The hook may be an albatross on what sets up to be a FG game, but given the strong Seahawks defense and significant missing pieces for the Buccaneers offensively, it’s better to be on Seattle’s side. The ability to create pressure on Baker Mayfield without blitzing is key, and the hosts should regularly win at the line of scrimmage on both sides. Tampa Bay will be far less of a running threat with Bucky Irving sidelined, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be able to take advantage of a Bucs secondary down its best cornerback. The Seahawks also have a rest advantage, though playing at home has not exactly been as beneficial for Seattle as the past. Different way to play: -3 on live line.

B365 at -130. In his first season as a full-time starter, Tykee Smith leads the Bucs in combined tackles with 33. Clearing this line in three of four games thus far. Lining up all over the formation, Smith ranks second on the Bucs in both run and pass defense tackling. He gets a solid matchup against the Seahawks who are allowing the seventh most safety tackles per game (14, per PFF data).

Grabbing anything above 3 points could prove valuable for Bucs backers in a game that has three-point margin written all over it vs. '76 expansion-twin Seattle. Every Tampa Bay game has been decided in the last minute, and Baker Mayfield has somewhat perfected his Perils of Pauline act for the Bucs with late-game escapes. Mike Evans' absence is a concern, but Ohio State rookie Emeka Egbuka is turning into the new threat, already on 4 TD catches and burning the Eagles for more than 100 receiving yards last week. Seattle can be expected to play close games like the Thursday nighter last week vs. Arizona, and in a game that looks like a three-pointer either way, taking the points looks a prudent decision. Play Bucs

With Mike Evans sidelined, Chris Godwin returned for the Buccaneers in Week 4. Coming back from injury, I didn't know what to expect for his snap count. But Godwin played 93% of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks and had 10 targets. He only caught three passes last week, but expect him to knock off the rust and convert more of these targets to receptions this week. The Seahawks have also given up the 7th most completions, and they are missing a couple of players in the secondary. I like taking the plus-money prop on 6+ receptions for Godwin in a game where the Buccaneers are slight underdogs and will likely need to keep throwing.

There are quite a few field goals I like this week including Brandon Aubrey (DAL), Spencer Shrader (IND), and Will Reichard (MIN). But Jason Myers has the most reasonable price so he's my pick for the website. Tampa Bay has surrendered multiple field goals in 3 of 4 games and Myers has similarly kicked multiple successful three pointers in 3 of 4 contests. I'll predict that he makes three field goals in a Seattle home victory on Sunday.

Right now, it is tough to find a team who is playing better than the Seattle Seahawks. And that's on both sides of the ball. Seattle's defense will be the difference here in how they are able to cover the spread. The timely stops and ability to get the ball back to an offense that's playing lights out, is a recipe for success.

Emeka Egbuka’s career has gotten off to a sizzling start and the rookie WR has an early lead for OROY. While he’s certainly playing well, some of Egbuka’s underlying metrics suggest he may be a negative regression candidate. Egbuka ranks dead last in Open Score and Chris Godwin appears likely to fill in for Mike Evans as Bakers primary target. This is also an extremely difficult matchup against an excellent Seattle defense that 2nd in defensive passing DVOA. I also like fading Egbuka’s yards, in addition to his receptions.

The targets haven’t been there yet this season like they were last (tied for the 4th most TE targets) but with no Mike Evans and Bucky Irving in a walking boot, we should see extra opportunities. Seattle has given up the most tight end receptions in the league and every TE facing them has caught at least 4 passes, including McBride (7) and Juwan Johnson (6). Otton has cashed this in 2 of his last 3 and is in a prime spot to cash it once again with an ideal matchup and boost in targets.

Bucky Irving is dealing with foot and shoulder injuries, and it's unclear if he'll play. Rachaad White is in for a big workload and I bet him to be effective as a receiver. The Seahawks are giving up the most receiving yards to opposing RBs (66.5 per game) and the second-most targets (8.5 per game). White is a very skilled receiver who has caught 50-plus passes in three straight seasons.

I thought Godwin looked good last week, actually showing some quickness late in the game and precise route running throughout. He was also surprisingly versatile, lining up everywhere and attacking further downfield than I would have anticipated. I suspect the Bucs will struggle to run the ball because of the matchup (not having Bucky Irving is bad news too), so Godwin offers an easy option for Mayfield. Lastly, the dude had just 26 yards last week, so why is this line so high??? It's because the oddsmakers want saps to take the under. They know what I know, and now you know too. Go over.

The key handicap in this matchup is Tampa Bay's run defense, which has been elite, allowing under 90 rushing yards per game. This strength directly counters Seattle's ground game, led by Kenneth Walker III. Forcing the Seahawks into obvious passing situations plays into Tampa Bay's hands, as their secondary has shown improvement. Baker Mayfield has an impressive 15-6 ATS record (71.4%) as an underdog with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, including 8-2 ATS when receiving more than a field goal. I'm not concerned about Bucky Irving missing this game. His average yards per carry (3.3) is significantly lower than backup RB Rachaad White's (4.7). Road Dogs of +3 to +7 have a record of 9-3 straight up and 8-4 ATS in Week 5 since 2012.

The Bucs are coming off their first loss of the season, but the defense played great in allowing just 4.1 yards per play to the Eagles prior to the final safety. Baker Mayfield started slow after a week of practice managing an injury but looked great in the second half hitting two big plays. I didn't see any reason to move down the Bucs' rating, so I see this line moving to 3 as a value on the 'dog. Seattle played well against a Cardinals team that seems like it has a lower ceiling offensively than anticipated, so this figures to be the defense's toughest test of the season. I see these teams as even, and the Seahawks shouldn't get 3 for home field.