The Eagles continue to be disrespected, similar to the Chiefs in 2024 coming off their Super Bowl, for not being as dominant. OK. They’re still winning and covering. While the line is appropriate here, sentiment all week is that the Broncos are the right side. Philadelphia is 3-0 ATS in as many weeks and 9-3 ATS over the last 12 games. A.J. Brown being disgruntled should lead to increased usage (quality teams take care of their stars when they get antsy). Meanwhile, Denver is 1-3 ATS on the season with its lone cover over Cincinnati and its only other win over Tennessee. It is also playing away on the East Coast in a short week. Jalen Hurts can clamp down and pick up late covers.

The whole world is on Eagles ML. According to Sportsline, 94% of the betting tickets and 95% of the money on the handle is on Philly to win this game outright… sketchy. The Eagles have been one of the luckiest teams in the NFL. They now face a top-tier defense, and a head coach in Sean Payton who has been profitable to back as an underdog (58-42-2 ATS). I’ll bet Denver +4.5, and will take it step further with a .5u play on the ML. The Broncos give the Eagles their first loss of the season today.

The 4-0 Eagles are fortunate to still be undefeated. The defending champs do not look as dominant or explosive as they did last year. Saquon Barkley has yet to rush for 100 yards in a game, and Jalen Hurts failed to complete a pass in the entire 2nd half last week against the Bucs. The loss of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore seems to be impacting them. This Broncos defense seems like it has still yet to reach top form. If CB Patrick Surtain is able to lock up A.J Brown, I see Denver’s pass rush getting home and Philly’s offense struggling. The Eagles are due for a loss. I’m going to sprinkle the ML as well.

Are the Eagles living on borrowed time? Not an easy game yet for the Birds, as the offense waits to click. As many defending champs have done in the past, fast starts are often followed by lulls; Jalen Hurts not completing a pass in the 2nd H last week vs. the Bucs should be a concern. Though only vs. downgraded Cincy, the Broncos were clicking on Monday night, especially the ground game with the "initials boys" JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey providing an explosive infantry diversion for Bo Nix. If Denver's big-play defense makes some momentum-changing plays, this might end up reminding of another game in Week 5 that the Broncos played in 1977 vs. another undefeated defending champ...dumping the Raiders 30-7. Play Broncos

B365 at -115. I like this as a matchup where we’ll see plenty of pass attempts from Bo Nix. Digging into the Broncos play-mix - they call pass plays at the eighth highest rate in the first half of games, and play at the second highest pace (excluding the last 2 minutes, data per Roto Viz). While they typically dial it back in the second half and lean on the run, they might not have that luxury against the Eagles. Three of four opposing quarterbacks have cleared this line against the Eagles, who are allowing an average of 39.3 quarterback dropbacks per game. Sean Payton is not afraid to let his quarterback air it out, and this should be a scenario that calls for it.

I love AJ Brown more than I love most of my family members, but this is just a bad matchup, even in a squeaky wheel situation. Yeah, Brown is capable of busting off a monster catch that would wreck this, but full-time coverage from Patrick Surtain should limit what Brown can do you for you in this game. Even if he hits the over on his catches prop (4.5) he still wouldn't clear this number on his per reception yards number for the year. This should be a rockfight and not a shootout.

The Eagles rank 28th in net yards per play, and facing the Broncos' pass defense means it's unlikely we see an AJ Brown breakout. Bo Nix got untracked last week, looking more like the quarterback we saw toward the end of last season. While Philly's injury situation improved significantly Thursday, I'll back a Denver team that could easily be 4-0 to keep this close.

We are projecting J.K. Dobbins for 62 yards even with just 11.7 rushes per sim. His 5.3 career average of 5.7 this season is 100% a stat he has earned. He is always an injury risk, unfortunately but while he's healthy, like he is now he is a consistent 13+ carry per game even if rookie RJ Harvey gets his 40% of RB snaps. The Eagles ability to pressure the QB without blitzing fueled their Super Bowl run but that can result in gaps vs the run which is why they are allowing 4.8 ypc this season. The Rams with their 2 quality RBs cranked out 160 on the ground. The Chiefs with their bad RBs had 121 on 4.7 ypc.

My pick this week with the Broncos over the Eagles is a matter of two teams going in different directions. The Eagles are 4-0 now, but their offense only averages 251 yards per game, which is 30th in the NFL. They've got issues for a 4-0 team. The offensive line hasn't been as good. When I go over to the defensive side, they're allowing 333 yards per game, which is 21st in the NFL. Yeah, they were the champs last year, and they got the hardware, the trophies, and the rings, but the Broncos are playing better right now. Bo Nix has been terrific the last 3 weeks. I think the Broncos pick up the win this week.

The Eagles are one of only two undefeated teams, but I'm not sure they're the best team in this game. They've been outgained in all four games, and only Week 1 was particularly close. The team has a negative-1.6 yards per play differential, but special teams magic and timely turnovers have kept them undefeated. Even accounting for the competition, what the Broncos did Monday was incredible with a +353 yardage differential, the 12th highest total in the last 10 years. I like them down to +3 in this matchup with the Eagles offense struggling.

Despite their offense still trying to find their level of explosiveness, the Eagles have the most important part correct and that's the QB. As long as Jalen Hurts is there, they will find enough plays to win. As regards to covering the spread, their defense can find those stops against Bo Nix and this Broncos passing game.