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Been going back and forth about this one all weekend, ultimately deciding to let the market dictate my play. With the Steelers getting a full field goal, they became the play. While the Vikings are getting their center back along with Jordan Addison, it's tough to buy into Carson Wentz standing up against Pittsburgh's defensive front when he was basically handed a win on a silver platter last week. Aaron Rodgers is the first real test of the season for Minnesota's defense, and in what should be a relatively high-scoring game, I want the points and the better quarterback.
The Pittsburgh Steelers may be a bit susceptible to the run game at this early juncture of the season, but they have the right attitude to compete in that regard. Ultimately this game will come down to which QB can you trust to get the ball out quickly to their targets vs pressure, Carson Wentz or Aaron Rodgers? My money is on the future hall of famer.
A pattern is developing for the Aaron Rodgers version of the Steelers, who have won both games away from home yet lost in their one chance as host at Asrisure Stadium. Thus, we suspect that Dublin won't prove too much of a bother to these road warriors, as Rodgers has been able to make plays when needed in both the opener at the Jets and last week at the Patriots, the two previous Pittsburgh wins. (Rodgers 6 TD passes in those wins combined.) Meanwhile the Vikings were the beneficiary of some real sloppiness last week by Jake Browning and the Bengals, and doubt they will get handed over any TDs as they were last week vs. Cincy. Play Steelers (at Dublin, Ireland)

This is Jordan Addison's season debut, as he's completed his three-game suspension. He comes back to a team that has thrown the ball at the fifth-lowest rate this season (50.3 percent). Minnesota definitely will get Addison involved, but four catches is a big ask with Carson Wentz under center. Pittsburgh has given up the 7th-most rushing yards per game so I'm not expecting the Vikings to suddenly go pass-heavy.

Many expected Carson Wentz to be a boon for T.J. Hockenson's production, and that proved to be the case in Week 3 when the tight end caught five of six targets for 49 yards and a touchdown. Even with Jordan Addison returning, I like Hockenson to stay heavily involved. Pittsburgh has given up the sixth-most yards to opposing tight ends (70.3 per game).
The Steelers were favored on the lookahead line, but the Vikings' big win coupled with an ugly game from the Steelers offense has moved this number four points from last week. Carson Wentz wasn't under pressure to do much in the game thanks to a couple of defensive scores for Minnesota, and I like catching points against the journeyman here. The Vikings have the best unit in the game with their defense, but I see this as having a good chance to come down to field goals on an unfamiliar field, and we also may sneakily have the home field advantage with the Steelers considered Ireland's team.

In Minnesota’s trouncing of the Bengals last week, Mason had 16 carries for 116 yards and was able to rest in the 2nd half. That rest will serve him well, as the Vikings travel overseas to Dublin to take on the Steelers this week. Mason is now the bonafide RB1, with Aaron Jones headed to the IR due to a hamstring injury. Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t been as stout as I expected they’d be, but they can certainly make plays and create turnovers. The Vikings should continue to lean on their run game and defense, and have Carson Wentz be a responsible game manager. Look for Mason to be featured all day.
The Vikings are playing the Steelers in Dublin, Ireland, and the Vikings No. 6 defense, which allows 271 yards per game, is facing the Steelers No. 30 offense that averages only 247 yards per game. Aaron Rodgers is apparently not the answer. Surprise, he’s old, and it's not going to end well, I have a feeling. Carson Wentz is a blessing for Minnesota despite JJ McCarthy being out. I think McCarthy could play if the team wanted him to, but they're making excuses to keep him out. Wentz is a lunch pail type of quarterback, and the Irish people are going to love him. The better defense wins. Vikings to cover.

B365 at -120. Jonnu Smith’s average depth of target this season is 0.8 yards (not a typo). He does have one long catch of 21 yards, but only two of his 13 total targets have traveled even 10 air yards. Check-down merchant Aaron Rodgers’ aDOT of 5.8 yards is the lowest amongst qualifiers this season, and the matchup does not bode well for downfield looks. The Vikings are allowing a 6.4 aDOT this season, which is the sixth lowest mark. And they rank second in FTN’s DVOA metric against the position, after an eighth place finish last season. Plus, Smith is clearly not 100%, as he’s questionable for the contest with a hip injury.
The Vikings were fortunate to roll out Carson Wentz last week against an awful Bengals defense. The Steelers have had trouble stopping the run but the Vikings rushing attack is not the same without Aaron Jones - and I am not expecting Carson Wentz to put two big games together in a row. He was also the beneficiary of turnovers last week, setting up a walk in the park for Minnesota. This will all be different. Travel, opponent, environment. I will take the points with the better quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers has struggled under pressure this season, and he should see a strong pass rush from Brian Flores' defense. Rodgers is 6 of 22 with one touchdown and two interceptions when pressured. The Steelers are extremely fortunate to be 2-1; they benefitted from five Patriots' turnovers last week. Minnesota gets Jordan Addison back, giving Carson Wentz an abundance of weapons.
There's an argument that the Vikings got better at the QB and RB position (Carson Wentz and Jordan Mason) last week when they stomped the Bengals. Now the Vikings get a neutral site game (Dublin, Ireland) against a Steelers team that should have lost to the Patriots last week. I have serious questions about how the Steelers will move the ball, and while I'm not the biggest Carson Wentz supporter, I am no longer intimidated by this Steelers defense. Jordan Addison will also be back for this game (note that I don't think McCarthy will be suiting up at QB).
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