This line tells us that Micah Parsons and home-field advantage, combined, are worth 8.5 points. Nothing else has changed since these teams met two weeks ago in a 7-point win by Green Bay. That game included Chicago running 16 more plays and possessing the ball 7 additional minutes. This pick could not be made until Josh Jacobs and (more importantly) Christian Watson, who combined for 3 TD in the first meeting, were listed as active. Advanced metrics have the Packers above the Bears in nearly every category, and while this will certainly be closer on the scoreboard than the first meeting, it should still be the visitors on top in the end.

Packers linebacker Edgerrin Cooper has recorded eight or more tackles in three straight, including getting 11 stops vs. Chicago in Week 14. The Bears continue to be a strong matchup for opposing LBs. With wind now expected to be a factor Saturday night, look for the Bears to go very run-heavy and for Cooper to clear this prop total.

Colston Loveland caught a touchdown pass against the Packers two weeks ago. Now, with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden out, he'll be relied upon even more in this matchup. When Odunze and Burden are off the field, Loveland is targeted on 26.5% of his routes. Look for Loveland to be Caleb Williams' redzone target again tonight. I love this price for Loveland to find the endzone again against the Packers.

Concerns regarding Swift’s groin injury have shifted the focus to Bears RB2 Kyle Monongai for most bettors. I’m still rolling with Swift, considering he logged multiple limited practices this week. Swift has carried a ‘questionable’ tag in several games this season, and has still gotten his typical 13-17 rush attempts. Swift is over this mark in 9/13 games this year. The Bears will be without WRs Rome Odunze & Luther Burden, so Ben Johnson is likely going to go run-heavy. Green Bay ranks middle of the pack in rush defense, and now will need to readjust without Micah Parsons. This rushing yards line is up to 56.5 on some books, which gives me some confidence that he will be healthy and play.

What's been fun to watch about the Chicago Bears offense this year is their versatility. This team can win in many different ways. In this rivalry game that has significant divisional implications, without their best pass rusher up front and on the interior, the Packers will have trouble vs the 12 personnel of the Bears, giving them enough to cover the spread at Soldier Field.

Considering Matt LaFleur has only lost once to the Bears in seven seasons, getting any points with the Pack on Saturday night at Soldier Field looks too good to bypass. Though there are injury concerns, with Micah Parsons now out, while Josh Jacobs and Christian Watson are both likely gametime decisions, series history is rather one-sided here, and Green Bay did take out the Bears two weeks ago at Lambeau Field, 28-21, when Jordan Love (3 TD passes) outplayed Caleb Williams. Though Chicago does own a win at Philly, the schedule has been mostly favorable, and within the NFC North, the Bears are only 1-3. Play Packers

It's going to be 34° with 16 mph winds and 0% chance of precipitation in Chicago. This is part two of a series that the Packers won 28-21 in the first meeting 2 wedeeks ago. That's a game I feel the Bears should have won. The thing I like the most about the Bears is their No. 2-ranked running game that averages 152 yards a game. I think the running back duo is going to do their thing, with Caleb Williams only having to pitch in on a couple of key moments. Too many Packer injuries, and the Bears lead the NFL with a +20 turnover ratio. Bears to win.

FanDuel. I’ll take a stab on Kyle Monangai again, despite him staying under his rush attempts line last week. He had cleared this line in the four games prior, and there are some positive variables working in our favor this week. Firstly, D’Andre Swift is questionable with a groin injury - even with him suiting up, I’d respect Chicago to lean on Monangai a bit more. And the Bears receiving core is decimated, with both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden out. Throw in some windy conditions, and I envision a run-heavy gameplan for Chicago.

Olamide Zaccheaus hasn't been a big factor for Chicago, but Rome Odunze and Luther Burden are out. And the Packers run zone at the sixth-highest rate. Zaccheaus excels at finding soft spots in zones and should make at least three catches despite the frigid weather.

The significant injury to Green Bay pass rush extraordinaire Micah Parsons is largely responsible for a total in the upper half of the 40s. Numerous injuries on the offenses suggest it's too high. For the Packers, top RB Josh Jacobs and dangerous WR Christian Watson are questionable. For the Bears, the two main WRs, Luther Burden and Rome Odunze, have been shelved. The squads combined for 49 points in their recent clash, but the yardage totals were not excessive. Chilly weather and winter winds could contrbute to an Under.

The Packers defense suffered a major injury last week when Micah Parsons went down, and that has turned his game more into a toss-up. If the Bears hang around all game, they should have high rushing volume after Monangai and D'Andre Swift combined for 120 rushing yards in the first meeting. Monangai's output could be in line to increase from the 57 he had last time if he becomes the focal point of the attack with Swift (groin) questionable, and two receiver injuries could lead to the Bears increasing their rushing volume anyway. Monangai had 48+ yards in three straight before struggling against the Browns last week, but this matchup sets up for him to get to that level again.