For a month the biggest question with the Chargers offense has been where is Ladd McConkey. A crowded wide receiver room and ball control offense minimized his effectiveness since week one against the Chiefs. With Quentin Johnston out, and a banged up offensive line look for Justin Herbert to redirect his attention to McConkey. Take his over today against the Dolphins.

Tagovailoa is under this passing yards mark in 3/5 games this year, failing to eclipse 200 in each of those games. Without WR1 Tyreek Hill, this Dolphins offense is a shell of itself. They will go up against a stingy Chargers defense that plays a heavy rate of zone coverage. This is significant because Tagovailoa has done quite well against man coverage, but ranks 30th in EPA/play against zone. The Chargers are super banged up at RB & OL, and will need their defense to step up and shut down Miami if they want to snap their two-game losing skid. I like SS Derwin James and company to keep Tagovailoa in check.

Tua and that Dolphins offense usually hums at home and our model has them with 23 points. Throw out that Week 1 stinker at Indy, and Miami has topped this in every game thus far. L.A. is a good defensive team but one of those tricky 10 a.m. Pacific kickoffs.

Maybe the Chargers ought to make a call to Dickie Post or Hank Bauer, because they're running short of RBs. Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris are both on the shelf so Jim Harbaugh likely leans on little-used Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal as infantry diversions for Justin Herbert, who has been under siege in the Bolts' 2-game losing streak. Miami doesn't exactly inspire much confidence, conspiring to lose again last week at Carolina, but the Dolphins usually play 'em close, and Tua T has fired 7 TD passes vs. just one pick the past three games. Play Dolphins

B365/MGM. I’ll start by saying that this bet does have a bit of potential variance attached to it. Hassan Haskins is amongst the next men up for the depleted Chargers backfield. While his role isn’t defined, we do know he’ll be starting, and likely have the first crack at early down and short yardage work. The matchup couldn’t be better, as the Dolphins rank 27th in rush defense DVOA (per FTN), and allow the highest run-play first down rate (a big plus for a short-yardage back) Jim Harbaugh won’t abandon the run, and Haskins should have a leg up on both Kimani Vidal and Nyheim Hines, both of whom were recently on the practice squad.

Herbert is going to have to use his legs this weekend as injuries continue to deplete the LA roster. He's now without his top RB in Omarion Hampton, top receiver Quentin Johnston is questionable and more importantly, his left tackle Joe Alt is out as well as their right tackle. Miami is allowing the 4th most QB rush attempts, yards, and the 4th highest scramble rate. He has cashed this line in all but one of the last 5 weeks, averaging almost 37 in that stretch. Expect him to be flushed out of the pocket early and often.

The Chargers started the season by sweeping the AFC West but dropped their last two games. The Dolphins were embarrassed in Week 1 by a good Colts team and have stayed competitive every week since. I don't know that the gap between these teams is as big as the market suggests, particularly with the Chargers potentially being down their top four tackles if Jamaree Salyer can't go. Perhaps Justin Herbert and the quality receivers still have success against a Miami defense that's been terrible, but we've seen their offensive ceiling lowered the last two weeks. The Dolphins offense needs to continue succeeding on third downs and in the red zone, but if they do they'll be live for the win.

The Chargers defense started out well but they have struggled to stop the run the last three games. They allowed 118 rushing yards on 5.6 ypc to Denver, 161 yards on 3.8 to the Giants when you knew the Giants were going to run a lot, and 163 on 5.8 ypc to Washington where "Bill" had his breakout game. I'm not necessarily expecting Ollie Gordon to have a breakout game, but we are projecting him for 23 rushing yards on 6 carries. De'Von Achane's FD rushing yard line is 56.5… are we really only expecting 70 total rushing yards by the RBs? There should be plenty of opportunities for Gordon to pop one decent carry and at least squeak over 13.5 yards.

Darren Waller popped off last week turning 5 targets into an impressively efficient 5/78/1 stat line. Considering Waller is still on a pitch count, this was certainly an impressive performance, however I don’t believe it’s sustainable and Waller faces a much more difficult matchup this week against a very stingy Charger pass defense who ranks 8th in EPA allowed per dropback, and 2nd in Success Rate. The Chargers have surrendered just 145 yards to opposing Tight Ends this season. With Waller still on a pitch count and already on the injury report, I think there is a strong chance last weeks performance will be his best game of the season.

The Dolphins have proven to have one of the worst defenses in the league thanks in part due to injuries, but they'll be facing a beat up Chargers offense this week that is without its top two RBs and potentially top two OTs if Joe Alt can't return. With the long travel, it's a lot to ask Justin Herbert to go in and run up the score in that situation. The Chargers defense has been a key reason none of their last four games have had more than 43 points, and the Dolphins offense certainly looked less dangerous without Tyreek Hill last week. This feels like a game where both teams could struggle to get to 20.