Interesting line considering the Broncos have won 10 straight games and are playing at home, but it makes sense as Denver remains wholly unimpressive week to week. Still, winning is winning, and the Packers have done that, too, with four straight victories aided by a much healthier offense than it had most of the season. The Broncos have blown consecutive covers in excruciating fashion (I would know), while the Packers are 2-0-1 ATS over their last three. Green Bay’s ceiling is much higher, and it should finally scrape it on Sunday afternoon, especially if Denver continues committing penalties.

Green Bay is on a four-game SU roll and getting healther, wth a full complement of WRs and RB Josh Jacobs likely to play. On the surface, it's weird for a team on a 10-game SU heater heading into a home game as an underdog. Yet Denver is not exactly overpowering foes. Its stellar defense relies heavily on man-to-man coverage, which plays right into QB Jordan's Love hands. He excels against it. The Broncos' sackmeisters might be left wanting, given that Green Bay has allowed just 18 sacks. It's Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons that Denver and QB Bo Nix should be worried about.

This line has trended to Denver over the week, and I think the Packers are a good enough value to jump on at -1 or -115 ML. Both defenses should dictate this game, and while Denver may have the better unit on that front, I trust Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur way more than I do Bo Nix and Sean Payton. The Packers' consistently strong rushing attack is expected to have Josh Jacobs, and I think that gives them the edge in what should be a close, lower-scoring game.

I just posted the model sims in my sub-room on Discord and once again it has RJ Harvey quite high up on the anytime TD list -- and this seems like a crazy generous number. Yeah the Packers are pretty good defensively, but Harvey can score as a runner or receiver. He has found paydirt in two straight. Just don't get hurt. Need you next week in the Fantasy playoffs (I got a bye, much to my own surprise).

The Broncos have walked the tightrope in many of their wins this season, often times against far lesser teams. Now Bo Nix will have to face a stout Green Bay defense that play heavy zone coverage, which his numbers drop off against. Meanwhile, Jordan Love thrives against man coverage which the Broncos play more than any team in the NFL. Green Bay will get back WR Jayden Reed, and it looks like RB Josh Jacobs will be good to go. The Packers have momentum after an emotional win over Chicago last week, and I think they keep it rolling in Denver.

The Denver Broncos have a ten game winning streak, and even better a twelve game home winning streak dating back to last season. Still, weekly it appears they are surviving to get victories and will face a Packers team that’s offense is starting to hit its stride. Under Matt LaFleur since 2019, the Packers are 21-4 in the month of December. Take the Packers.

I am not alone when saying I was surprised to see Green Bay listed as a favorite. This Denver defense is nearly a polar opposite from last week's Chicago defense that Jordan Love was able to exploit. Not only did the Packers have that very emotional, arch rival matchup last week but they have it again next week in Chicago. This out of conference affair thrown in the middle will be very difficult, especially at altitude for a team that rarely ever travels to the Mile High city. Green Bay has covered the number only two times this season when on the road and out of division. That was against the Steelers defense and the Giants. This is a very different animal. Broncos win outright.

I was extremely bullish on RJ Harvey after the Broncos selected him in the 2nd round. While Harvey hasn’t hit the ground running, he has begun to flash and is coming off his strongest rushing performance last week against the Raiders posting an exceptional 71% success rate. Harvey also posted a 50%+ carry share for the third straight week with season-high marks in snap share and route participation, he looks to be finally building trust with Sean Payton. Now he faces a Packers defense that is the leagues second biggest run funnel in a game that projects to be competitive.

Is the marketplace overthinking too much for this clash? The Broncos should not be underdogs at home against anybody, not with a ten-game SU win streak. The fact Denver is winning these games close shouldn't be held against Sean Payton's crew; their style of game simply is methodical, with few big plays these days on offense and the defense good enough to win most games. Margins can start to expand for Denver when the stop unit begins to convert pick-sixes and scoop-and-scores like a year ago. That hasn't happened as much this season, but the Broncos keep winning as Bo Nix and the offense do just enough each week. Note the Pack has covered just 3 of its last 12 away. Play Broncos.