The Bengals defense is terrible. If it’s not the worst in NFL history, it’s close. There’s no getting around that, a returning Joe Burrow will only make so much of an impact for this Cincinnati offense, especially if he’s not able to utilize his mobility. Not having Tee Higgins is certainly problematic, too. So why the Bengals? It’s simple, really: Lamar Jackson does not look healthy. The Ravens, which have failed to cover in consecutive weeks, were outgained significantly in a win over the hapless Jets, and Derrick Henry appears a step slow. Cincinnati should be able to stay in this game – or at least cover through the back door. It’s also worth teasing Ravens -1 linked with Eagles -1 on Black Friday.

Gesicki returned to action last week and immediately re-emerged as Cincy's TE1. He ran over 60% of the routes, surpassing all other Bengals TEs. Cincy's WR2 Tee Higgins will miss this game, which is significant for Gesicki. In 5 games without Higgins last season, Gesicki averaged 62.4 YPG and more than 7 targets per game. I expect Burrow to look for his TE safety valve if he's under pressure in his first start back. The +7 Bengals are likely to be playing in a trailing game script, which should give Gesicki his opportunities to clear this number.

The Ravens are typically a strong matchup for opposing linebackers, and this season is no different. Since Week 6, opposing linebackers are averaging a combined 20 tackles vs. Baltimore. (The highest season-long average is 18.7). That sets up Barrett Carter for another big game. The Bengals rookie made an insane 16 stops last week against New England, giving him four double-digit-tackle games in the last six. With Derrick Henry projected for a big workload, Carter has a great chance to clear this total.

DraftKings (at -125). Derrick Henry has cleared this rush attempts line in six straight games. Lamar Jackson doesn’t seem 100% healthy - in the four games since returning from injury, he’s had seven designed rushes. However, the Ravens have maintained a 52% neutral gamescript rush rate (per RotoViz) - even higher than their average of this full season, or last. And Baltimore should dominate time of possession. The Ravens defense has been dominant of late, and Joe Burrow (who is a notoriously slow starter to his seasons), is likely to show rust after being sidelined since Week 2. The Bengals allow the second most offensive plays per game this season at 66, and were 27th in the same metric last season at 64.7 (with Burrow).

Joe Burrow is back and it might not be too late for the Bengals to make a late-season run in the AFC North after they have done the same a few times in recent years. At 3-8, Cincy's playoff hopes seem remote, but no team is convincing in the North, certainly not the Steelers, nor even the Ravens, who have taken advantage of the schedule to win five straight. Lamar Jackson looks to be playing at about 60%, his hamstring preventing the electric bolts from the pocket we've been used to seeing in recent years. Even Derrick Henry is having a harder time finding room to run. The Bengals have usually been close in their losses, and Burrow's return could provide a spark. Play Bengals

The Bengals give up the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends (87.45 per game) and the most yards per catch to the position (12.66). They also give up the most targets per game (10.09) to tight ends. While Isaiah Likely hasn't been a big factor lately, he has run 49 routes over the past three games (compared to Mark Andrews' 64). He also has three-plus targets in four straight games. Look for Likely to clear this prop total for only the second time all season.

The is a clear funnel to attack this year with tight ends. Does the team playing the Bengals have a good tight end that gets red zone targets? If the answer is yes, bet their Anytime Touchdown. The Bengals have given up 13 touchdowns to tight ends this season. The next closest team has given up seven touchdowns to the tight end position. Mark Andrews is a prime example of this. He has a 27.3% target share in the red zone and eight endzone targets. I know this isn't an exciting ATD price, but we're still getting slightly plus money, which is a win. Now, let's cash a win with Andrews.

The Ravens have only one player who has caught more than two touchdowns this year, and that's Andrews with five. Even as his overall production comes nowhere close to his past levels, he remains a threat in the red zone, and he could also be an option in a tush-push scenario. The best reason to like Andrews is that the Bengals have allowed 13 receiving TDs to tight ends this year, with no other team giving up more than seven. I like anything better than even odds here, and I'd also look for a Charlie Kolar sprinkle with the matchup.

The Ravens offense has the opportunity to get back on track against a bad Bengals defense, but that was the case last week against the Jets and they managed just 241 total yards. Jackson hasn't looked healthy since returning from injury at the end of October, and he's been under 200 passing yards and a 60% completion rate in three straight games while rushing for less than 15 yards in three of his last four. I expect the Baltimore defense to have success against a potentially rusty Joe Burrow, and on a short week I expect topping either of his passing or rushing yardage lines will be tough. I love backing the Under in the combined prop where we're getting a little extra wiggle room.

Second highest total in Thanksgiving night game history! Cincy starting Joe Burrow with their season pretty much over is an asinine decision in my opinion, but I don't think it will create a shootout. The Ravens have played Under this total in 6 straight games, and the addition of FS Alohi Gillman has greatly improved their secondary. Bengals WR2 Tee Higgins will miss this game, allowing Ravens DBs to double and bracket Ja'Marr Chase more freely. Baltimore's offense has struggled to hit the accelerator, creating run-heavy under game scripts. Cincy has scored 20 or fewer points in 6 games this season, and this game will be played in the cold Baltimore atmosphere. Even if Burrow starts, I don't see this game breaking 50.

Chase Brown has averaged 18.5 carries and 103 rushing yards over his last two games. Over his last five games, he's averaging 5.97 yards per carry. He shredded a stout New England defense last week and should have plenty of opportunities at Baltimore, even with Samaje Perine coming back. After a horrific start to the season, Brown has been an efficient runner in five of his past six games. In cold conditions, look for Brown to be a big factor on the ground.

Joe Burrow is set to return to action after a long layoff, but I wonder how much rust he'll have and he's not going to have Tee Higgins available. That's a shame as the Ravens defense is playing at an elite level, with only four offensive touchdowns allowed in their last five games. On the other side, the historically awful Bengals defense actually played well last week, holding the Patriots to one offensive TD. Lamar Jackson also hasn't looked right running the Baltimore offense in recent weeks, completing less than 60% of his passing in each of the last three weeks while throwing just one TD combined. These teams have a history of shootouts, but the state of both offenses has me liking the Under.

Burrow and Chase are back, baby. Perhaps the league's best pass combo return -- QB Joe Burrow from injury rehab, WR Ja'Marr Chase from a spitting-related suspension. Their Cincinnati team is likely cropped out of the playoff picture, but the pair's return and the chance to spoil Thanksgiving night for the Ravens provides motivation. While Baltimore is on a roll, its offense lacks the dynamism of past teams, in no small part because QB Lamar Jackson deals with assorted minor injuries. His rush stats last Sunday -- seven carries, 11 yards -- suggest he is hestant to, as the announcers say, "use his legs." The Bengals have a habit of heating up down the stretch. They can light the fire big-time here.

Joe Burrow will return but surely be a bit rusty (and probably not super mobile), and he won't have Tee Higgins. Star pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson remains out on defense. And these defenses couldn't be more different. Baltimore has won five straight and has the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense in that span. Cincinnati is allowing 32.7 PPG this season, third-worst by a team in the Super Bowl Era. Last 6.5 on our board, although maybe the Burrow news makes a few more appear.