New England
Patriots
NE
Last 5 ATS
W/L5-4
ATS3-5
O/U6-3-0
FINAL SCORE
29
-
26
Buffalo
Bills
BUF
Last 5 ATS
W/L7-1
ATS6-2
O/U5-3-0
Last 5 ATS
5-4
Win /Loss
7-1
3-5
Spread
6-2
6-3-0
Over / Under
5-3-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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Brown (ankle) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Dawkins (ribs) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Anderson (ankle) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Benford (wrist) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Shavers (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Head coach Joe Brady confirmed Friday that Hooker will play Sunday against the Jets, Sal Capaccio of WGR Sports Radio 550 Buffalo reports.
Schooler (hamstring) is questionable to play against the Lions on Sunday in Munich.
Following a full practice Friday, Byard (chest) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Lions in Munich.
Woods (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Lions in Munich.
Kincaid (ankle) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Despite a defense that leaves plenty to be desired, the Bills are 3-0 ATS on the season with no signs of slowing down. They also have a revenge mindset after being beaten by the Patriots at home last year. Even if Buffalo faces some difficulties early, there is nothing about New England’s offense that leads you to believe they can go up and down the field with the consistency needed to cover this number. On top of all that, the Pats are without their Christians – Gonazlez and Barmore are both out for the defense. The lack of line movement despite a huge betting disparity is somewhat concerning, but the Bills are the right side.
The Patriots' offense will awaken one of these days. Until it does, stay away from New England. It has fewer points (29) than possessions (30). QB Drake Maye is fending off rumors that a banged-up shoulder is impeding his throws and that he is not on the same page with coach Mike Vrabel. Maye’s passer rating is rock-bottom among NFL starters. Even if the Pats show some life with the ball, can it keep up with an opponent that has amassed 101 points in 32 possessions and goes against a defense minus injured standouts Christian Barmore (DT) and Christian Gonzalez (CB)? Doubtful.
FanDuel. Somewhat surprisingly, it’s Mack Hollins who leads the Patriots in catches, targets, receiving yards, and first read rate through three weeks. It’s no secret that Drake Maye has really struggled, but he’s been solid when targeting Hollins (12/16, 156 yards). This is perhaps why Hollins had a 30% first read rate last week, in an effort to get Maye going (it didn’t work for the QB). Against the Bills, the Patriots will likely need to keep up with the number one scoring offense - Buffalo has allowed the fourth most receiving yards per game to first reads (204). Hollins’ route share has been 65%+ in the two weeks without AJ Brown, and I’d be shocked if that changed. I’d bet this to over 48.5.
It's never ease to hit the Under on a Josh Allen prop but I'll give it a try this weekend. He's dealing with a knee injury of sorts and is facing a Patriots defense than hasn't allowed a quarterback to throw for 190 yards in three games. Look for Buffalo to lean on the running game, which has been highly effective this season. In two games against Mike Vrabel's defense last year, Allen threw for 253 yards (including 71 in the fourth quarter as Buffalo was chasing points) and 193 yards (in a comfortable win). I think the Bills QB ends up closer to 225 passing yards than 250 this week.
Both of these teams are coming off ugly games, with the Bills winning despite five turnovers and the Patriots getting pummeled by the Jaguars. I don't see the Bills' issues sticking around, but I have serious concerns about this Patriots team. The offense has scored two TDs in three games, with Drake Maye throwing six picks behind a questionable offensive line without his best weapon. I've had concerns about the Bills defense, but this should be a good matchup at home for the unit. Maybe the Patriots' defense bounces back and keeps the Bills within margin, but I'll trust Josh Allen to build a multiple-score lead that Maye won't be able to overcome.
