The Seahawks are a much better team than most perceive, with their losses coming to a healthy 49ers squad in Week 1 and the electric Buccaneers offense at moderate strength. The Commanders have fallen off a bit in Year 2 behind Jayden Daniels (2-2 in games he’s started and finished), who is set to play alongside Laremy Tunsil with Terry McLaurin still sidelined. The real problem with Washington, though, is its defense and thin secondary. Seattle is 3-0 on the road (2-0 on the East Coast) and coming off extra rest. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is poised for a big game, so check his props.

Late money loves the home dog in this matchup, especially with Seattle's Cooper Kupp being ruled out. But the Seahawks are clearly the better team and the Commanders won't have top wideout Terry McLaurin to help Jayden Daniels in his return. Sam Darnold leads the NFL in explosive pass plays and is facing a Washington defense that ranks 27th in defending them. Seattle also owns the NFL's best run defense.

FanDuel. The Seahawks are down three of their top five receivers tonight, with the big loss being Cooper Kupp. This should open up opportunity for promising rookie tight-end, Elijah Arroyo, who is coming off a 42 yard performance (5 targets). While his snap share was pedestrian, the injuries and bye-week rookie bump are working in his favor. Also helping is the matchup - the Commanders are 27th in DVOA against tight-ends (per FTN). This is highly variable, because there are some snap share assumptions baked into my projections, but I’d bet this up to over 27.5.

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin has been ruled out of this game, and their best offensive linemen LT Laremy Tunsil is banged up. The Seahawks defense travels well, as they’ve yet to give up more than 20 points when playing on the road. Despite losing in a 28-7 blowout, Washington’s defense showed some fight last week against the Chiefs. I’m expecting a competitive game that stays under the key number of 48.

The Seattle Seahawks have the top receiver in the NFL in terms of yards, and for a set yardage prop amongst wide receivers. Throughout Njigba’s success it has not translated to other receivers on Seattle benefitting. Expect that to change tonight for rookie wideout Tory Horton, who does have a red zone connection with Sam Darnold with three touchdowns this season. After no catches his last two games, Horton does enough to clear his adjusted yardage prop.

No hints of 2024 yet for the Commanders, yet to flash some of the magic and spark that we saw constantly a season ago. The status of Jayden Daniels (who missed Monday vs. the Chiefs with hamstring issues) is likely to be a go for Sunday night, but he'll be minus key target Terry McLaurin, back on the shelf. Commanders have lost back-to-back games by 20+ points. Meanwhile, Seattle is well-rested off a bye, and has continued to excel on the road, where it has won all three of its starts this season, as well as five of six overall as Sam Darnold continues to prove a very worthwhile QB signing in the offseason, and at least a slight upgrade from Geno Smith. Play Seahawks

Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been an inefficient runner the past three weeks, rushing for a total of 119 yards on 39 carries (3.05 ypc). Now he faces a stout Seattle run defense that allows a league-low 3.3 yards per carry. Over the past three games, the Seahawks are allowing just 2.9 yards per carry. Commanders left tackle Laremy Tunsil is questionable with a hamstring injury. Even with Jayden Daniels returning, look for Croskey-Merritt to keep struggling.

The Commanders fell apart in the second half against the Chiefs Monday after a solid start from Marcus Mariota, and I'm worried about their offense if Laremy Tunsil's hamstring injury keeps him sidelined on the short week. The Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the NFL, giving up more than 20 points only once. That's in stark contrast to a Washington defense that's allowed 24+ in six of its last seven games. With an extra week to prepare, I see Mike Macdonald's defense dictating this matchup and the Seattle offense scoring at least 24 to cover. I'd make this line Seahawks -4 so grab the available 3s while you can.