The Chiefs are 0-2 and haven't looked particularly good through two weeks. The Giants have a nice young core and home field advantage here. In the end, this is a spot where I expect to see Kansas City's big-game experience show, with the Chiefs winning by a TD.

DraftKings. Nick Bolton is under this combined tackles and assists line in one of two games this season, and was under in 11/16 last year (averaging 6.6 per game). Despite the Giants offensive explosion last week (which was more about the Cowboys defense than the G-Men’s offense), I project this as a highly inefficient offense. Plus, it’s a low volume offense for both the running backs and tight-ends, which should limit Bolton’s tackle volume. The Giants allowed a below average 16 linebacker tackles per game last season, and have averaged the same in regulation so far this year. Bolton has registered 42% of linebacker tackles both this season and last. I’d bet it down to under 6.5 at +115 or better (for 0.5 units).

Whether the Chiefs have completely regressed or they’re victims of having played a couple legitimate contenders while down key weapons is a legitimate debate. What’s not is that the Giants are a poor defensive football team. It’s been covered that Patrick Mahomes had never started a season 0-2 until last week; do you believe he’ll start 0-3? His elusiveness should allow him to avoid New York’s long strength – pass rush – while Kansas City aims to get its run game going behind Isaiah Pacheco. If KC can get the run going to set up the pass, they should win by double digits in a bounce-back spot. With 7% of games falling on -6, I’ll pay up a bit for -5.5

The Giants' secondary gave up a slew of big plays in last week's shootout loss in Dallas. Enter Tyquan Thornton, who is Kansas City's designated deep threat. Xavier Worthy is inactive, clearing the way for Thornton to retain his go-routes. Thornton has cleared this prop total in each of the first two weeks, and seven of his nine targets this season were at least 18 yards downfield.

As mediocre as K.C.'s pass offense has been with WRs Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy idle, throw-first Coach Andy Reid must acknowledge that establishing the run is paramount against the league's poorest rush offense so far. Hunt splits time with Isiah Pacheco, but his prop numbers are considerably lower. Last season, Hunt averaged nearly double this amount (56 yards per game). He tailed off late but still averaged 16 carries. His modest numbers this season: 13 carries, 47 yards. If Reid can admit the aerial attack is ineffective and orders more handoffs by QB Patrick Mahomes, Hunt should hurdle this figure.

After setting a career high in passing yards against an atrocious Cowboys secondary last week, I’ll be contrarian and fade Russell Wilson’s passing yards total. The Chiefs defense looked a lot better in Week 2, and Kansas City DC Steve Spagnuolo has given Wilson issues in the past with his unique blitzing schemes. I expect the Chiefs to control this game, and keep the Giants defense on the field. A negative game script for the Giants could put this prop in jeopardy if Wilson is forced to go pass-happy, but I’m willing to back the Chiefs to get right in this one and play a complete game. Wilson went under this number in 7/12 games last season. KC brings him back to earth this week.

Kansas City have struggled to establish a run game through the first two weeks, but have a great opportunity do so against the Giants. New York is 31st in defensive DVOA, and is allowing the most rushing yards per game in the NFL. The best feature of this Giants defense is their pass rush, which can be neutralized with a successful ground attack. The 0-2 Chiefs have been playing in trailing game scripts, which limited Pacheco’s rush attempts. If the Chiefs take an early lead in this game, expect an increased workload for Pacheco.

For the first time in Patrick Mahomes career, the Chiefs have opened a season 0-2 SU. Mahomes leads his team with 123 rushing yards and they’re wide receivers are banged up. New York’s offensive line saw some progression from the week one to week two, allowing Russell Wilson to have one of the best offensive games of his career. In terms of passing and rushing efficiency, on both sides of the ball, the Giants and Kansas City are almost identical. The Giants have the talent, kind of, to be competitive enough for a possible backdoor.

DraftKings. I love Week 3 as a buy-low spot for Isiah Pacheco and the Chiefs rushing offense as a whole. After two games, in mostly negative gamescripts against stout run defenses, the Chiefs take on the 0-2 Giants and their bottom-barrel defense against the ground game (32nd in run defense DVOA, per FTN Fantasy). The Chiefs have only run 18 offensive plays when tied or winning this season, so their low rush running back rush totals (14.5 carries per game) are due to improve. Pacheco will split with Kareem Hunt, but I expect the Rutgers alum to get the first crack at re-establishing the run. I have Pacheco pegged for 12 attempts, and would bet this at over 10.5 at +100 or better (for 0.75u).

The Chiefs have had to play two Super Bowl contenders in their first two games, so maybe we should cut them some slack. But it's hard to see how a team with issues moving the ball should be favored by this much on the road against anyone right now. The Giants offense came alive after a poor debut by Russell Wilson, which gives me more confidence they can backdoor cover here if needed. That's assuming the Chiefs offense can figure things out enough to stake themselves to a big lead, which I don't see with Hollywood Brown serving as the team's No. 1 receiver. My ratings make this Chiefs -5 but I'd probably play the Giants down to +4.