This match is the EPL equivalent of Arsenal v Wolves. The question isn't, is Bayern Munich going to win? The question is, how much does Bayern Munich want to win this match by? When tehse two teams faced back in 2024 at Allianz Arena, Bayern Munich beat them 8-1, and Mainz are in worse form now than they were back then. This is going to be an ugly one and there's no way around that. Mainz are also going to be exhausted after playing Lech Poznan in a UEFA Conference match on Thursday, while Bayern Munich is welcoming back big names like Alphonso Davies and Luis Davies. If this was -3.5 goals on the spread, I'd still have taken it....

Right out the gate, if you don't like the juice on this over add in either Bayern ML or a 1h goal to get it down. Bayern Munich is just Barcelona 2.0 right now. You see them play in any competition, you bet on goals. Bayern Munich is so much fun to watch because they don't need 90 minutes to cash an over. Their UCL match against Sporting it was 0-0 at halftime, the match ended 3-1. Before that, they beat Stuttgart 5-0, with four second half bets. The over is never dead when Bayern Munich is playing, and Mainz is in for a bad time.

I don't care who knows it. I'll scream it atop the tallest mountain. I. Love. Leeds. I don't love them because they're some great team that's going to fight for top of the table. I love them because they don't give a damn. They come out every single week, and play like their hair is on fire. They don't care who they are against, they push for goals. They attack, and they treat every single opponent the exact same. They scored three against Liverpool, three against Chelsea, and two against Manchester City in their last three matches. There's no reason to not take the over here because Leeds is putting up at least two goals.

Short answer to my question in the title? I have no idea and I heavily disagree with it haha. It's not very often we see the line set at over 2.5 goals in a match including Dortmund. Frankly, if this line was -200 I'd still have taken it, we might have the opportunity for a fun little ladder action here! The over has hit every time these teams have played each other since 2020. 10 times in a row we've seen the over. I know both clubs are going to be tired after UEFA competitions, but that shouldn't be moving the line this much. Take over 2.5 , and sprinkle the 3.5 as well!

Dortmund are having themselves a pretty typical season right now. They're third on the Bundesliga table and tenth on the Champions League table. They'll make a deep run in UCL and finish top three per the norm. Also per the norm, I expect them to use Freiburg as punching bag this weekend. For whatever reason, when these two teams play, Dortmund always seems to find incredible form. They've now beaten Freiburg 7 matches straight in head-to-head. Across those seven matches they've also scored a staggering 28 times. It doesn't matter if they're at home or on the road, this matchup is not kind to Freiburg.

I don't buy this line at all. I just don't. I know -190 is just disgustingly high, so take DNB if you want a more favorable line. Forest have won three of their last five league matches, but that came against Wolves, Leeds, and an out of form Liverpool. Then they play a tough opponent like Everton and get smacked around 3-0. I trust the attack of Spurs. Kudus, Simons and Richarlison have been impressing me. The more they play together, they stronger they get, and I believe they win, or worst case, draw.

I'll start with the easy head-to-head stat that backs this. The over 2.5 has hit in their last four matches straight in league play between these two sides. In fact, the over 3.5 has hit as well in all four of those matches. The last four matches between these two have seen 21 goals, averaging over five goals scored. Palace knows how to score against City, they are one of the only teams in the Premier League that consistently gives them a real run for their money, and Palace are in tremendous form right now. I'm expecting BTTS to hit if you want to add that to get the juice down, but I think Palace keep this very close. Oh, and Haaland ATGS LOL.

The instant reminder that this is a Derby, so you have to throw logic out the door just a smidge. To my NCAAF fans, think of this like a smaller version of Ohio State versus Michigan. This is a rivalry match, that tends to carry aa bit more aggression and is a bit more prone to upsets, so I'm just going half unit here. That being said - Newcastle matches for a while now have been freaking awesome for goals. Their last seven matches across all competitions have seen both BTTS and over 2.5 goals hit. They'll be tired, but out for blood against a big rival. Expect goals here, and potentially a cheeky red card or penalty.

Ohhhh baby. This is going to be a train wreck. We have the two absolute worst teams in Italy clashing. Verona and Fiorentina have played a combined 28 matches of Serie A this season. Out of those 28 matches, there's been a single win. Fiorentina remains the only team in Serie A, B, or C that hasn't picked up a win. To call their season shambolic would be too kind. Regardless, this is the match where they need to do something. Fiorentina need to win. They need to get points while taking points away from other teams facing relegation. Expect chaos in this match as desperation will be palpable on the pitch between two abysmal defenses.

Ahhh we meet again. Another matchup that has a tremendously high scoring team (Sevilla) playing a team that refuses to score goals. Oviedo have a shocking, seven goals scored so far this season over 15 matches. Less than one goal scored every two combined games. The thing that's so frustrating about Oviedo, is not just the fact they don't score goals, it's that they sit back and play for nil-nil draws. Three of their last five matches ended 0-0. The other two, 1-0 and 2-0. I don't think Oviedo will score here, and I see a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Sevilla, with the under cashing.

I'm trying to think of a nicer phrase to use than "An absolute blowout" when describing how this match should go, but I can't think of anything else. Wolves are one of the worst teams we've seen in the Premier League, ever. 15 matches into the season, they have yet to win a game. They have the worst defense in the league. They have the worst offense in the league. They have 2 points to their name. They're playing the best team in the world, who need points to stay ahead of Man City. Arsenal might win this match 5-0 or 6-0. This spread is light, and at plus money, I have to take it. Gyokeres brace incoming!

I can only be mean to Wolves so much before I start feeling bad. All you need to know about this over is that if Wolves manage to score, that's fantastic, but even if they don't, i still think this cashes. You can take Arsenal over 2.5 TT if you want a "safer" bet as well. Arsenal just beat Club Brugge, a much better team that Wolves 3-0. They did that while resting Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka, and Eberechi Eze. They didn't need some of their best goal scorers and still put up three. They're expected to play their better strikers this match, and they might run this up to here even over 4.5 or 5.5 hit.

This is a wildly disrespectful line for how well Cagliari have been playing, especially considering Atalanta are going to be exhausted after hosting Chelsea in UCL play and not getting proper rest. Cagliari are coming into this match off the back of a win over Roma, a draw over Napoli, a 2-1 loss to Juve, and draws against Como and Genoa. This is a side that doesn't crumble under pressure. If they go down 1-0, they don't lose their minds and panic, they lock in and get a goal back. Atalanta are the better side, but they are not the better side by a 1.5 spread. I see a draw here.

If you don't like the -150 I have absolutely no problem adding in a nice little BTTS action to get that juice down. I saw the same thing every single week with Barcelona. Don't overthink it - just bet on goals. 16 matches played in LaLiga with 47 goals scored and 20 goals conceded. Their matches have averaged 4.18 goals per game, and they're taking an Osasuna side who have hit over 3.5 in three of their last four matches across all competitions. Pick any of the Barcelona starters to score, sit back, and enjoy the fireworks at Spotify Camp Nou.

Fulham, the club that started their season off with six matches in a row going under 2.5 goals, have changed their mindset in recent weeks. They gave us the shock match of the entire season so far, when they pumped four goals past Manchester City last week, and, somehow, still lost . Fulham have now seen their last three matches hit BTTS and over 2.5 goals, and they've shown that they can score against solid defenses, having already scored multiple times against City and Tottenham. Burnley is not longer a defensive juggernaut like we saw in Championship. If they want points of Fulham, they have to go for goals. This is an easy over for me.