In addition to the tricky 10 a.m. Pacific kickoff, the Seahawks are gutted in the secondary missing cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen and safety Julian Love. Outside linebacker Derick Hall is also out. Meanwhile, I say the Jags upgraded their secondary this week by trading Tyson Campbell to Cleveland for Greg Newsome.

It was interesting to see this line flip during the week, mostly due to injury issues that should not affect the Jaguars that much when all is considered. The Seahawks are not as healthy defensively as they would like with three defensive backs still out, but they do (somehow) play better away from home, and Sam Darnold is clearly the better quarterback in this game from an efficiency and explosiveness standpoint. Jacksonville’s win over Kansas City last week was a bit flukey, and the team has been overly reliant on turnovers for success … there should be some regression to the mean there. This is more of a coin-flip call, but the Seahawks are better set up offensively to get points as needed late.

Corner Jourdan Lewis has supplied a big boost to the Jags' secondary. That said, he's registered seven combined stops in the past three games. Seattle runs the ball 50 percent of the time -- tied with Buffalo for the league lead. Look for Lewis to finish Under this prop total for the fourth straight time.

The Seahawks might be 9-1 SU on its travels under coach Mike Macdonald, with eight wins in a row, but they have not journeyed nearly this far for a game. Nor have they taken the field without three key DBs out, which appears likely here. Devon Witherspoon, Ric Woolen and Julian Love are listed as doubtful. A pass rush would help compensate for their absence, but Seattle barely laid a hand on Baker Mayfield last Sunday. The Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence has suffered just six sacks this season. Jacksonville is 4-1 outright and outgained the Bengals in the lone loss.

Liam Coen is off to an impressive start in Jacksonville. But it's unlikely the Jaguars keep manufacturing game-changing turnovers at the current rate. The Seahawks just put up 8.6 yards per play versus Tampa Bay and rank third for the season at 6.3. Seattle is on track to get key contributors back on defense. With Jacksonville on a short week following an emotional win, I bet the road team.

This line is as high as 239.5. We have a tight game script here which leads to plenty back and forth. The Jags are allowing the 2nd most attempts and 7th most completions, with over 250 yards a game. Sam Darnold is playing at an elite level -- top 3 in completion percentage and passer rating, leading in EPA per dropback and yards per attempt (9.3). He's throwing to one of the NFL's best in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has the 2nd most receiving yards in the NFL and he has an elite number two in Cooper Kupp. He also has TE AJ Barner who went 7 for 7 last week. Even better, they have a balanced offense with Walker and Charbonnett out of the backfield.

In our last pick, we identified a positive regression candidate in BTJ, here we have the opposite with Travis Etienne who I think is a great fade this week. Etienne has had some big runs this season, but those are simply not sustainable, and he ranks low in Success Rate which is additional evidence he has run hot. He gets a very tough matchup versus a Seattle run defense that is 3rd in EPA allowed per rush, in addition to ranking 5th in Success Rate.

I’m going to continue to beat the drum for Brian Thomas Jr. who has allthe makings of a major positive regression candidate. For starters, BTJ has elite route participation paired with his first read target rate (meaning the passing offense still primarily runs through him). He’s also running strong routes as evidenced by his Open Score. Finally he gets a plus matchup against an extremely banged up Seahawks defense that is a significant pass funnel in a game with shoot out potential and a healthy total. This line should be at least 63.5 and this is a 1.5u play for me.

Sam Darnold's over/under since 2024 when he became a full time starter again is 14-14 so you can understand where they got the +105 line. He had an INT meltdown las season at Jacksonville with 3 interceptions and what made that notable was last year's Jags team only had 3 interceptions in their other 16 games! If he had 3 vs last year we like him to have at least one against a Jacksonville defense that leads the NFL with 10 interceptions.

Seattle played a whale of a game last week vs the Bucs, ultimately a late fluky turnover prevented them from winning. But they have been one of the more consistent teams in the NFL all season long. Jacksonville, despite their record has still been a bit more up-and-down offensively, which gives me enough confidence to back the Seahawks.

I like this spot for Seattle. Jacksonville is coming off the emotional win over the Chiefs and while Trevor Lawrence played well on the final drive, it overshadowed an otherwise inconsistent performance. I think it's a good matchup for a Seahawks team that already has two road wins this season. I'll back Seattle as a short dog.