Martin's Past Picks
Under 2.5 goals has paid off in the last five meetings between Rayo Vallecano and Valencia, so this promises to be a low-scoring game. Rayo Vallecano’s home games have averaged just 1.2 goals this season. They’ve scored just 3 times in 5 matches, and they’ve only conceded 3 goals. None of their home games have seen over 2.5 goals, so this isn’t exactly shaping up to be a classic. Valencia’s away record is poor, as they’ve scored just 3 goals in 6 games on the road, so they’re unlikely to cause many problems for Rayo’s tight defense.
This should be an entertaining game between two fierce local rivals. Over 2.5 goals has paid off in 77% of Sevilla’s games so far this season. It’s also landed in 6 of their last 7 matches. Their games have averaged 3.08 goals, while games featuring Real Betis have averaged 2.62 goals. Real Betis beat Sevilla 2-1 in their last meeting, and Sevilla will now be determined to gain revenge.
Strasbourg should be full of confidence after beating Crystal Palace in midweek. Their Ligue 1 form has been inconsistent, but they boast a strong home record this season. They’ve won 5 out of 6 games at Stade de la Meinau, with 13 goals scored and just 2 conceded. Meanwhile, Brest have gone backwards this season. They’re 14th in the Ligue 1 table, 8 points behind Strasbourg, and they’ve lost 4 out of 6 away games. They suffered a 3-0 defeat at Marseille in their last away match, which doesn’t bode well.
Everton are surging with momentum after beating Fulham 2-0 and Man Utd 1-0 in their last two games. Goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has been superb, and the defense looks rock-solid right now. Everton’s forwards aren’t exactly setting the world alight, but the Toffees keep grinding out results. Under 2.5 goals has paid off in two-thirds of their games this season. Newcastle are strong at home, but they struggle on the road. Their away matches have averaged 1.83 goals, so this could be another low-scoring clash.
Man City should be too strong for Leeds this weekend. Manager Pep Guardiola rested several key players for their midweek Champions League game, including star striker Erling Haaland. The Norwegian striker will be raring to go, and he could run riot against Leeds. Man City have won 5 out of 6 home games this season, scoring 16 goals and conceding just 4. Meanwhile, Leeds have lost 5 of their 6 away games, and they tend to struggle against the best teams in the league.
Liverpool desperately need a morale-boosting win after enduring a dismal run of results. The Reds have fallen into the bottom half of the Premier League table after losing six of their last seven games. Their EPL title defense now lies in tatters, but they’re still going strong in the Champions League. Liverpool have won three of their four Champions League games, and they beat Real Madrid last time out. The Reds are in a full-blown crisis, but they could take out their frustrations on PSV, whose defense is brittle.
This should be an entertaining game between two strong teams. Dortmund have scored 13 goals in four Champions League games this season, but they’ve also conceded 11 times. That means their UCL games have seen an average of six goals. They drew 3-3 with Stuttgart at the weekend, which underlined their attacking dynamism and defensive frailties. Villarreal could cause problems for Dortmund’s struggling defense. They’re now third in La Liga after beating Mallorca 2-1 at the weekend. They’ve scored 2 goals per game in the league this season, and they now need to replicate that form in the Champions League.
Galatasaray should extend their winning streak to four Champions League games when they host Union Saint Gilloise in Istanbul. The Turkish champions have already beaten Liverpool at home this year, and they then thumped Bodo/Glimt and Ajax in their last two games. They boast a great deal of firepower, so they should outgun USG, who've lost their last three UCL matches.
PSG beat Bayern Munich 2-0 in the quarterfinals of the Club World Cup this summer. The Parisians had two players sent off in the closing stages of that game, but they remained superior to Bayern. They’ve won all three Champions League games so far this season, scoring 13 goals in the process. PSG beat Barcelona on the road, and they thumped Leverkusen 7-2 in their last match. Bayern Munich are dangerous, and Harry Kane is in fine form, but PSG should ultimately outclass them.
Arsenal should be too strong for Slavia Prague when the teams meet in the Czech capital this week. The Gunners are on a nine-game winning streak in all competitions. They’ve covered a 1.5-goal spread in all three of their Champions League matches this season. Arsenal beat Athletic Bilbao 2-0, Olympiakos 2-0, and Atlético Madrid 4-0. Those teams are all better than Slavia Prague, who are winless in this season’s Champions League. Arsenal really should win this game by at least 2 goals, even if they rest a few players.
Toulouse have scored 2.6 goals per game at home this season. Only PSG and Monaco have scored more goals in front of their home fans than Les Violets. They should have enough firepower to beat Le Havre at Stadium de Toulouse this weekend. Le Havre are in form right now, but they’ve conceded 2 goals per game on the road. That doesn’t bode well for a game against free-scoring Toulouse. It’s also worth noting that Toulouse beat Le Havre home and away last season by an aggregate scoreline of 6-1.
Monaco look capable of extending their unbeaten streak to seven games when they host newly promoted Paris FC at Stade Louis II this weekend. They’re up to second in the Ligue 1 table after beating Toulouse and Nantes in their last two matches. Monaco are very strong at home, with four wins and a draw from five games this season. Paris FC have lost three of their five away games. They’re on a three-game winless streak, and they could struggle at Stade Louis II.
Brighton should be too strong for Leeds at the Amex this weekend. The Seagulls are unbeaten at home this season, with two wins and two draws from four games. Meanwhile, Leeds don’t travel well – they’ve lost three of their four away games, conceding nine goals in the process. Brighton have superior players than Leeds in most departments, and they should win this game without too much trouble.
Crystal Palace should be full of confidence after beating Liverpool 3-0 on Wednesday. They rested several key players for that EFL Cup game, so the likes of Jean-Philippe Mateta and Tyrick Mitchell will now be fresh. The Eagles are winless in their last three Premier League games, but they should bounce back on Saturday. Brentford have lost three of their four away games so far this season, and they could be outclassed at Selhurst Park. Palace beat Brentford home and away last season, and they look even stronger now.
Stuttgart should be full of confidence after winning their last four games. They moved up to third in the Bundesliga table following a 3-0 victory over Wolfsburg last weekend. Stuttgart also have a perfect home record this season: three wins from three games at MHP Arena, with four goals scored and zero conceded. They may be tired after a midweek trip to Turkey, but they should still have enough quality to beat Mainz at home. Mainz have lost five out of seven games this season, and they’re likely to be outclassed.
