Jon's Picks (1 Live)
I know that -188 is some serious juice, but if you don't like this, take the over 3.5 for plus money instead! While the Bundesliga title race is mostly over already with Bayern Munich pulling further and further ahead, that doesn't mean Dortmund can take their foots off the gas yet needing to secure another UCL spot on the table. They continue to dominate at home and their recent games have let the goals flow. Hamburg are safely in the middle of the table, but their defense will struggle against a Dortmund team that might cover the over by themselves.
I will be the first person to admit that Newcastle played an incredible first leg at St. James Park. They were the better team for 90+5 minutes, and still, managed only a draw. A controversial decision gave Barcelona a penalty at the last play of the game, as Barca left equal on goals. Now, Newcastle have the daunting and brutal task of traveling to Spain to take on Barcelona on their turf. Newcastle needed a lead after leg one, because I think Barcelona now win by multiple goals with home field advantage.
The first leg I took under 2.5 goals on the sit hovering around +110, now, as both teams are all tied up after the first leg, I'm doing it again for the second. This Arsenal team is going back to their park the bus ways as they look to physically and mentally break down their opponents, while waiting for their set pieces. They put on a defensive masterclass against Everton over their weekend fixture, and being at home, against a tired Leverkusen side, we should see another cagey, low-scoring victory, as Arsenal qualify for the next round.
Chelsea under new manager Rosenior starting his tenure off strong as the "New Manager Bounce" could be seen across all areas of the pitch. The longer this team plays, however, the more cracks we are seeing develop in how this team plays. This Chelsea side are still running with an extreme lack of discipline. Red cards continue to plague them, and their defense looked lost and disjointed against PSG in the first leg. While PSG are up on goals, and frankly don't need to win, I don't think that will matter. Even a rotate PSG side will look to embarrass a Chelsea team who can't seem to piece it together.
Villarreal continue to be one of the more complicated teams to get reads on in LaLiga play. The team looked unbeatable for the first 18 matchdays, then fell apart for a couple months, and no appear to be back in action as they fight for a UCL finish. While Villarreal is finding their form again and have won three of their last five, Alaves are in a free fall. They're now 16th on the table after failing to win any of their last six matches, and are just two points ahead of the relegation zone. Alaves have upcoming matches they can win, this is not one of them.
Parma is not a team we generally talk about when we talk about the Italian clubs really performing, but man do they look good so far in 2026. They are currently on an unbeaten run over their last five matches. During that streak, we saw them beat Verona, take down Milan, sneak ahead of Bologna, and draw against Fiorentina. This is a team that is no longer being written off as a free three points, and I'm not expecting a Torino side, that is limping to the finish line, to beat them.
Bodo is so much fun to watch, especially when playing at home. Their last six matches of UCL play not only saw the over 2.5 goals hit, but saw BTTS hit as well - so add that if you want to get the juice down. This is a team that knows damn well they need to make something big happen in this first leg against Sporting. Players like Jens Petter Hauge and Kasper Waarst Hogh will lead the charge, and will look to do the same thing Bodo has done for the last two months. Score goals. Sporting are good enough to break down Bodo's backline, and I'm expecting this to be the highest scoring match of the day.
Bodo Glimt are a team that absolutely nobody, and I mean NOBODY, expected to still be in this competition. Bodo Glimt were given a 0.3% chance of qualifying entering the last matchday of Champions League, and they did it. The miracle run didn't end there as the Norwegian side knocked out Inter, winning at home 3-1, and at San Siro 2-1. This team when playing at home is straight up diabolical. They have beaten Manchester City, Inter Milan, Sturm Graz all at home in UCL this season. They play on an artificial pitch that teams aren't used to, and they should continue their home heater against Sporting, who will be focused on the second leg.
The head to head history between these two teams in recent years is tasty. They've played five times since 2023. All five of those matches saw BTTS cash, and four of those matches saw the over 2.5 hit as well. The fact that these clubs in different leagues play pretty much every year does give us a unique opportunity to see how they match up. City love to press high against Real Madrid, and Real Madrid love to counter-attack without City. Even though Real Madrid are missing their best goal scoring in Mbappe, I still expect them to try to make something happen at home. Goals should flow at Bernabéu.
These two teams seem to end up playing each other every year in Champions League. They've played each other five times over the last three seasons, and Real Madrid have dominated those matches. However, this year is different, and Man City knows that. Real Madrid will not have two of their best players available. Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham are injured and will miss this game. Real Madrid is frankly, not close to the same side without them. Even though this is Real Madrid, at home, without those players, Manchester City will play to take over this tie in the first leg. Expect City to attack, and I expect them to win both legs of this tie.
We have a replay of the FIFA Club World Cup Final as the giants of Paris will host Liam Rosenior' Chelsea. PSG have been looking forward to this match knowing it's a chance at redemption after getting stomped by Chelsea this past summer. Chelsea, will be looking to hold on for dear life during the first leg, with hopes of capitalizing the second leg at Stamford Bridge. I do like goals in this match more than anything. Look at how Chelsea play football right now. Goals everywhere. 4-2 win over Wrexham, 4-1 over Villa, 2-1 loss to Arsenal. No defense with a good offense. I'm expecting goals all over the pitch for both sides.
There are so many amazing matches taking place in the round of 16. We have a bracket loaded with absolute killers and goal scorers from all over Europe. I'm expecting goals in just about every UCL match over the next couple days. This match is the exception. I'm expecting, absolutely nothing in this match. Arsenal are the kings, of winning frustrating, controlling, cagey matches. My score prediction is 1-0 Arsenal (+600 if you want to sprinkle it). Arsenal will play amazing defense like always, probably have 80 possession, and score off a corner. It's frustrating, but it works, so why would they change their strategies?
It might seem a bit weird to many that Spurs, the team that is facing potential relegation, sitting 16th on the table, are in the Champions League round of 16. They are in fact still in this competition, but I'm expecting a pretty swift exit for the Premier League side. Spurs do care about UCL, but as weird as this will also sound, their priority should be staying in the Premier League. This could be one of the only times in UCL history we see a team rest players in UCL, to prep for an EPL match. Long story short, I expect Atleti to absolutely demolish Spurs.
Newcastle over the last couple seasons have been an absolute juggernaut across all competitions, especially when playing at home. They have been one of those clubs teams fear traveling to play against, as their stadium and fans intimidate and drown out visiting support. Newcastle this season, just haven't been the same. They finished fifth last season, and now are in the bottom half this season. They've also been dropping points to weak opposition, as they struggle to fix their poor defense. Barcelona, even on the road, will feast here, and I expect them to win this by multiple goals.