Look … at this point … we’re going down with the ship. The Chiefs have a significant cold-weather advantage in this spot, and while the Chargers picked up a huge win over the Eagles last week, that was far more about Philadelphia’s failures than anything else. Kansas City looked ready to beat Houston until a late back-breaking turnover, and the most dominant team in the AFC over the last few seasons now has no margin for error remaining. It has felt for weeks like the Chiefs were on the verge of overcoming their issues. This game actually sets up perfectly for them to do exactly that … as long as they can catch the damn ball.

Is it surprising the Bolts are getting this sort of price? Or more surprising the Chiefs are laying so many points? Not since October has KC won a game by more than three points, in fact it's been downright awful in one-score games this season, only 1-6, and playoff hopes hanging by a thread (one more loss effectively eliminates KC for the first time since 2014). Things aren't quite right, from Travis Kelce dropping passes he normally doesn't, to Patrick Mahomes lacking the old late-game magic. Meanwhile, the Chargers won 27-21 over the Chiefs on opening Friday in Brazil, Justin Herbert's left wrist has had another week to heal, and the Bolts are 4-1 vs, the line their last five at Arrowhead. Play Chargers

Offensive line injuries aplenty for both of these teams; two positional groups that appeared to be a strength when they met way back in Week 1 this season. Kansas City finds themselves backed into a corner with no margin for error but that's not a reason for a bet...what is will be their defense. Last week KC dominated the Texans in the 2nd half until an ill timed 4th down that was their undoing. Chargers played well in a win vs the Eagles but it was the turnovers that gave them a path, not the offense. Short week, bitter cold I might be stubborn but feel there's a defined path for KC to move the ball and get the rare win by margin against LAC.

The Chargers offensive has been in shambles without their star LT Joe Alt. In recent weeks this O-line allowed Herbert to be sacked 6 times by the Titans, 5 by the Steelers and 7 by the Eagles last week in a game where Herbert was running for his life. Now they will face a Chiefs defensive line that gets good pressure, in the Kansas City cold on the road. Karlaftis has recorded a sack in 7/13 games this season. Karlaftis will be the beneficiary of fellow DE Chris Jones’ pressure, and gang up with a teammate to record half a sack and cash this.

Bettors might be down on Rice after his uncharacteristic drops in KC’s ugly loss to the Texans last week. He’ll get a great matchup to bounce back in here against a Chargers defense that plays a heavy rate of zone coverage. Rice absolutely destroys zone, and the Chiefs remain in desperation mode so Mahomes will be slinging. Rice has seen 8+ targets in 6/7 games he’s played in, and has 32 targets over the last 3. He should see plenty of volume against this defensive scheme and soar over this receiving yards number.

Kansas City certainly is not a playoff worthy team with their performance this season. With their playoff hopes pretty much dashed, I think we see a pride element on Sunday against a divisional opponent in the LA Chargers. LA is coming off an overtime win against Philadelphia, and the offense is hindered with Justin Herbert playing hurt. Take the Chiefs here.

The Chiefs have been one of the best “under” teams over the past few seasons. This year KC are 9-4 to the under, and 6-1 to the under at home in Arrowhead. Both of these teams have injured and unreliable offensive lines. The Chiefs are in desperation mode, and must rely on their defense down the stretch. The Chargers zone-heavy scheme should help limit explosive plays, and keep this game under the key number of 41. Final score prediction 23-16.

QB Justin Herbert heroically soldiered through a Monday night win with a cast impeding his broken left hand. It’s a hurried turn-around to a Sunday matinee, but L.A. is programmed to slog through another grinder against historically the league’s least grinding team. At 1-4 SU in their last five, the high-and-mighty Chiefs will finally kick-start a postseason run, right? That seems to be the public’s perception, based on this too-large line. Pass drops have plagued K.C., and predicted temperatures in the teens are hardly conducive to cure that problem. Neither is going against a defense with three fewer TD passes allowed than interceptions. Six of the Chargers’ last eight games have gone their way SU. They have covered three in a row against the Chiefs.

At first glance this is a difficult matchup for Patrick Mahomes and Rashee Rice against a strong Chargers defense that has been excellent in coverage. However the Chargers rely heavily on zone coverage playing at the second highest rate in the league this season. This bodes extremely well for Rashee Rice who has been downright dominant against zone with a 32% Target Per Route Run rate paired with a 3.24 Yards Per Route Run, both elite marks. We’re getting a sizable discount here as well and I expect Rice to continue to be the clear engine of a Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid offense. Sign me up!

The Chargers somehow beat the Eagles despite giving up a 68.3 percent pressure rate. (Not a misprint). Right tackle Trey Pipkins also left with an ankle injury, replaced by Bobby Hart. Traveling on a short week to play in 17-degree weather doesn't seem like a good spot for Justin Herbert and the warm-weather Chargers. Chiefs right guard Trey Smith is practicing fully and is on track to return, and All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie also has a good chance to play despite hyperextending his knee. If the Chiefs can cut down on the dropped passes -- they had six! in losing to Houston -- they should save their season and cover.

It's do-or-die for the Chiefs the rest of the way, and if they're going to win this one, it's going to take a big effort from the defense. The Chargers had just 3.9 yards per play in the win over the Eagles, a number that looks even worse once you take out the 60-yard catch and run by Kimani Vidal early. The Chiefs offense wasn't much better at 4.3 yards per play, and both defenses are playing well right now. While the Brazil game featured plenty of points in Week 1, the two Chiefs-Chargers matchups last year had 27 and 36 points. I see a similar game on tap this week.