The Bears’ turnaround behind Ben Johnson has been impressive, but there’s no getting over the quality of opponent – and defense – Chicago has been defeating during this stretch of success. Philadelphia is another animal altogether, and while it coughed up a 21-point lead to Dallas in pathetic fashion, it completely dominated the early portion of that game – just as it did Detroit and Green Bay the prior weeks. If the Eagles have any gumption and Nick Sirianni can actually motivate his guys as we have seen previously, they should win by double digits. The Bears have thrived on a massive turnover differential that Philly is unlikely to inflate, and the middle of their defense being thin is perfect for Jalen Hurts to attack.

D'Andre Swift lost his second fumble last week and I don't expect him to have much success as a rusher vs. Philly's stout run defense. (The Eagles have allowed 3.8 yards per carry over the past three games). However, in games in which the Bears have trailed, they have used Swift as a receiver. Against the Ravens and Giants, Swift caught seven of 10 targets for 44 yards. I expect Chicago to be playing from behind. As a result, I bet Swift to go Over this modest receiving total.

The Bears haven't beaten the Eagles in the last six meetings, and they meet today with identical records at 8-3, with each covering seven games. The Bears are on a run of winning eight of their last nine, while the Eagles have lost three of their last seven amid the AJ Brown turmoil. The Bears have the No. 6 offense in the NFL, averaging 369 yards per game, with the No. 2 running game averaging 142 per game. The Eagles have the 24th-ranked offense, averaging just 303 a game. What I like most about the Bears is that they don't turn the ball over. They lead the NFL with a plus-16 turnover margin, forcing 24 turnovers. I think the Bears play well and cover.

The Bears continue to pull off wild comeback wins, but I think their luck runs out here. Chicago’s defense leads the league in interceptions & turnover differential (+16!). The Eagles offense is still searching for their explosiveness of last year, but they don’t turn the ball over. The Bears are 25th in defensive DVOA and are missing all 3 of their starting LBs, DE Dominique Robinson, and CB Tyrique Stevenson. On the other side, I feel that Philly’s defense is capable of returning to the elite unit they are in this matchup. They’ll be looking to shake off blowing a 21-0 lead to the Cowboys in Primetime. The market still isn’t respecting the Bears, and for good reason. Eagles fly in a “get right” game.

The Bears are getting back two top corners but will be without several linebackers. The offensive gameplan for the Eagles must account for this shift in personnel to take advantage of Chicago's weakness and avoid its strength, and the best way to do that is to get Barkley matched up with those backup linebackers in the passing attack. Former Barkley backup Kenneth Gainwell caught all six of his targets for 30 yards against this defense last week, and Barkley could have a similar involvement after seeing a season-high eight targets last week, well above his previous high of five. Barkley has had 24+ receiving yards in 6 of 11 games, and I'm surprised this total isn't closer to that number.

The Eagles have curiously struggled to get Saquon Barkley and their run game going this year. They rank 20th in offensive rushing DVOA due to offensive line injuries, and new OC woes. Barkley is only over this mark in 3 games this season, but he has an excellent matchup tonight. The Bears have been awful against the run, ranking 26th in defensive rushing DVOA. Last week, Chicago allowed the Steelers to go off for 186 team rushing yards. The Bears defense has been decimated by injury, and will be missing all three starting LBs in T.J Edwards, Noah Sewell, and Ruben Hyppolite. The Eagles need to find consistency with their rushing attack, so I think they make it a point to pound the rock tonight.

Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert is coming off two relatively quiet games in which he totaled 44 yards on four catches. He did have a 17-yard grab vs. Detroit, the sixth time in 10 games he has cleared his longest reception prop. With the Bears missing their top three linebackers and one reserve linebacker, Chicago is more vulnerable over the middle. I bet Goedert to have at least one big play Friday.

Believe I know more about the Bears than most people alive. Not saying I'm the biggest/most knowledgeable fan ever, but between that and how I betting track them so much. Top 10. I give them almost no chance here barring turnovers/random TDs, etc. And that's fine. They got the big win last Sunday, need to focus on next week vs. the stupid Packers and are obliterated by injury on defense even with a couple of guys back. Five-day turnaround at an angry Eagles team? I really don't think this goes well. I will not only happily eat this $100 if I'm SU wrong, I will find some sort of Bear and/or Eagle non-profit animal habitation place and donate $50 to each if so. May push.

The widely held take on Chicago is that of a decent team that wins tight games by, well, a healthy dose of luck. It cannot be ignored that the Bears have won all but one of their last nine games SU and whose stats back up the streak beyond a bit of good fortune. QB Caleb Williams has begun to live up to his billing as No. 1 overall draft pick. Philly managed a combined 26 points in two recent victories, then frittered away a 21-point lead in a defeat to Dallas last Sunday. Chcago welcomes back cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon off injured reserve. The Eagles should not be laying a full TD in these circumstances.

FanDuel. This one is a little juicy, but Colston Loveland has hit on this receptions line in each of his last six games. And now, he seems to have (finally) been unleashed by Ben Johnson - Loveland was on the field for 81% of pass plays last week against the Steelers. It’s a tough matchup, but the same could be said for all Bears pass catchers. But for what it’s worth, the Eagles have allowed eight opposing tight ends to clear this line in eleven games. Loveland is on the upswing, and I do think the Bears will be in a neutral to negative gamescript for most of this contest. I’d bet this up to -155, or pair it with 25+ receiving yards.

The Bears have now won eight of their last nine, and yet they're not getting respect due to the quality of their opponents. This should be a bigger test against an Eagles team that has the potential to be elite on both sides of the ball, but their offense has not lived up to last year's baseline, while the defense just blew a 21-0 lead against a division rival. Only one of the Eagles' eight wins has been by more than 7, so all we're asking here is for Ben Johnson to do as good a job as most teams have against Philly this year to keep this a one-score game. My power ratings have this line at Eagles -5.