Kimani Vidal has run 41 routes since Omarion Hampton returned from injury, and he's cleared this prop total in six of his last eight games. The Cowboys have given up 46.9 receiving yards to opposing running backs, second-most in the NFL. Shop around because you can find this prop at -120.

Figured the Cowboys would be getting points here considering the Chargers just beat both of last year’s Super Bowl teams consecutively. Dallas being favored here should tell you all you need to know as its offense is the best unit in this game. Los Angeles has been winning without generating many yards or points, and while it will have an easier time doing both Sunday, going score for score with Dak Prescott & Co. indoors is a tough task. Those hard-fought victories should pile up for the Chargers, whereas the Cowboys have the weapons to take advantage of a defense that is more beatable than it looks -- whether in the first or second half.

End of the season patterns do exist. For the Dallas Cowboys, Jake Ferguson has been a consistent option for the offense. Overall he ranks tenth in catches in the NFL, but is coming off just two catches for sixteen yards in last week’s loss to the Vikings. He had a similar end of season decline last year for the Cowboys when he finished three out of the last four games with 23 yards or less. Fade Ferguson for a second straight week.

Both teams come into this game with lengthy injury reports, but I continue to be concerned about the Chargers offensive line, and Dallas has been a sneaky good team at generating pressure on the QB. The only time the Chargers offense has managed more than 300 yards in its last four game is against the woeful Raiders, while the Cowboys have four straight games over 400 yards and only one home game not at that level all year. If the Cowboys offense can generate production has usual, the Chargers offense may not be able to keep up based on what we've seen over the last month. I see the Cowboys money line as a value at -120 or lower.

The Chargers have admittedly been my blind spot for stretches; the defense is overrated and the offense as currently constructed doesn't grade out nearly as well as perception. So I'm doing it again and fading them on the ML against one of the league's top 5 offenses at home. Dallas was moribound offensively last week vs Minnesota and I expect them to be much better here. Yes, they've been eliminated from the playoffs and narrative wise that never helps but I show a major edge with their O vs the Chargers D and a wash on the other side. Give me the Boys in a bounceback against the road weary Bolts

The LA Chargers do have ten wins on the season, but they are coming off tough games the last two weeks against the Eagles and Chiefs. They had the overtime win against the Eagles, and traveled to Kansas City on a short week where they had to comeback for that win. It’s the first time all season they are playing consecutive games on the road. Look for another slow start from the Chargers offense, and for Dallas to take advantage. Grab the Cowboys.

DraftKings. This is an interestingly low line for George Pickens, who has cleared this line in seven of the ten full games played with CeeDee Lamb this season. The Cowboys have talked about looking to get Pickens the ball, and even though they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs, there could be a bump in Pickens first reads to keep him happy in hopes of resigning him this offseason. It isn’t the best matchup, but Pickens has regularly cleared this line in suboptimal spots. I’d bet this to -150.

Broken hand? Nah, just a scratch, Justin Herbert might say scoffingly. The Chargers QB, underappreciated by about everyone except his worshiping head coach, is 2-0 straight-up against the latest Super Bowl participants. He has adjusted to the restraint, though the Ws were more the product of a nasty defense. It doled out 19 points to Philadelphia (in 68 minutes of play) and 13 to Kansas City. In theory, pocket pressure would checkmate a QB playing virtually one-handed. But the Cowboys are average in that regard. As a bonus, Dallas likely will be eliminated by kickoff, thus reducing its motivation. The rival Eagles can do the deed by beating Washington on Saturday.

This looks like an optimal environment for Justin Herbert and the LA passing game to get on track. We love targeting overs against the Cowboys because they combine a below average defense with an elite offense, thus inviting additional passing volume. This line is somewhat depressed as a result of Herbert playing hurt the last few weeks, in addition to facing some tough defenses. This game features a large projected total and the Cowboys will be missing their top corner in Da’Ron Bland. The Cowboys are a pass funnel and I expect Herbert and company to attack Dallas downfield.

The marketplace still seems to be overvaluing the Cowboys, whose playoff hopes could be completely extinguished by the time this one kicks off in Arlington. Dallas should have had more left in the tank for last Sunday 34-26 loss to the Vikings, and the defense starting to resemble its poor form from the first half of the season while allowing 39 ppg in consecutive losses to the Lions and Vikes. As for the Bolts, they're still playing inspired defense while continuing to chase Denver in the AFC West, and Justin Herbert's left wrist has had another week to heal and get him closer to 100%. This is arguably a tougher test for Dallas than others they didn't pass the past two weeks. Play Chargers.