focus on how these teams operate from losing positions. These teams are similar in the sense that they both seem to do better after conceding. Brighton have pulled a massive 11 points this season from losing positions which is the third in the league. Second in the league, is Sunderland, who have pulled back 12 points from losing positions. I think it takes a bit to see the opening goal, and once we see it, fight or flight kicks in, which could see a low scoring draw. 1-1 score prediction is +700 on MGM if you're feeling crazy!