We missed some value here (nice call by Propstarz getting 47.5) but I still like this game to go under the total. Steady rainfall is expected all afternoon in Jacksonville. The Colts offense is dangerous but has hit a snag, scoring 20 or fewer points in 3 of their last 4. The Jaguars run a heavy dose of zone coverage, which should limit Indy’s explosive plays and make this game a battle at the line of scrimmage. The Jags are 4-1 the Under at home this season. This environment is shaping up to create another low scoring affair in an important divisional clash to determine who sits atop the AFC South.

More than 70% of the betting handle is on the road favorite Colts, in what looks to be a sketchy spot for them. Daniel Jones has been less effective outside his dome environment in Indy, with 3 of the Colts 4 losses coming away from home. He will continue to play through a fractured fibula which is commendable, but concerning against a Jags defense that has the 3rd most takeaways (20) in the NFL. Jacksonville will get back WR Brian Thomas Jr, and have looked much better in the pass game since acquiring WR Jakobi Meyers. Indy will be without CB Sauce Gardner, and have missed their stud DT DeForest Buckner. This is a huge game for the AFC South, give me the home dogs.

I'll simplify the handicap; steady rains throughout the game and they're supposed to intensify throughout the 1st half. These are two teams that have questions in their secondaries that might be minimized given the conditions. Both of these teams are more than capable against the run and given the wettest conditions of the day we'll try to get in and out quickly. If you did have access to a 23 I'd make this a full position

Daniel Jones is still dealing with a fractured fibula and is 4-11–1 ATS against above average defenses playing outdoors. Indianapolis’ offense has been less productive due to Jones’ injury. The Colts are also 2-9 on ATS last 11 in series. They’ve also not won in Jacksonville since 2014. The Jaguars are playing with momentum, winning three straight, and have a defense holding their opponents to less than 15 points per game at home.

The Colts look to be leaking oil, dropping three of their last four and in the process the lead in the AFC South, the offense suddenly looking less potent as QB Daniel Jones has been starting to resemble his old Giants form. Jones wasn't all that bad last week vs. Houston but unlike the first half of the season when making all of the big plays, Jones and the rest of the offense have bene unable to consistently generate winning plays the past month as the downturn has endured. Meanwhile, the Jags are stirring, with wins in three straight, and a defense full of ballhawks ready to pounce on the next Jones mistake. The last three wins have been by a combined 87-33. Play Jaguars

DraftKings. Nick Cross has cleared this tackle line in seven of 12 games this season. Spending most of his snaps in the box, Cross is the Colts third leading tackler against the run, and second in the passing game. He’ll get a plus matchup against the Jaguars who allow the second most tackles to opposing safeties (per PFF data). Twelve safeties have cleared this line in 12 games against Jacksonville (with at least one in nine separate contests).

Brenton Strange has multiple things working in his favor this week. His routes went up last week and he ran 81% of the routs last Sunday. Just like Tyler Warren has a good matchup, so does his counterpart, Strange, on the other side. The Colts' defense gives up the 2nd most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Strange has gone over this line in five of the seven games he's played this season. I like him to soar over this line again on Sunday.

Tyler Warren has had a couple of down games the last couple of weeks, but that has a lot to do with the matchup, and he was playing through an illness last Sunday. This Sunday, Warren has a great matchup against the Jaguars' defense that gives up the 4th most receiving yards to tight ends this season. This line is very attainable for Warren to go over this week, and I'm considering laddering Warren to 70+ receiving yards for plus money.

With Daniel Jones’ limited mobility, he needs to get rid of the ball more quickly. That meant five targets last week for Jonathan Taylor, who turned those into 36 receiving yards. It was the fourth time in the past six games that Taylor had 21-plus receiving yards. Look for Taylor and Tyler Warren to be among Jones’ favorite targets Sunday in Jacksonville.

Brenton Strange has made a significant impact since returning from IR, catching eight passes for 138 yards in two games. Now he faces a Colts team that gives up the second-most receiving yards per game (72.08) to opposing tight ends. Even with Parker Washington trending toward playing, I like Strange to stay heavily involved and clear this number for the third straight week.

Tyler Warren has faced tough matchups recently, but this isn't one of them. Elite tight ends have gone off against the Jaguars, with Trey McBride racking up 79 yards and Brock Bowers exploding for 127. Even Dalton Schultz totaled 53 yards. Look for Warren to be Daniel Jones' primary target.

I don’t often bet totals but this is a rare one that I like. We have a divisional clash with massive playoff implications between the 1st place Colts and a surging Jacksonville team. Both of these teams have improved defensively as the season as progressed and are playing great defense recently. I view both offenses as overrated and I ultimately think this is likely to be a low scoring defensive struggle.

Going to continue to fade Daniel Jones in what is another very difficult matchup on the road. We successfully faded Jones last week against an elite Texans defense and Jones faces another difficult test this week against Jacksonville. The Jags have quietly been playing great defense, particularly recently, and since Week 10 rank 3rd in Defensive EPA, 5th in EPA allowed per dropback, and 6th in Success Rate. Meanwhile Jones is operating at less than 100% and while he’s still been fairly effective, we’re seeing the wheels fall off a bit.

The Colts have key injuries on both sides of the ball, with Daniel Jones playing hurt and Sauce Gardner now sidelined. Indy has failed to gain 300 yards in back-to-back games after entering the Week 11 bye as the top offense in football. The Jaguars just closed out a brutal stretch of four road games in five weeks by going 4-1, and the defense is playing well enough that I have Jacksonville rated above average for the first time all year. With Indy's injury concerns, that means this game should be pick 'em at worst, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jacksonville closes favored.