This line has come up significantly since open, but outside of coordinators, this is not that different from the Lions team that looked to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender last year. The Packers are clearly going to be a problem this year, and while the Bears were solid early against the Vikings, it’s obvious Caleb Wiliams is not all the way there yet – just look at his footwork in the pocket. Even if it’s close for a large portion of the game, it’s tough to trust Chicago putting it all together in the second half against a team this talented. Wish I got this at a better number under a touchdown, but it’s still worth playing without the hook.

Even when the Lions were flying high the past couple of years, this wasn't an easy matchup vs. the Bears. Now, however, things look different for Detroit, with warning signs all offseason that adjustments were coming following the departures of coordinators Ben Johnson (to these Bears) and Aaron Glenn (to the Jets) as head coaches. Jared Goff's performances in Detroit have been closely linked to Johnson, too; without him as OC prior to his move to the Bears, and last week vs. the Packers, Goff's success rate has been minimal We aren't yet on any Chicago bandwagon and have lingering doubts about Caleb Williams and his maturity, but evidence is suggesting the Lions are in for a much tougher slog this season. Play Bears

The Chicago Bears collapsed in a prime time spot on Monday, and now have to show resolve in a six day turn around against the Lions. Close game losses typically resulted in blowouts last season for the Bears in the following game. Look for the culture change under Ben Johnson to have an impact at least in terms of the spread. Chicago has had short term success against the Lions as well, in three out of the last four matchups they have either won or lost by five points or fewer. Grab the points here.

David Montgomery scored 12 rushing touchdowns in just 14 regular-season games last season. His week 1 matchup against the Packers was extremely difficult, so we shouldn't read too much into that. Montgomery has a much better matchup against the Bears this week. And the Lions have a healthy implied team total of 26.5. If the Lions come close or exceed their team total, Montgomery should be able to find the endzone.

The Lions entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations, and went on to lay an egg in Week 1. I fully expect to see a motivated effort from Detroit on Sunday. Chicago should be a better team under Ben Johnson eventually, but their offensive line is going to have major issues against Detroit. I like the Lions by 10+ here.

D'Andre Swift should count his lucky stars that there isn't much depth in the Bears backfield meaning he gets touches by default. Swift wasn't particularly efficient or explosive in the season opener instead accumulating stats purely through touches finishing with a 6% missed tackle rate and 1.71 yards after contact per attempt. That avenue may be there this week but this Lions run defense, when healthy, is one tough nut to crack so while it's tough knowing he'll get touches it may take 18 carries to beat us.

The Lions will be playing angry on Sunday, with everyone questioning their offense and their ability to block in the run game. David Montgomery is the heart and soul of this offensive unit and after a very bad day against a very good Packers defense (11 carries, 25 yards), I think he comes out fired up against a Bears defense that gave up over 4.5 per tote to Jordan Mason on Sunday. He's the goal line back and this price is too cheap for his role in what will once again be considered a good offense come Monday.

Before the season started, I thought Jahmyr Gibbs would get more carries per game than David Montgomery, but in Week 1 Montgomery outrushed him 11 to 9. While I like Jared Goff and the passing game to have success and help build a big lead vs. Chicago in the first 2.5 quarters, we should hopefully see Montgomery feast in the last quarter and a half. He averaged 12.7 per game last season and that's what the model projects. He has gone Over 10.5 carries in 12 of his last 17 games and in nearly 80% of games in his career.

DraftKings. This is a very low rush attempts line for David Montgomery, who had 11 totes in Week 1, despite the trailing gamescript for the Lions virtually all game. I do expect an overall bounceback for the Lions at home in Week 2, against a Bears run defense that ranked 20th in DVOA in Week 1, after ranking 31st in 2024 (per FTN).

The Bears pass defense looked good until J.J. McCarthy started figuring things out. Last season, Detroit got lucky in its first matchup on Thanksgiving where Chicago looked like it would at least tie the game in regulation. Chicago held Goff to just 221 passing yards. A few weeks later, the Lions showed the Bears who was boss with a 17-point win and where Goff had 336 passing yards. An angry Detroit team looking to show their former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson they can still be a league-leading offense without him will help Goff top this line. Goff was 11-7 on Overs on this line last season and the Lions averaged 55 more passing yards at home (280) than on the road.

Considering Jahmyr Gibbs tied for the lead league in rushing touchdowns a year ago with 16 would lead you to believe he ia at least -200 like Derrick Henry. But Detroit was shut down in Week 1 and Gibbs had just 19 rushing yards on 9 carries. But he did have 10 targets and 10 receptions. While he only had 31 receiving yards, the volume he got as a receiver when facing a tough defense makes me that much more confident that he's in for 20 touches. The defensive matchup of the Bears at home is a heck of a lot easier than the Packers on the road. Gibbs has scored a rushing touchdown in 68% of his home games over his career.

Monday night told us a lot about these two teams ... maybe... the Lions' offense was the object of everyone's derision before kickoff Monday and after one drive for the Bears, it looked like Ben Johnson's departure might truly be a big problem. Maybe it's still a downgrade for Detroit, but this line is on the move and I want a piece before it sniffs seven. The Bears offensive line is awful and Johnson's offense was extremely uninspiring after that opening scripted session. The Lions have heard all offseason they're toast without their former coordinator and I bet they go foot to gas and then put it on Chicago's throat.

I was able to give this out at 4.5 on The Early Edge (apologies for not getting it up on the site and I'll make sure I get the play in beforehand next time). I think this is very much a get right spot for a Lions team that wasn't that bad at Green Bay last week. Lions were solid on offense but stumbled in the redzone and I think the Lions defense gets a nice reprieve facing Caleb Williams. I don't think the Bears are going to score many points in this one as Caleb Williams is simply not ready to properly run the Ben Johnson offense.