I want to be on a Jordan Love prop today in this matchup, as I think he could have trouble dealing with the pressure the Browns bring even with Zach Tom back at tackle. This is the best way in for me with a Packers offense down multiple receivers. It feels like Love is going to have to have enough confidence to hold the ball and then have proper timing with Matthew Golden in order for this to get over, and I'll fade everything aligning perfectly for it to happen.

The Packers bring the league’s most dominant defense on the road against a Browns team that has struggled massively with Joe Flacco looking every bit a 40-year-old. While this is a significant number against a capable team -- and Green Bay is down multiple pass catchers -- it does have Tucker Kraft, the RT is active and Matthew Golden looks to be getting more comfortable. The Packers have run through a couple playoff-caliber teams, and that’s with Micah Parsons still getting adjusted. Prefer this at -7, which can be bought for -115 (or better). It might even be available if you wait closer to kickoff. Will also use Green Bay as a Wong teaser leg.

This is a big number to lay for a road team in the NFL, but we're talking about teams moving in opposite directions here. Green Bay has been arguably the best team in the NFL this season, and Cleveland is a mess. The difference for me here is the dominance of the Packers defense. I like Green Bay to go into Cleveland and win by 10+.

The Cleveland Browns own perhaps the league's best defense. Too bad for them that the offense might be the worst. Still, we'll take a team with a rugged D receiving more than a touchdown. Not only is the Browns' pass rush elite, they have yielded a league-low 92 rushing yards. The defense's task has softened with premier WR Jayden Reed out following surgery. If the Browns' O-line can keep Micah Parsons away from immobile QB Joe Flacco, Cleveland should keep this close.

Browns rookie linebacker Carson Schwesinger hasn't racked up a ton of tackles yet, but this should be his best game. The second-rounder should benefit from a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs. In the Packers' first two games, the opposing middle linebacker registered 10 and 11 tackles respectively. Look for Schwesinger to be very active Sunday.

FanDuel. With the Packers down Jayden Reed and Christian Watson, and Tucker Kraft questionable, the deep group of pass catchers is suddenly a bit lean. Enter Dontayvion Wicks, who figures to assume the WR2 role opposite Romeo Doubs. With Reed departing early, Wicks cleared this line last week with 44 receiving yards on six targets. And this is an excellent matchup for Wicks to see target volume. The Browns deploy man coverage at the highest rate, and that’s where Wicks thrives. The third-year receiver drew a 37% target rate last season against man, and has already been targeted on five of twelve routes against the scheme this season. I have Wicks projected at 45 receiving yards, and would bet this line up to over 40.5.

Josh Jacobs is proven he’s one of the league’s true workhorses however he’s largely struggled from an efficiency standpoint. He gets a tough draw against what has been the NFL’s top rush defense through two weeks in the Browns, fresh off of holding the great Derrick Henry to 2.0 YPC. Cleveland’s run defense ranks 1st in Defensive Rushing DVOA, 1st in Defensive Run Grade, 3rd in Run Stop Win Rate, and 8th in EPA allowed per rush. Meanwhile the best thing we can say is Josh Jacobs has been on the field a lot (which is certainly important), however his advanced metrics are ugly as he ranks just 26th in Breakaway Yards per game and 33rd in Elusive Rating.

With an aging Joe Flacco at QB for the Browns, it makes it tough to envision him being able to play above the X's and O's in a matchup vs arguably the best team in the NFL. Green Bay offensively is diverse enough to divvy up the targets in the passing game, while also being able to sprinkle in a consistent run game into the mix as well.

We've got a good opportunity for a ladder play here as Matthew Golden may be on the verge of taking off. We haven't seen much from Golden as he only has two receptions on the year, but now that Jayden Reed is out he should see more looks from Jordan Love. His route participation went up quite a bit last week and Love missed him on a couple of deep shots. I think we see him a lot more active from a production standpoint this week especially considering that the path to attack the Browns is through the pass and the Browns utilizatiion of man coverage should allow Love to take some deep shots to Golden.

Green Bay has looked marvelous, but this is the first road game of the season and Jordan Love is missing two of his top wideouts. RB Josh Jacobs is questionable, but I'm sure he plays. Cleveland ranks No. 1 in total defense and largely shut down Baltimore last week (242 total yards) despite allowing 41 points. The Ravens did get a defensive TD; if the Packers don't score one of those or on special teams, I feel pretty solid since we are above the magic number of 24 + one point. The Browns have allowed 24 or fewer points in four straight home games.

Betting models and analytics caution against overvaluing early week blowouts as lines often inflate after public overreaction. In fact, advanced simulations give the Browns a strong chance to cover, estimating they cover +8.5 in roughly 69% of game simulations. The Packers may score early, but conservative play calls and the Browns' ability to slow the game could keep this game within 8 points. Green Bay is coming off a big win and they have key injuries on their offensive line and at receiver. I made the game Cleveland +7.

This looks like a matchup of one of the NFL's best teams against one of its worst, but this is a great spot for Cleveland. The Packers dominated an NFC rival on national TV and had a minibye to dream about the Super Bowl. Will they have the same intensity for an AFC pushover on the road? The Cleveland defense only gave up 83 net yards on seven first half drives against Baltimore before turnovers changed the game, while the offense has a number of weapons when accounting for rookies Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin. This feels like a low scoring game that's closer than people expect.