Surprisingly large line for a team in the Lions with their backs against the wall against a Rams side that has gotten fat by destroying lesser opponents and played tight games against better teams. Detroit being down three safeties is a major concern, especially because Los Angeles may be the best team in the NFL, standing as a deserving Super Bowl favorite. However, the only quality team the Rams have beaten by margin recently was the short-handed 49ers. The Lions have their full complement of offensive weapons and should be good for a backdoor cover at worst. Moneyline sprinkle on Detroit, too.

Nacua has a fantastic matchup against a man coverage-heavy Lions defense. Detroit’s secondary has been decimated by injury. CB Terrion Arnold and SS Brian Branch are both on IR, and FS Kerby Joseph and his backup have been ruled out. Nacua had 8+ receptions in 5 straight weeks to start the season, but hasn’t cleared this line since then. He’s seen 9+ targets in 8 games this season, and with Davante Adams playing a bit banged up, I see Nacua getting heavy target share here. Puka goes off today.

How unusual to see Detroit getting spotted this many points. Might not be enough. L.A.'s fourth-rated offense should puncture a defense devastated by injury. It's almost a given that QB Matthew Stafford will bolster his MVP campaign against his former team. The Rams' No. 3-rated defense can spoil the widely accepted plot line of a shootout. Opponents average just 17.5 ppg. Detroit has played decently of late, but this marks its first away game in a month.

Hopefully the Rams beat the daylights out of the Lions as that only helps the Bears, and Matthew Stafford surely will be fired up to face his former club again. But it's just not that easy to score 32 points in an NFL game. Only 25 clubs in history averaged at least that many in a season according to Grok. Or Gronk, whatever. Probably same trustworthiness. The model has Los Angeles at 27. About what I'm thinking. 30 is fine. so is 31. I wouldn't go lower.

This is a pretty high line for a WR2, but Jameson Williams has been performing like a WR1 and has an elite game environment (indoor + a high game total + a likely negative game script). Williams is no longer your deep threat only guy as he's running plenty of intermediate routes and that's reflected in his volume and efficiency over the last 6 games (noteable that he's hit this receiving yards number pretty easily in 5 of his last 6). Goff is slated to throw for 250+ and I expect him to need to throw a ton as I don't think this Lions defense can stop Stafford and company. Look for that to result in Williams being busy on Sunday.

The Lions gave up 417 yards of offense to a Cowboys team that didn't have CeeDee Lamb for much of the game or an engaged George Pickens. Detroit's secondary likely will be missing Kerby Joseph as well as Brian Branch and Terrion Arnold. That doesn't bode well against the league's highest-rated passer, former Lion Matthew Stafford. Even with Davante Adams' status in question, I like the Rams to win a high-scoring game by at least a touchdown.

DraftKings. Despite Colby Parkinson coming on strong with Tyler Higbee on injured reserve, this is a high line for the tight end. Parkinson only has two catches this season that have exceeded 16 yards, and his average depth of target is only 3.0 yards. Running 75% of his routes in-line, the Lions have allowed the second fewest catches (1.6 per game) and the lowest yards after catch per reception (2.62) to that alignment this season. With Detroit running man coverage at the second highest rate, I’m expecting a ton of targets going towards Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who both thrive against man.

I have the Rams as the best team in the league in my power ratings, but I'm jumping on the Lions with this line at 6 at DraftKings. Detroit has the No. 1 scoring offense in the league after a big game against the Cowboys, with a top-five mark in net yards per pass attempt and yards per rush. Recent losses have come down to uncharacteristic struggles on fourth down, and a typical day on that front will allow them to stay close. There are few teams I trust more to get a backdoor cover if needed as well. The lookahead was 4.5 and the Lions had a much needed big win. Why the inflation? I think this line should be 4.