Somewhat surprised the action is not heavier on the Colts in this spot given all the frustrations with the Texans offense and Nico Collins remaining out. Still, here’s why that doesn’t bother me: Indianapolis has beat up on either inexperienced, poor or offensively inefficient teams this season, while Houston’s defeats have come against two of the NFC’s best teams. CJ Stroud has historically played better at home, and while Collins is out, Stefon Digs and Tank Dell have proven more than capable of helping him bounce back. Plus, Joe Mixon should eat against the NFL’s second-lowest ranked run defense, and DeMeco Ryans will take advantage of Anthony Richardson’s indecision. I’d have preferred Houston at -4, but on a frustrating Sunday slate, it’s a play.

This is a tough game from an ATS standpoint. But these clubs have engaged in some wild affairs of late, and combined for 56 points in their Week 1 meeting despite neither offense looking terribly efficient. Look for them to hit the Over again.

Wishing I got the key number of 46 before the line moved, but I still feel the Under is a worth a play. All reports indicate that Colts QB Anthony Richardson will make the start against the Texans, which green lights this Under for me. Richardson's passing accuracy has been atrocious. He also ranks dead last against the blitz, according to PFF (29.8 passing grade). Texans coach Demeco Ryans is a defensive-minded game planner, who will likely throw some tricky looks at Richardson. The Colts defense has finally gotten healthier, and will return elite DT DeForest Buckner. Their secondary has also quietly started to improve. I see this divisional clash going Under the total.

Mixon faced the Colts in Week 1 and ran for 159 yards on 30 carries. It was a sign of things to come for Indianapolis. The Colts just can't stop the run, allowing 160 rushing yards per game. Opposing teams average 28.3 carries against Indy and I expect Mixon to see a heavy workload on Sunday.

The Colts called eight designed runs for Anthony Richardson last week, plus he scrambled six times to finish with 14 carries. True, Jonathan Taylor is coming back Sunday, but his presence should open up lanes for Richardson. Moreover, Richardson will be facing a fierce Texans' pass rush (they're tied for fourth in sacks).

The Houston Texans are returning from two outdoor away games against the Patriots and Pacers. Returning home they will face an Indianapolis Colts team that has played them close the last three matchups. Anthony Richardson as sporadic as his play can be, has looked comfortable against the Texans last season and this year in which he led the Colts to a backdoor cover. Texans win, but Colts cover this aggressive number.

Stroud has been far more effective in home games this season, and the Colts rank in the bottom third of the NFL in passing defense. I expect a big day from the former Ohio State star on Sunday.

Houston won a nail-biter the when these teams met in Week 1, but I see this one being more decisive. The Texans ran all over the Colts in their last meeting, and while I think he has a chance to be really good, I still do not trust Indy QB Anthony Richardson. CJ Stroud has been much better at home this season, and I expect the second-year QB to have a big performance on Sunday. Texans by 6+ here.

The Colts are 6-1 against the spread and have covered their last five games which is why the Texans appear cheap at -5. There's no doubt that the Colts are tough team and play hard but it helps when you play the Jaguars, Titans, and Dolphins in their last three. The Texans are just hitting their stride and putting together good drives while covering their last three. They also feature the number two defense in the NFL allowing only 277 yards per game. The defense is where the Colts fall short with the 29th ranked squad allowing 382 yards per game. Texans to cover.

He has become a major drive finisher for the Texans, especially when able to handle a major workload due to health and with Nico Collins out. And he can bulldoze this defense. Mixon has hit this in two straight weeks. Mixon has played in just 4 games but has more than three times as many RZ touches as any Texan, and has rushing and receiving TDs in the redzone in that span. Add in his ability to take a screen pass or rush to the house from beyond 20 yards, and it wouldn't shock me at all to see him cash this for a third straight week. Texans OC is being super risk averse, CJ Stroud down some top weapons and Mixon sets physical tone.

Jonathan Taylor is set to return to the Colts lineup after missing the teams previous three games. We're getting a sizable discount on Taylor's rushing line as it is usually set between 75 and 85. I'm confident that Taylor is at full strength considering he practiced in full Thursday which is a great indication he should receive his normal workload. The Texans are a stout run defense but Taylor and the Colts still boast an elite offensive line and PFF has them presently ranked 4th.

Stroud averages over 311/G at home in his brief career, he is his own worst critic coming off his worst game as a pro and he is facing a defense that sucks and which is has carved up all 3 times he's faced them (averaging 295/G vs IND). Yes, they aren't as potent downfield this year, but Stroud just threw for 234 vs them Week 1, on a day when they ran 40 times (not happening here). Stroud is over this in 9 of his 11 home games

Texans OC Bobby Slowik has been too conservative and run-heavy, but we will use that to our advantage here (and I still like some CJ Stroud props, too). Mixon ran all over the Colts Week 1, their run D still stinks (21 in YPC) and Texans having some issues in pass pro. I think they try to road grade with Mixon leading the way. Mixon has at least 100 rushing yards in the three games in which he has double-digit carries and he has had great success vs the Colts in his career. Colts are the most run on team in the NFL and it's taking a toll. Even if DeForrest Buckner returns, they have issues up front and outside runs will still gut them.

Indianapolis scored 27 points at home vs. Houston in Week 1 and I see no reason why it can't get to 20 points on Sunday as Indy has reached that number in five of seven games. Decent chance that Jonathan Taylor is back this week as well. Our model has the Colts with 21 points, but I wouldn't personally play Over 20.5.

The Texans won the first meeting and looked explosive doing so, but they won't have Nico Collins this time. Collins caught six passes for 117 yards in the 29-27 Houston win. Indy is optimistic that DeForest Buckner and Jonathan Taylor will return Sunday. You have to go back to 2012 to find a matchup in which Houston beat the Colts by 7-plus points. These division rivals are extremely familiar with each other, which breeds tight games. Grab the points.

Rematch from week one. The Colts are getting six points and will have RB Jonathan Taylor and DT DeForest Buckner back. Love it. The Colts have not won or lost by more than six points in their seven games this season. Last season, they defeated Houston by eleven points and lost by four points. Nico Collins, who won't be playing, has been a problem for the Colts, with 117 receiving yards in week one, 195 receiving yards on January 6th, and 149 receiving yards on September 17th, 2023. The Colts can focus on stopping the Texans' run game, and they have allowed the fourth-fewest sacks, while Houston ranks 24th. These teams have the same point differential (+0.9), and Houston has played a slightly tougher schedule.

The Texans get back home vs a familiar opponent – that bodes well for them. CJ Stroud is a different guy at home, going over 300 yards a game, airing it out more. And Texans ran it down the Colts throats in Week 1 and could do that again here, too. Anthony Richardson is very raw, and Texans will turn him over like they did Week 1 and like they did to Jordan Love on Sunday. Stroud has a 114.9 rating vs the Colts in three meetings and the Texans held the ball for 40 minutes in the first meeting this year. Somehow that ended up a two-point game but I don’t see that happening again. Colts not as good as their record.