Was just listening to ESPN pre-game that Travis Kelce is one TD shy of tying the all-time franchise record of 83 held by Priest Holmes (Fantasy legend from 2001 to about mid-2004) and I'm sure that's something Patrick Mahomes would like to make happen at home with the MNF spotlight if possible. I have no idea if Taylor Swift is there and don't care whatsoever, but I believe she has been at every home game and TK does tend to have much better numbers when in attendance.

This line soared during the week before coming back to reality with kickoff approaching, and while the Chiefs have not been a great cover team the last few years as significant favorites, they are actually 4-1 ATS I the last five games with our double-digit victories. Comfortable at home with the Jayden Daniels-less Commanders visiting, Kansas City has every notable edge in this game. And as we have seen this season, there is a wide gulf between the contenders and pretenders in the NFL. Washington will play competently, but it has struggled against good defenses on the road. Even more concerning is its defense, which looked horrendous last week against Dallas. Might even take a flier on a Chiefs defensive score Monday night.

DraftKings/Caesar’s. Both Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin will return for the Commanders tonight. In the three games they played together, Samuel registered just a 3.4 average depth of target, while running 81% of his routes in the slot (data per PFF). The Chiefs should serve as a brutal matchup for Deebo and the Commanders pass catchers in general. Kansas City has allowed the lowest yards per catch to opposing receivers, and the fourth lowest specifically out of the slot. The Chiefs don’t allow deep passes (only 13 completions of 15+ air yards), and Deebo isn’t the YAC threat he once was.

The Chiefs weathered an early storm, and after impressive thumpings of the Lions and Raiders at Arrowhead, now look prepared to make their usual run into the second half of the season. Getting Rashee Rice back to active duty provides another target for Patrick Mahomes, but the other plus for KC is Steve Spagnuolo's defense, which completed stifled the Raiders in last week's 31-0 shutout. Bad news for Washington, again minus QB Jayden Daniels for the second time this season, and the defense springing all sort of leaks last week at Dallas. Washington doesn't appear to have the magic it displayed last season. Play Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is on pace to have the most productive season of his career when it comes to rushing yards. He enters Monday with 250 rushing yards in 2025, and he has gone over this number three times this season so far. I expect him to do it again against Washington on Monday.

Kansas City has been dominant in two straight games -- wins over the Lions and Raiders. The Chiefs jumped out to first half leads in both games (and have in five straight total games), and I expect the same to happen on Monday night.

After a slow start, the Chiefs have caught fire, and are widely considered to be the best team in the league right now. Patrick Mahomes is playing MVP-caliber football, and the Kansas City defense has allowed 17 points in its last two outings. Washington will have Marcus Mariota at QB on Monday, and while he is more than serviceable, he isn't Jayden Daniels. I expect the Chiefs to roll on MNF.

At 48.5 I’m firing on the Under. Kansas City has historically been a “home under” team, particularly in the 2nd half (33-15 to 2H Under since 2023). If the -11.5 Chiefs have a lead after the first half, I can see them sapping the life out of this game with long extended drives. Conversely, if the Commanders want to compete they can’t get into a shootout with Mahomes. They should be looking to beat KC’s run defense, and keep Mahomes on the sidelines while the clock runs. I like the Under in a potential blowout or run-heavy game script. Also, KC plays Buffalo next week, so they could take their foot off the gas if they’ve got this game in the bag.

DraftKings (-129). Bobby Wagner has cleared this line in six of seven games this season, with one miss at 8 last week (subbed out for the last drive in a blowout). While another rout is possible tonight, I do love Wagner to rack up the tackles. The Commanders should have a tough time staying on the field with Marcus Mariota under center. Washington has lost the time of possession battle in both of his starts, and the Chiefs defense is third in EPA since Week 3. Kansas City’s offense has also been much more efficient of late, allowing for some massive tackle totals for opposing linebackers (Oluokun with 14, Anzalone 12, Roberts 18 and White 16 all over the last three weeks).

Mariota has been an efficient backup QB for the Commanders, but he hasn't needed to gunsling to lead them to success. Washington dropped 41 points on the woeful Raiders in Week 3, but Mariota still only threw for 207 yards. Against the Falcons indoors the following week, Mariota threw for just 156 passing yards. Now he'll face a stingy KC secondary that allows the 3rd fewest passing yards per game (174.6). The Chiefs gave up only 203 passing yards to Jared Goff & the explosive Lions offense last week. To beat the Chiefs as wide underdogs, Washington will need to put together long drives that keep Mahomes on the sidelines, which should have them prioritize the run game (at least early on).

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have spoken highly of Smith in recent weeks, as he seems to be an excellent fit in this KC offense. Smith actually played WR in college before transitioning to RB, and you can see the skills when he's out there lined up in the slot. Smith is over this receiving yards line in 4 straight games, and has plenty of potential to clear it again if this game gets ugly. If the -11.5 Chiefs have the lead in the first half, I expect Smith to get involved earlier than normal. KC has injuries on the O-line as well, so an RB receiving prop for a promising rookie like Smith in a possible Chiefs smash spot seems like a logical play.

Commanders backup QB Marcus Mariota has an ideal play-style to fit into this offense. His dual-threat ability keeps the playbook open for Dan Quinn, who can draw up designed runs and similar calls that he would with Jayden Daniels under center. I like the fact that Washington WRs Terry McLaurin & Deebo Samuel will suit up, because now the talented KC DBs actually have someone to cover. That should open up scramble opportunities against Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo, who we know loves to dial up the blitz. Mariota is over this line in 2/3 games this season, including last week against Dallas when he entered in Q3.

Chiefs running back Brashard Smith played a season-high 28 snaps last week. Part of that was the blowout scenario vs. the Raiders, but part of it was Andy Reid continuing to give the rookie a bigger role. Smith has caught three or more passes for 21-plus yards in four straight games. The Commanders have given up 11.2 yards per catch to opposing RBs, the second-most in the NFL. Look for Smith to keep getting looks in the passing game.

It's a nice setup for Isiah Pacheco as he gets a likely positive game script for a majority of this game. He's passed this rushing attempt total in each of the last two games and I don't see any reason why he doesn't remain the feature running back for the Chiefs on MNF. Kareem Hunt may get some looks, but he's got a bit of an ankle issue that could limit his work and I doubt we see Brashard Smith showcased in this game with the Bills on deck. I also think the Chiefs will move the ball with relative ease and that will mean extended drives and extended looks for Pacheco.

Our model has the Chiefs right at 30 points and I'd not play any lower than this for Monday. The weather looks rather dreary in Kansas City, and Patrick Mahomes likely will be down his starting left tackle (Josh Simmons is out) and right guard (Trey Smith is doubtful) due to injuries/personal reasons (Simmons has missed a few games). Washington has allowed at least 31 points twice in seven games. I think this might have some blowout potential so maybe the Chiefs let off the gas if up like 27-6, etc., in the fourth. And hopefully it does rain for these purposes.

Yes, Jayden Daniels will miss the MNF affair at Arrowhead but Marcus Mariota goes into battle with a full complement of weapons. Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Bill, etc -- the Commanders will have difference makers. On the other side, KC is just getting going offensively and the matchup couldn't be better against this Washington defense. Look for both teams to have strong scripts early and that's why I prefer the first half total compared to the full game, especially below the key of 24.

In his three appearances this season, Marcus Mariota has ripped off two 22-yard runs and a 25-yard scamper. The Commanders will call designed runs for Mariota, and he should scramble plenty against this aggressive Chiefs' defense (sixth-highest blitz rate). Even with wideouts Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel practicing fully, I bet Mariota to record at least 24 rushing yards.

The Commanders will be without Jayden Daniels and their best pass rusher, but this number seems overadjusted to me. The Chiefs were laying the same amount of points against the Raiders last week, and a Commanders team likely to be healthier at WR with Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel trending toward returning is in a much better spot than Vegas was last week. Marcus Mariota is a fine fill-in, and the Commanders have averaged about 33 points in the four games he's seen significant playing time the last two years. The Chiefs are my top rated team and I still can't get this spread projection past 10.