Jon's Past Picks
West Ham are such an interesting club. They are this historic giant club with a whole plethora of support and praise, and right now they're fighting to avoid relegation, sitting 18th on the table. The good thing they have going for them though, is it does look like they're starting to turn things around. After a catastrophic start to their season, they've now avoided defeat in three of their last five matches, and they've also covered the spread in four of their last five. This is a team that was able to take points off Newcastle, Burnley and Bournemouth all in November, and will look to keep things tight against a shaky at best Manchester United side.
Leeds are having a tough time finding their identity since they returned to the Premier League. They are currently sitting 18th on the table, in the relegation zone, just one spot against fellow promoted side Burnley. They keep changing up their playstyles trying to find what works for them, which is good for us when betting on goals! They've switched to a high-line and are pressing regardless of how good their opponents are. They've now hit over 2.5 goals in five matches straight, and score twice against Man City last week. Expecting goals once again for Leeds!
Chelsea will come into this matchup absolutely ecstatic after taking a point off Arsenal earlier this week at Stamford Bridge. They managed a 1-1 draw even after Moises Caicedo was sent off in the 38th minute. That draw, and a 3-0 butt-whooping against Barcelona means Leeds have to welcome Chelsea at a tough time. To make it even tougher, Chelsea are expecting to finally welcome back their best goal-scorer, Cole Palmer. Palmer will be itching to find the scoresheet, and I'm expecting goals, and a victory for The Blues.
I'll be the first one to admit that Wolves looked like a competent team when they played against Aston Villa last week. It's the best they've looked the entire season, and they still, lost the match. Maybe they'll find some motivation in keeping things close against a strong Aston Villa club, but for the time being, they are still last on the table, haven't won a match, and have the worst defense and offense in the league. Forest will be desperate to bounce back after getting smacked by Brighton, and a match against Wolves is the perfect opportunity to do that.
The trademark unbreakable defense that Arsenal had early in this season is showing some serious cracks. While they're still obviously doing wonderful this season, they've now conceded in four matches straight. Gabriel missing in their defense is allowing teams to not win, but score, which was a rarity the first 10 matchdays. Arsenal is now longer playing to win for cagey 1-0 matches, they've having to press for multiple goals. Brentford will know this is a chance to go for points, and attack while the Gunner backline is weakest. I love the over here, and BTTS as well.
Real Madrid are not a team we're used to talking about when using the word rough, but man have they looked rough in recent matches. They are currently without a win in their last three LaLiga matches, and their defense has been worrisome to say the least. They recently played Girona, who are 18th on the table and are sitting in a relegation spot, and draw. Not only did they draw, but they made Girona look good. Madrid has loads and loads more talent than Athletic Club, but I'm not backing Madrid until they fix whatever is going on both on and off the pitch. If they play how they did against Girona or Elche, they'll lose this outright.
Newcastle enter this game off a rare road victory after stomping down Everton 4-1. Newcastle is a club that is known for their home success, but can sometimes struggle to find positive results on the road. One thing we have see from The Magpies recently, is a whole lot of goals. Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 goals has now hit in their last four matches straight across all competitions. Nick Woltemade continues to lead the attack, but players like Malick Thiaw and Harvey Barnes are bolstering the ranks. Spurs defense has been shoddy, and I'm expecting St. James' Park to once again see goals.
These two teams have played each other and incredible five times over the last year and a half. They've had friendlies, EPL matches and the EFL Cup last season. Those five matches have been brutal for Spurs, who lost four times and drew once. Their last four matches at St. James' Park, they've been outscored 14-2. This is a brutal place for anyone to play, and is the type of travel where teams can be mentally defeated before even showing up. Newcastle are in great form and Spurs are starting to flounder a bit. I'm expecting a high-scoring and decisive victory for the hosts.
Yes. I think a draw could be brewing in this matchup at Camp Nou. When I saw this matchup I was ready to bet on goals, and I was ready to bet on whichever club had the plus points on the spread. This game just screams a 2-2 final to me. Barcelona with their world-class attack and struggling defense, against an Atletico side who can struggle at Camp Nou, but have won their last seven matches across all competitions in dominating fashion. This is a massive matchup with some big points up for grabs - which is why I think both teams would be perfectly happy with a share of the spoils.
Say what you want about Hansi Flick's Barcelona squad, they're consistent that's for dang sure. They once again covered the over in their LaLiga match against Alaves last week after winning 3-1. Dani Olmo and Lamine Yamal continued to flex their attacking muscles while the Barcelona defense continued to struggle, after conceding in the very first minute. This is a massive match between two of the best clubs in Spain. Their last three matches against each other ended 4-2, 4-4, and 0-1. They have shown they can play defense sometimes, but it's not the norm. I will continue to bet this at plus odds every single week as long as Flick is still the manager.
Bournemouth matches have been an absolute delight and goals have come freely from both ends of the pitch frequently. In fact, Bournemouth have seen over 2.5 goals clear now in seven of their last eight matches when playing at home, and in four matches straight across all competitions. This team plays a wonderful Bundesliga style of footy where attack is the only thing that matters, which is why they've conceded 12 goals over their last four matches. Everton's offense isn't great, but frankly that shouldn't matter. Take BTTS and Over 2.5 goals here to get even better value!
Manchester City are such a frustrating team to bet on right now. They're frustrating, because even though they're having a "poor season" they're still second in the Premier League, even though they've lost a massive four matches. They're still the high-scoring juggernaut they always are, currently leading the league with 27 goals scored, but their defense has something off at the moment. The backline isn't connecting how they need to, and Leeds showed that they are susceptible on the counter attack. Fulham at home are good enough to score against anyone, and will be riding the high of beating Spurs. I expect goals on both ends, and the over to hit.
Manchester City astoundingly after picking up four losses in their opening 13 matches, are still second on the table and are currently five points behind Arsenal. While Pep's boys are having a bit of trouble find some consistency, these are the kind of matches that you can't really afford to lose. Fulham are 13 spots below City on the table. They currently have a mediocre attack and sub-par defense. They did however, just beat Spurs so they'll have some momentum going into this match. To be frank, even with momentum and home-field advantage, City should win by multiple goals. No UCL fixture this weeks means they can put all their focus into picking up a dire three points.
I'll say this every time. I hate betting unders. You can't ignore something that has hit every time these guys have played each other since 2022 though. These two clubs have clashed four times over the last two seasons, and over those four matches we saw a total of four goals. Out of the 20 clubs in LaLiga currently, only five are averaging less than one goal scored a match. Two of those five, are Valencia and Rayo Vallecano. I'm playing this for a partial unit because... well it's an under, but this match screams Valencia parking the bus and grinding this game to a slow draw once again.
Bologna have been on an absolute terror over the last month. The team has risen to fifth on the Serie A table, and did that by taking points off Udinese, Torino, and Napoli. This team has also shown a lot of firepower recently as we saw them dismantle RB Salzburg 4-1 when playing in UEFA play earlier last week. They are one of the few teams who are unbeaten at home this season, and I don't see that streak ending to a streaky Cremonese side who is coming off a brutal run of losses. Bologna's superior attack and defense should make this -1 spread worst case, push in my mind.
