Cardinals RB James Conner broke off a big run after the catch last week against the Chargers, that was essentially the game-winning play. Conner has cleared this receiving yards total in three straight weeks, getting 3+ targets in each game. With Conner's ability to break tackles and gain yards after contact, we may only need one or two looks for this to cash. Kyler Murray can extend plays with his legs, and check down to Conner for positive gains on broken plays.

Getting Tyreek Hill to score at plus money here seems like great value. All reports indicate that Hill is good to go this week despite some injury concerns. With QB Tua Tagovailoa back under center, the Dolphins will actually be able to throw the ball downfield. Miami's offense can get right back to its explosive ways, with Hill as a focal point. The 2-4 Dolphins need a shot of life injected into their season. I'm seeing a Tyreek Hill TD do just that, early on in this game.

If Tua restores the needed functionality to a Miami offense that was lifeless without him, the Dolphins should get back on track against a Arizona team that appears incapable of putting together consecutive strong performances.

Trying not to overreact to the return of QB Tua Tagovailoa from another concussion-related rehab. He was sharp in the opener before going down, so here's hoping he picks up from there rather than cautiously dip his toe back in the water. Almost as significant would be the presence of WR Tyreek Hill, who has been questionable. If he can go, Tua will have his favorite aerial sidekick. Their task gets easier with CBs Sean Murphy-Bunting and Max Melton watching from the sidelines, and the Arizona defense even at full strength is hardly daunting.

I am late to the party on this spread, but I think the Dolphins handle business with QB Tua Tagovailoa back under center. This is an entirely different offense when Tagovailoa is at the helm, and he will have his full compliment of weapons. The Cardinals pulled off a scrappy win on Monday Night Football over the Chargers, but certainly had the ball bounce their way. Now they are in a brutal scheduling spot, as they head from West-to-East on a short week to play the Dolphins for a 1pm ET game. Don't let one game fool you; this Cardinals defense is not good. I expect a healthy Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill & Devon Achane to exploit it.

Tua Tagovailoa is back at quarterback for the Dolphins since being knocked out against the Bills in week two. But you know the thing about the Dolphins is they didn't look so hot and week one against the Jaguars that they won but didn't cover. In fact in their last nine games they've only covered one game and that was against the Patriots three weeks ago. I'm not saying that the Cardinals are the greatest team coming out but they've got more of a team semblance than the Dolphins do right now. The Dolphins have won the last two meetings and covered the last three but I think the Cardinals passing game gets on track with their wide receivers and get the win. Cardinals cover.

Jonnu Smith is coming off a season best 76% route participation which is a high mark at the TE position. Jonnu’s role in the Miami offense has continue to grown every week and he’s coming off two strong games where he compiled 15 targets, 158 receiving yards, and 12 receptions. I like his chances of eclipsing 27 this week in what could be a shootout against the Cardinals.

Hard to see a scenario where the Dolphins broken offense doesn't make a concerted effort to get this guy going deep after a lost season so far with Tua Tagovailoa dealing with a concussion. He is over this in just 1 of his last 4 full home games with Tua ... but had a run of 7 straight with a long of 29 or more at home prior to that. Cardinals defense has all kinds of issues. Hill is over this in 7 of the last 13 full games he has played with Tua overall. They desperately need to re-establish him as an elite deep threat.

Since returning from injury, Mostert has at least 50 rush yards in each of his past two games. And he's looked good too, not like someone playing through injury like he was at the beginning of the season. I think the Dolphins have learned to lean on him without Tua Tagovailoa, and I don't think that changes with their QB returning this week. Arizona's run defense was surprisingly good last week, but I don't buy it. Before Week 7, the Cardinals allowed 5.2 yards per rush to running backs in their four prior games, and a slew of RBs have found at least 40 yards on the Cardinals this year.

Tua Tagovailoa is back and so are the prospects of a competent Miami offense. Look for Achane to be one of the beneficiaries of this development. He played nearly 60% of the snaps in Miami's backfield last week in his return from a concussion, including nearly 70% on passing downs. It's very possible that we could see a 50/50 rushing-receiving yard day from the elusive running back. Arizona has allowed six running backs over this total thus far this season.

This is where you want Kyler Murray. The line keeps moving in the other direction and all the attention is on Tua's return. Kyler is 13-6 ATS in 1pm kickoffs and he is 18-6-2 as a road dog. He is providing explosive plays on the ground and James Conner can control the game on the ground. Miami's offense looked off even before Tua's injury, and this is already a high-pressure, must-win spot for the Fins and the QB has only been back to practice a few days. Cardinals made some serious adjustments to a bad run D to shutdown the Chargers. Cards D isnt great but has also faced a Murder's Row of offenses and QBs. They can muck the game up and keep close

Murray's legs have never been more vital to this offense and he has a run of 21+ in 6 of his last 8 games. That gets us more than halfway home. He's run for 45 yards or more in 5 of the last 7 games. The only times he didn't go over this in that stretch, he was playing in blowout losses where it didnt really make sense. In competitive games, this is a key aspect and I like the Cardinals chances of winning this game. The only team Miami has seen any volume from QB runs was last week, when Anthony Richardson ran for 56 yards on them.

It's pretty shameful that Mike McDaniel couldn't scheme anything up to make this All Pro speedster remotely useful while Tua Tagovailoa was out ... But Tua looks like he's back and Hill is a TD machine with him at the helm and Tua sounds pretty defiant these days about chucking the ball all over the place. We are getting value with Hill in a slump in what was a rudderless offense but he can get behind this secondary and you know Tua will be looking to re-establish this connection. Only takes one to cash.

Justin Herbert just threw for 349 yards against this Arizona defense, and Herbert didn't have many quality weapons. In Tua Tagovailoa's return, he'll have a wealth of playmakers surrounding him. And he should be able to avoid the Cardinals' heavily-depleted pass rush. The 3s are disappearing in the market so I'm willing to lay -120. Practice reports on Tagovailoa are extremely positive. Look for the host Dolphins to save their season and improve to 3-4 before next week's showdown with Buffalo.

I'm going to play a little on this moneyline price now and may come back and play it again heavier if Tua Tagovailoa is cleared to return from his concussion on Sunday, which it sounds like will happen as he will practice on Wednesday. But then the ML might not be playable price-wise. Do I think the Fins can win without Tua? Yes as Arizona is not that great, will be on a short week after playing tonight vs. a very physical Chargers team, and it's a 10 a.m. local time kick for the Cards. While Arizona never had any grand designs on this season, this is it for 2-4 Miami in terms of realistically earning a third straight WC spot.

Tua Tagovailoa is expected to return to action this week, and if you want to make sure he's back before getting behind the Dolphins, I wouldn't blame you. But I don't think this line lasts on 3 for long, so I'm laying the points now. The Dolphins have been running the ball well and playing good defense (albeit against some bad offenses), so the missing piece is a functional passing attack. That changes when Tagovailoa is back on the field and feeding the team's playmakers rather than Jonnu Smith over and over. Miami gets at least three points for the best home-field advantage in the league, and they are unquestionably better than Arizona if Tua is at QB, so I'm jumping on it now.