The Bears are the desperate home team, but it's the Cowboys who have looked more competent through two games. Dak Prescott should have a monster day against the terrible Chicago defense. Caleb Williams did a lot of his damage last week in garbage time, and I trust Prescott more in the clutch.

Confidence in both teams is down from the offseason, particularly for the Bears, which were expected to explode behind Ben Johnson’s brilliant offense and a bevy of talented playmakers. Chicago lost 52-21 to Detroit last week, and Caleb Williams looks like anything but a competent NFL QB. While the Cowboys’ rough defense could turn his fortunes, that’s tough to buy considering he struggles to see the field. Dak Prescott is the better QB int his game – by far – and Dallas has enough weapons to match. Plus, this is a revenge game for new defensive boss Matt Eberflus, who made his bones as a coordinator. Dallas deserves to be favored on the road, and it should win. (It also has a huge kicker edge.)

Dak has been looking to take plenty of deep shots this season and I think that gets amplified against a Bears team that has key injuries in the secondary, plays a lot of man coverage and creates very little pressure on the quarterback. Dak has the highest passing yards projection among all quarterbacks this week and is slated to have 23+ completions. At least one of those goes 38 or longer to cash this bet.

Caleb Williams has not been shy to use his legs and scramble to pick up chunk gains to open the season. Through two games, he's run 11 times for 85 yards. The Cowboys' defense has given up 78 scramble yards through two weeks. Especially in a competitive game environment, this sets up for Williams to take advantage and use his legs. I like this line and have bet it at 30+ rushing yards too.

While I already wrote up Rome Odunze for an Anytime Touchdown on the other side of this game, I like the WR1 for the Cowboys to find the endzone this week, too. As I mentioned with Odunze, this is a potential shootout with a high total and close spread, so we expect and hope to see plenty of touchdowns. The Bears' matchup is pristine for Lamb, as they have been very friendly to wide receivers and will be without their star CB Jaylon Johnson. Lamb has yet to find the endzone in the first two games this season. With 28.8% target rate and a 44.5% air yards share, I think Lamb finds the endzone Sunday with a great matchup.

Rome Odunze has three touchdowns in the first two weeks of the NFL season and appears to be QB Caleb Williams' #1 target. Odunze has 29.9% of the target share and 47% of the air yards share for the Bears through two games. The Cowboys will be without CB Daron Bland, and the rest of the Cowboys' secondary has been friendly to wide receivers to open the season. This game looks to be a potential shootout with a high total and close spread. I like the plus odds for Odunze to find the endzone again this week.

The 0-2 Bears will be without perhaps their three best defensive players in CB Jaylon Johnson, CB Kyler Gordon & LB T.J Edwards. Chicago were missing this key combo of players in their MNF home opener against the Vikings, which allowed J.J McCarthy to lead Minnesota to an unlikely comeback win. The Cowboys defense was lit up last week by Russell Wilson and the Giants, and may continue to struggle without their best CB DaRon Bland. On the ground, Dallas seems to have finally found a running game with new RB Javonte Williams, while Bears starting RB D’Andre Swift is currently ‘questionable’ to play. This may very well turn into a shootout, so I’ll back Dallas to put more points on the board.

I don't love betting odds this heavy, so please shop around for the best line on this. But Odunze's been wonderful this year and the Bears have leaned on him: at least nine targets and six receptions in each of two games this year. I don't see a game script that puts Chicago with a big lead and a lot of handoffs, so expect to see Caleb Williams throw a lot. And I don't see a Cowboys pass defense that can slow any WRs down -- just look at the Giants this week. Odunze should be good for five grabs ... if not eight.

The Bears defense is coming off an awful game against the Lions where Jared Goff threw five touchdowns, and they now have to move forward without injured star Jaylon Johnson at cornerback. Only three players have seen more red zone targets than Pickens' four this year, with Amon-Ra St. Brown leading the league after facing Chicago last week. No other Cowboy has more than one red zone target. With Pickens having Prescott's eye when it counts, I see having a much likelier chance to score than these odds imply.

If you follow me, you know that anytime I get a good opportunity to fade Caleb Williams and the Bears, I take it. This is one of those opportunities with a Dallas team that is better than people think. Both of these defenses have been pretty bad, but it's the Bears defense that I worry about more, particularly with their injuries across the secondary. On offense, I trust Dak Prescott over four quarters much more than Caleb and I think it's the QB play that will end up being the difference. It's notable that the Cowboys rush game has been relatively efficient making them more two-dimensional than the Bears. No issue backing the road team here.

Caleb Williams has been more efficient when facing zone defenses over man coverage. The Cowboys play zone with new DC Matt Eberflus (yes, that former Bears HC), which doesn't match up with their personnel. Matt Eberflus revenge game? No. Rome Odunze has become a matchup nightmare, scoring three touchdowns in two games. His target share of 29.9% ranks 12th, and his 60% target share in the red zone is tied for second place. This is a solid price to take with a total of 51 points.