Not bought into the Texans simply because they took advantage of ailing defenses fielded by the 49ers and Ravens – teams playing backup quarterbacks, by the way -- in October. The Broncos have their own issues barely pulling out wins against the Giants and Jets, but they are going to get after CJ Stroud, who generally struggles under pressure. The absence of Patrick Surtain II is an issue – Denver’s defense will need to adjust, especially with Nico Collins and Christian Kirk back – but it’s not a killshot. In a matchup that could come down to a point on either side, I want to be in the plus category with the side that has proven capable of slowing down explosive offenses.

Was that really a buy signal on the Texans last week against a beaten up 49ers squad? Back-and-forth efforts previously didn't seem go-with signals. Meanwhile, it's five wins on the spin for the Broncos, who put together their best 60 minutes of the season last Sunday vs. Dallas. That's also 77 points scored in the past five quarters starting with that wild 4th Q rally vs. the Giants two weeks ago, as the Broncos continue to balance their offense with JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey running the ball and Bo Nix passing. Meanwhile, Denver's sack happy defense will likely have CJ Stroud on the run much of Sunday as the Texans also face a much more disruptive defense than they saw last week. Play Broncos

Broncos linebacker Alex Singleton has cleared this prop total in five of his last seven games, including an 11-tackle performance last week. Houston’s improving offense, and its newfound commitment to heavy formations and rushing, give Singleton a great opportunity to go Over. It doesn't hurt that the NRG Stadium stat crew is on the generous side.

Both of these offenses are set for tough matchups this week, with the Broncos' top pressure defense up against an abysmal Houston offensive line. The Texans offense scored just four TDs in four games against legitimate defensive opponents, throwing out the Titans, decimated Ravens and last-place in pressure rate 49ers. The Broncos should also struggle against an elite Texans defense, so I'm surprised this total has creeped up. I don't think it's going to get to 41 anywhere, so I'll take the 40.5 at FanDuel.

The Texans offense looked incredible last week without Nico Collins, who should be back here. But that was against the defense with the worst pressure rate in the league that was down its top two edge rushers. This is against a Denver defense with the best pressure rate in the league, and I expect them to have a lot of success against the Houston offensive line to help overcome the Patrick Surtain injury. The question is what will the Broncos do offensively in a tough matchup, but I like catching points in a low-total game like this where I have no confidence in the offense that's favored.

The Broncos are red-hot, but will be without reigning NFL Defensive POY Patrick Surtain II here. Houston is outstanding on defense, but Denver will still be right there with them. I expect this to be a game decided in the final 2-3 minutes, with the Broncos prevailing.

If you're looking at the season trends for Dobbins, you'd be taking his over on his longest rush as he's only gone under on this prop once this season. Add to that he continues to get plenty of volume, but a lot of his efficiency this year has been against poor rush defenses. This week he's up against a Top 5 rush defense on the road, and while I think the volume continues, I don't think we see him break any long runs. Not only are the Texans a great rush defense, but they're also great at creating immediate contact on rush attempts. I think it will be tough sledding for Dobbins.

This is a very difficult matchup for Bo Nix and the Broncos offense facing off against an excellent pass rush combined with an elite coverage unit. The Broncos will need to get the ball out quickly this week and Engram looks like the leading candidate to benefit from this, especially without Marvin Mims has been ruled out this week. Engrams 25% Targets Per Route Run on quick throws leads all Denver pass catchers. Engram has also seen his route participation climb in recent weeks and is settling in as one of Bo Nix’s top targets. Considering the low number here there still feels like plenty of meat on the bone for Engram in a matchup that plays to his strengths.

While the Broncos offense has been white hot the last five quarters we can't help but ask does it really matter? Denver shredded the Giants in the 4th quarter once cluster injuries mounted in the secondary and last week against Dallas they did what everyone with a 1st team offense does to the Cowboys. Houston won't be a pushover at home and has the kind of stingy defensive backfield to make life miserable for Bo Nix throwing into zone. Meanwhile the Broncos defense was dealt a major blow losing Surtain so while the pass rush should be fine coverage on the back end gets downgraded. I expect Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and Dalton Schultz all to be a go here so the ML is cheap

For my last kicker prop on the site, I'm playing a surprising under. Houston has only surrendered FOUR successful field goals all season through seven games. That's incredible. Only one kicker (Jason Myers) has two against them and considering I'm predicting a low-scoring game in Week 9, give me Wil Lutz's under this week.

Christian Kirk and Nico Collins have resumed practicing, which gives Houston a chance to build on its offensive momentum from last week (469 yards, 26 points vs. San Fran). Bo Nix torched Cincinnati, Dallas and the Giants (after they lost three defensive starters), but I don't like his chances against the Texans' healthy, elite defense. Patrick Surtain's absence should help C.J. Stroud lead Houston to a much-needed home win.

Denver has looked great at times and sure did Sunday, but we just learned on MNF pre-game that reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain is out at least four weeks. That's the biggest cornerback injury in the NFL by far and maybe behind only a few pass-rushers in 2025. Houston has turned things around, need this win way more and CJ Stroud comes off his highest passing yardage total of the season. This has flipped to -1 or -1.5 on Houston at a few books but BR is still giving me +1.