It has been an impressive run for the Chargers with four straight wins and covers while dealing with an offensive line hindered from the departure of Joe Alt. The Eagles nearly took advantage of that but were unable to get out of their own way offensively. The Texans should not have the same problem with Woody Marks back. There are concerns about CJ Stroud’s ability to attack the zone, which should make this a low-scoring game, but Justin Herbert on the other side is going to have trouble maintaining a clean jersey. Week 16 results are the reason Los Angeles is favored here as Houston put up a rough showing against Las Vegas. It gets right here.

I lean Houston in this matchup but the play that really stands out is the Chargers' team total under 20.5. Jim Harbaugh has done a great job finding ways to piece together an offensive line after so many key injuries this season. However, this is the worst possible matchup for a depleted line going against the fierce Texans' pass rush. Houston has held 12 of its 15 opponents to 20 points or less this season. I expect Justin Herbert to be under all kinds of pressure in what should be a low-scoring game.

Happy to see that we have another sharp analyst at Sportsline that is already on this play. It's notable that FanDuel has this at 16.5 while most books have it at 15.5 and one book as low as 14.5. Keenan Allen has been under this in 5 of 6 games, which shouldn't be a huge surprise as his routes pepper the short area. His receptions line is 3.5 (shaded to the under) and we can expect him to continue to share snaps with the plethora of healthy receivers at Herbert's disposal. Keenan Allen is a chain mover and not a deep ball threat or a YAC guy and this is a less than ideal matchup against the Texans secondary. I like this down to 15.5.

Azeez Al-Shaair is the Texans leading tackler, and is over this mark in 6 games this season. Al-Shaair recorded 12 tackles + assists in his last game. After sitting out last week, Al-Shaair carries no injury designation and looks ready to return to his every down role at middle linebacker. The Chargers are struggling with O-line issues, so look for Jim Harbaugh to go with a run-heavy approach against Houston’s defense. This should create plenty of tackle chances for Al-Shaair, who plays with a fiery intensity.

FanDuel. Dalton Schultz is under this line in ten of 15 games this season, including each of the last six. He’ll face off against the Chargers stingy tight-end defense - LA ranks in the top seven of yards, receptions and targets allowed to the position. The Chargers have only allowed four tight-ends to clear this line all season - and they were all brand names (Travis Kelce twice, Tyler Warren and Brock Bowers). The Chargers take away deep shots with their two-high safety scheme, and Schultz is not a yards after catch threat (4.1 YAC/rec).

FanDuel. Since the Week 12 bye, Keenan Allen is under this line in each of the four games he’s played, with only one of his 20 targets traveling at least 13 air yards (per PFF). His average depth of target before the bye was 9.1 yards, but only 6.9 since. With Quentin Johnston healthy and rookie Tre Harris emerging, Allen has seen his route and snap share decline. He’ll now have a brutal matchup against the elite secondary of the Texans. I’d bet this down to under 15.5 yards for a partial unit.

Here's a chance for the Chargers to avenge that bitter wild card-round defeat at Houston last January, which apparently is still sticking in the craw of Justin Herbert, who is assuming much of the blame for that loss. Recent Bolts form, however, has been very good, with the defense keying wins over the Eagles, the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, and the Cowboys the past three weeks, and Herbert another week beyond his left wrist surgery. A win sets up an AFC West showdown at Denver next week. As for Houston, fortunate last week vs. the Raiders, and likely having to settle for a wild card as the Jags have to lose once to give Houston a chance at the AFC South. Play Chargers ML

Since Joe Alt suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 9, Justin Herbert has cleared this prop total just once. It makes sense, too, because without Alt and Rashawn Slater the Chargers are vulnerable to elite pass rushers. Saturday night, LA hosts a Houston team featuring Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. Look for Jim Harbaugh to rely on his ground game and defense and limit exposure to the Texans' fierce pass rush. Over the past three games, the Chargers have passed just 48.7 percent of the time with Herbert throwing no more than 29 times.

I'm betting on the best defense in the league to overwhelm an injury-ridden Chargers offensive line. Justin Herbert is the 3rd most sacked QB in the NFL, (49) and will now have to evade elite DEs Will Anderson & Danielle Hunter. With LT Jamaree Slayer ruled out, L.A are down to their 3rd string tackles. The Chargers routed the Cowboys as underdogs in their last game, but I can't give them too much credit against a junior varsity Dallas defense. Houston didn't look great against the Raiders last week, but that's giving us a discount on them here. Houston has won 8 of their last 9, and continue to find ways to win close games. I like Texans ML, +2.5, and in a 6PT teaser.

It feels like everyone on Houston is in a "buy low" spot after last week's performance. That includes Woody Marks, who didn't play last week but soared over this total in the previous three games. The Chargers' defense is strong but most of that comes from their pass defense. The game plan for Houston should be to attack from the ground where the Chargers are more vulnerable. And if Houston gets a lead, they tend to control the clock the best they can on the ground as well. Regardless of the game script, Woody Marks should play a heavy role. 

There aren't many cracks to find in Houston's defense but this is the best shot. Their red-zone defense does not hold a candle to the rest of their defensive metrics, allowing room for a potential Omarion Hampton touchdown. Hampton scored last week against the Cowboys, which doesn't mean much, but it shows that he is the red-zone guy for the Chargers. So to get an RB1 at plus money like this feels like a no brainer. Kimani Vidal also left that game last week with an injury, and even if he does play, it is hard to imagine he will be at 100%. Take the opportunity on Hampton getting the goal line carries again.

The Texans are coming off one of the worst wins of the season, needing a pick-six to beat the Raiders by two points. That's shifted this line through zero from the lookahead of Houston -1.5, along with the Chargers dominating an awful Cowboys defense. I expect the Raiders game to be a wake-up call for Houston, and their edge rushers should have much more success against the Chargers' battered O-line than Dallas did. This feels to me like it could be decided by 1-2 points, so I'll take the value off the lookahead for what I think is the better team overall.