Playing the Browns here on an inflated price tag for a Steelers team in "must win" mode. Browns OL is healthier than it's been and this will be their proverbial superbowl to play spoiler. I won't bore you with X's and O's since this is a numbers play for me that came into range after the Ravens upset of the Packers on Saturday night.

MGM/B365. Another week, another Darnell Washington over. Washington has cleared this receiving yards line in five of his last seven games, coinciding with a bump in his snap and route share. The Steelers will be without receivers DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin on Sunday, which should open up even more opportunity for the massive tight-end. the Browns employ man-coverage at the league’s highest rate, and Washington now owns the highest target rate of the Steelers pass catchers against man (23.5%, per PFF), sans Metcalf. Weather will be gross, but Washington’s low average depth of target and YAC ability should keep him plenty involved. I’d bet this up to over 27.5 yards.

This looks like a classic late season spoiler spot for the eliminated Browns, against a division rival in need of a big win. The Browns defense has been elite, and the Dawg Pound will be barking in a raucous Cleveland atmosphere. Pittsburgh will be without both DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin, making them very thin at WR. The Steelers defense is also missing T.J Watt and two starting DBs. Myles Garret is a sack away from breaking the single season record, so the Browns defense should be playing fired up. Cleveland is live to win this game outright.

I have a feeling this line is gonna jump. I am playing this with Baltimore up 10 in Green Bay. If the Ravens had lost, I would have crushed the Browns to no end because the Steelers would have clinched the division. And they can with a win but if not, then it's all or nothing in Week 18 vs. the Ravens. It's hard for me to explain how much I dislike Aaron Rodgers (at least respected Favre). The Browns are obviously garbage and I would not take this spread (-3.5). But now I think the Steelers eke it out. Although if Myles Garrett wants to knock A-Rod into, I don't know, Season 3 of Landman, that works for me.

The Steelers have won the last two meetings with the Browns in Pittsburgh, but they've lost the last three in Cleveland. It took till the end of the season for the Steelers to step up, and they've won three games against three moderately good teams. What they've done is elevate their offense to being more aggressive and have gone over the total in the last three games. They go hand in hand. Cleveland has lost four games in a row, covering last week against the Bills. The Browns are still at the bottom of most NFL categories on offense. Steelers to cover.

Aaron Rodgers is about as ambulatory as my 92-year-old Euchre-playing, 7-and-7 drinking grandmother. Oh Eileen parties. But 1.25 sacks? I do think it's likely Myles Garrett gets the one to break the mark but it's not like the Steelers are just out here not caring. Although they could rest Rodgers if the Ravens lose Saturday night. This is simply math. Sometimes guys get credited with a half. MG has topped this in six games of 15 and he didn't get a sack in the first Steelers meeting.

Wish I had grabbed more than a field goal earlier in the week, but I’ll still back a Browns team that’s been far stronger at home. DK Metcalf is suspended. And if the Ravens lose as expected at Green Bay on Saturday night, the Steelers will clinch the AFC North and have little to play for. With Pittsburgh’s O-line banged up, this projects as a tight, low-scoring grinder in less than ideal conditions. Take the points.

Quarterbacks haven't needed to throw a lot against the Browns all year -- just two have passed 31-plus times including one in the past 10 games. Rodgers has been above this line in eight games, but all eight were either Steelers losses or close high-scoring wins. The game script for this week screams a slow-paced, run-heavy approach from the Steelers, particularly in a game they're favored to win on the road. There's also the possibility that the Steelers rest Rodgers for part of the game in the even the Ravens lose to the Packers the day before. Ultimately it feels like a light lift is coming for Rodgers.

Pittsburgh escaped by a whisker at Detroit and turns around for another road game against a feisty foe that won't give up. QB Aaron Rodgers will miss his favorite target if WR DK Metcalf's likely suspension is not overturned. Complicating the issue, No. 2 wideout Calvin Austin is uncertain with a hamstring. With Cleveland's Myles Garrett needing one sack to set the league's single-season record, the immobile Rodgers could feel non-stop heat. Six of the Browns' defeats have been by a touchdown or less -- and half of those by four or fewer points. Steelers, beware.