Isaiah Likely returned from his foot injury four games ago but has yet to make a splash, catching just five passes for 26 yards. But he has barely played with Lamar Jackson. And this is a great matchup for tight ends. Kyle Pitts caught all nine of his targets vs. Miami last week for 59 yards. Likely ran 15 routes last week compared to Mark Andrews' 14 and Charlie Kolar's seven. That kind of participation isn't great, but it should be noted Likely ran twice as many routes as Andrews in play-action situations. Look for Likely to finally make an impact Thursday night.

Baltimore just put up 30 points without Lamar Jackson. Jackson is back tonight and while he may not be 100%, the Ravens still have a favorable matchup against Miami. The Dolphins defense is allowing a little south of 27 points per game along with the 23rd rushing defense and worst tackling team. Baltimore’s defense isn’t much better, allowing 30 points per game and while they’re getting healthier on that side, the Dolphins have still scored 20 points, or more, in six of their last seven. The over is also 13-2 combined in each teams last 15 games.

DraftKings. While Derrick Henry has only cleared this line in 3/7 games this season, there is plenty of room for optimism for his over tonight. Firstly, Lamar Jackson is back, which is a massive boost to the Ravens offense and outlook as a whole. Jackson will improve the dwindling passing game, but should also serve as a decoy on the ground for King Henry. The Ravens hold the fourth highest rushing play percentage in neutral situations, and I don’t see that changing today. Conversely, teams have been running both efficiently and with volume against the Dolphins 21st ranked run defense (per FTN’s DVOA metric). Teams are using the ground game at the third highest rate in neutral situations against them (per Roto Viz).

Lamar Jackson returns to action on Thursday for a healthy Ravens offense, and that should be good news for Flowers. The Ravens' WR1 has six catches in five of his seven games overall and in three of Jackson's four starts as he has become the primary passing game weapon for Baltimore. Even though Miami gives up just under 10 receptions to WRs per game, Flowers has around 58% of receptions by Baltimore WRs, so I think he should be favored to get to six here. With Jackson in his first game back from a long-term injury, we could also see him scramble less and take more shots to his top receiver. I expect Flowers to once again be in the 6-7 reception range tonight.

The Dolphins are big underdogs in this game, and therefore it's expected Achane could see a lot of receiving work. It makes sense, as he's tied for the team lead in receptions, but the problem is that those receptions typically don't go very far, with the running back averaging just 6.4 yards per catch. That's why he's only topped 30 receiving yards once this year, getting there in only one of the four games where he's reached five receptions, which is where he's expected to be here with 5.5 receptions heavily juiced to the Under.

DraftKings/MGM. While Malik Washington has seen his target share bump up without Tyreek Hill, I see this as a plus matchup for his under on his longest reception prop. Washington is under this line in seven of eight games, with an average depth of target of 4.1 yards. He has not caught a pass that’s traveled at least 10 air yards. The Ravens run man coverage at the league’s third highest rate, and a single-high safety look at the league’s fourth highest rate. Washington’s win rate of 6.5% against man coverage is eleventh worst amongst 154 qualified receivers, and 1.4% against single-high safety looks is third worst. The Ravens also are allowing the third fewest yards after catch per reception (4.42).

It's not too late for the Ravens in the AFC North after breaking their four-game skid last week vs. Chicago. The fading Steelers are now within sight in the division, and with two games still to go vs. Pittsburgh, Baltimore also controls its own destiny. The Ravens get QB Lamar Jackson back in the fold tonight in Miami after the offense finally showed some life behind longtime sidekick Tyler Huntley last week. Jackson certainly provides an added dimension, though the Ravens might need to stand on the accelerator a bit at Hard Rock after the Dolphins stirred behind Tua Tagovailoa's 4 TD pass at Atlanta last Sunday. Note six straight Miami overs prior to last week. Play Ravens-Dolphins Over.

Despite a glut of injuries, the Miami defense has been pretty good against the pass in allowing 199.4 YPG. Lamar Jackson has put up some video game numbers in the past against his sorta hometown team -- from up the road in the Boynton Beach area -- but the Fins usually can't stop the run at all. So I just don't think L-Jax will need to pass that much. Steady doses of Derrick Henry all night and maybe a little Lamar himself on the ground, although he's coming off a hammy injury. Our model (Jackson 241 yards passing) and our AI (189.8 yards passing) massively disagree. Catfight! Jackson has only topped this once in his four starts so far in 2025.

The 2025 season has been disappointing for Derrick Henry so far. After a monster game against the bad Bills' run defense in Week 1, it's been a rough season. But he had two rushing touchdowns last week and 122 rushing yards the week before. Now the stars are aligning for a monster Derrick Henry game. Lamar Jackson will be back to help open rush lanes for Henry. Henry has rushed for 5.9 yards per carry with Jackson on the field and 3.7 yards per carry without Jackson. Enter a great matchup, as the Dolphins' defense is one to target for running backs. The Dolphins allow five yards per carry to running backs and 117.6 rushing yards per game.

Since Tyreek Hill suffered a serious knee injury against the Jets in Week 4, Jaylen Waddle has assumed the role of Miami's No. 1 wideout. Waddle has recorded 95-plus receiving yards in three of the four games, the exception coming at Cleveland in difficult conditions against an elite defense. I expect the Dolphins to be playing catch-up and for Tua Tagovailoa to target Waddle heavily. Waddle has drawn six-plus targets in six of the past seven games, the outlier coming at Cleveland. I would play this to 64.5.

This looks like a Ravens smash spot. Lamar Jackson is back (for real this time). After last week's win and improved defensive performance, the Ravens looked poised to hit the accelerator and jump right back into the AFC North picture. When playing on a short week, Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, losing by an average of 14 ppg. I feel that Miami's win over Atlanta last week was more of a "dead cat bounce" than a sign of real hope. The Falcons are disappearing artists. Baltimore's healthy offense can exploit Miami's 31st DVOA ranked defense to get their mojo going. The last time Tua Tagovailoa faced the Ravens, he threw 2 interceptions in a game that Baltimore won 56-19.

Last 29.5 I see available on the board is at Bet Rivers. Baltimore backup QB Tyler Huntley helped the Ravens put up 30 last week against the Bears. Now they get back their MVP QB Lamar Jackson, who will have his full complement of blockers; FB Patrick Ricard, TE Isaiah Likely, and LT Ronnie Stanley. Now they face a Dolphins team on a short week, who are coming off an impressive upset win over the Falcons, but are not to be trusted. Miami’s weak run defense is likely to get pummeled by Derrick Henry & crew. John Harbaugh has faced Mike McDaniel twice with Lamar Jackson starting at QB… Baltimore dropped 94 combined points in those two games.

Lamar Jackson is expected to be back for the Ravens in this matchup, which is contributing to this total being in the 50s. I don't think that's giving credit to the Ravens defense getting healthy coming out of their bye in Week 7. The Dolphins offense doesn't seem like it has nearly as much to worry about as Chicago last week for Baltimore, and I see it as unlikely that Tua Tagovailoa strings together two good games in a row. I expect the Ravens' offensive gameplan to be a bit conservative with Jackson returning from injury as they stick to running the ball and keeping the clock moving. This total is about 2-3 points too high for me.

Prior to an inexplicable rushing no show from Bijan Robinson (the Falcons gave him just nine carries after getting behind early against the Dolphins) the Dolphins had surrendered a three-TD game to Quinshon Judkins, a 120+ yard game to Kimani Vidal and a 200-yard game to Rico Dowdle on the ground. I'm trusting Baltimore to lean into Henry here and would expect this number to move up as we get closer to Thursday if Lamar Jackson is cleared. If you have BetRivers you can still get 86.5 -- this number will climb into the mid 90's by kickoff bare minimum. Short week, injured QB, you feed the Big Dog and secure a win as a heavy road favorite.