Late play here with the Ravens in a game featuring two struggling offensive teams that have talented quarterbacks and coaches but remain up against it late in the season. Lamar Jackson's struggles led to my best play of the season last week, but Baltimore is not going to turn the ball over five times again. Derrick Henry should have a big day, and the Ravens will be able to stop the run and flex their might at home. Have a feeling this spread is so large for a reason.

Now that the total has ticked back up above the key number of 43, I’ll jump on the under. Lamar Jackson is clearly hindered by his lingering injuries, and Baltimore’s offense just hasn’t been right. Their defense has shaped up in a major way, and should be able to limit a pretty one-dimensional Steelers offense. Aaron Rodgers is playing through a fractured wrist, which is forcing the Steelers out of their offensive identity by needing to run more shotgun formations than they’d like. After turning the ball over 5 times last week, I expect the Ravens to go run heavy and control possession. In a late season AFC north clash, under is the play.

Wth the focus on ths matchup around the future of Steelers coach Mke Tomlin, the most impactful angle is the struggles of Baltimore's offense with banged-up QB Lamar Jackson. He has been un-Lamar-like the past three games, with no TD passes and five turnovers. Turnovers tend to be cyclical, but it cannot dismissed that the Steelers have induced 22, second most in the league, whle the Ravens are coming off a five-turnover debacle. Shockingly, Baltimore did not complete a single pass of 20-plus yards in November. Tomlin's defense will be focused on containing RB Derrick Henry, who might get extra work. At home, the Ravens are 2-5 ATS. This mega-rivalry game could make it a half-dozen on the losing side.

Either something is wrong with the Ravens, or they're not that good. For several weeks, despite a recent 5-game win streak, we have suspected the same, much of it to do with QB Lamar Jackson and his return from a hamstring injury that kept him out of action for a month. Jackson has lacked the same electric burst from the pocket that he made famous in recent years. Baltimore still has Derrick Henry, however, and that might be enough to push past the Steelers, who have looked miserable in recent weeks. The old Steel Curtain defense is also showing real signs of wear and tear, such as allowing 249 rush yards last week to the Bills in the latest loss. Play Ravens

DraftKings. Darnell Washington has emerged as a key piece of the Steelers passing attack. He’s cleared this line in four of his last five games, and is coming off a contest where he saw his highest pass snap rate (88%) of the season. Even if he sees less snaps on Sunday, he really does not need much volume (8.6 yards per target this season). Baltimore is allowing the 10th highest yards per target to tight-ends, with league-average volume. I see those targets coming, as I have Washington projected with 4 throws his way. I’d bet this up to over 23.5 yards.

Pittsburgh is getting smashed on the ground of late, and Derrick Henry rushed for 186 yards and two scores last time he saw the Steelers in January's WC game. Lamar Jackson isn't really running these days as he battles numerous injuries. Honestly thought this would be near -200.

Aaron Rodgers should be the starter heading into a pivotal matchup against the Ravens, but he's now gone four straight games with one or zero touchdowns and three consecutive games with under 165 passing yards. I typically play the underdog when these two teams meet. This matchup feels different. Pittsburgh's defense was on the field for 74 plays, totaling 41 minutes and 59 seconds. Baltimore owns a +0.2 net yards per play while the Steelers are -0.2. Lamar Jackson and several key defensive players missed multiple games due to injuries. After his three-turnover performance, Jackson and company will deliver a strong showing. John Harbaugh has 10 days to prepare after the team committed five turnovers last Thursday.

The Steelers' defense was on the field for 74 plays Sunday against Buffalo, giving up 249 rushing yards, and they could be without three key players at Baltimore: LB Patrick Queen (hip), DT Derrick Harmon (knee) and CB James Pierre (concussion). The Ravens should have a ton of success on the ground. In his last two home games against Pittsburgh, Derrick Henry rushed for 186 and 162 yards. Baltimore had extra time to prepare following itsThanksgiving loss to Cincinnati -- a game that would have looked a lot different had Isaiah Likely not fumbled going into the end zone. Pittsburgh has not completed a pass traveling 20-plus air yards in five weeks (0 for 13, 3 INTs).

The Ravens offense's issues finally came to a head against the Bengals, but I chalk up all the points conceded due to the offense losing four fumbles. The defense only surrendered two touchdown drives despite Cincy living on Baltimore's side of the field, and I trust that unit after giving up less than 20 points in its previous six games. The Bills gave the Ravens offense a gameplan to control the ball with the run game, where Baltimore ranks third in yards per rush this year. The Steelers offense couldn't do much against a beat-up Buffalo defense, so this feels like a game that tops out at 40-41 points.