Opponents have been running the ball way more than expected against Minnesota, which sets up well for Javonte Williams. He had extra rest and just racked up 67 rushing yards against a tougher run defense in Detroit. Even in Minnesota's blanking of Washington last week, Chris Rodriguez averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Look for a big workload to help Javonte Williams hit 70-plus rushing yards.

The Cowboys have won three of their last four games with the only loss coming to an offensively superior Lions squad. That is not how one would describe the Vikings, which scored six points across their prior two games before eviscerating a porous Commanders team last week. Minnesota does have a ferocious defense, and Dallas will need to work through that. The Cowboys play much better at home, particularly on offense, and it’s tough to imagine J.J. McCarthy dueling with Dak Prescott, even with the Vikings having their own tremendous wideouts. This line has come down 1.5 points from its peak.

DraftKings. Since returning from injury, Blake Cashman has cleared this line in six of his last seven, with the lone miss at 9 combined tackles. The Cowboys are a plus opponent, allowing the sixth most tackles per game overall (63), and the third most linebacker opportunities (per PFF data). The Vikings have struggled with time of possession with JJ McCarthy under center, and I like that to continue today against a motivated and improving Cowboys defense. I’d bet this up to -150.

The Cowboys generate the eighth-most tackles for opposing linebackers, which puts Minnesota's Eric Wilson in a good spot. He's cleared this prop total in 10 of his past 11 games. And with Javonte Williams projected for around 17 carries, I bet Wilson to get to six combined stops.

The early line opened with the Cowboys as -7.5-point favorites over the Vikings 12 days ago, and now, with 2 hours until kickoff, some places in Las Vegas have the Cowboys -4.5 with a total of 47.5. The Vikings have lost four of their last five but won their last game, 31-0, against Washington. The Cowboys just had a three-game win streak snapped by Detroit. The Cowboys are 4-1-1 at home this year. The Cowboys have also beaten the Vikings in the last three meetings. The Cowboys at home get the cover.

It’s gonna take some courage to back J.J McCarthy against an improving Dallas defense, but I still think this spread is too wide. The Cowboys have only covered this margin against 3 teams this season- Jets, Commanders, Raiders. Minnesota finally have a healthy offensive line, and showed some life last week in an impressive shutout win. Dallas allows the most passing yards per game (255) to opposing QBs, so Justin Jefferson might be trading big plays back and forth with Dallas’ star WR duo. Vikings DC Brian Flores has the defense playing well over the last month. I think the Vikings can hang around in this game.

The Cowboys are moderate favorites tonight and typically play well at home, and I expect Williams is going to get into the end zone on one of their scoring drives. He's scored in eight of his 13 games, and he's averaging more than 20 touches over the last four weeks. Five of the six offensive TDs the Vikings have given up over the last four games have been RB rushing touchdowns, four from the 1-yard line, and Williams is the trusted back at the goal line for Dallas. I think this should be in the -150 range.

The Vikings’ slumbering offense emerged from hibernation last Sunday, socking the Commanders with 31 points. Can they do it again, given no TDs in the past 25 possessions on the road? Let’s say Minnesota reaches the low 20s. Well, Dallas scores at a 32.6-point clip at home, with a staggering offensive output of 431 yards per. Better yet, hard-to-guard WR CeeDee Lamb has been cleared from concussion protocol. The Vikes are fond of — not to mention effective at — blitzing. Bring it on, says Dak Prescott, whose team has taken three in a row SU in the seres. The QB is especially adept at handling pressure.

Minnesota may not be able to run effectively against Dallas, forcing them to throw. Last week the Vikings schemed up their pass plays for McCarthy to get the ball out quickly and it worked -- he was effective and even a little explosive. Each of the past five quarterbacks against the Cowboys have thrown at least 21 passes, notable especially since the Dallas run defense got a whole lot better at the trade deadline. Tack on the Vikings offensive line looking healthy and McCarthy is in a fine position to throw a lot of passes.

No way a game involving the Vikings should earn this high a total. QB J.J. McCarthy showed flashes of improvement last Sunday in an otherwise dreadful season. Am skeptical that he can deliver a sequel. Minnesota's defense has been just short of heroic during the offensive malaise. It held four foes to between 19 and 27 points when the offense was pretty much three-and-out, then tossed a shutout at Washington in the latest outing. Dallas games can evolve into shootouts, but few Cowboys opponents have been as imbalanced toward the defense as Minnesota.

J.J. McCarthy is coming off his best game of the season, but he also got to throw against air. The Cowboys defense has been better in recent weeks, including helping the team beat the Eagles and Chiefs in their last two at home. The Dallas offense also shines at home, where the Cowboys have just one game under 400 yards gained. The lookahead was 7.5 and that's probably a better number for this matchup with the Cowboys on extra rest.