Waited for this to fall under the key number, and that has now paid off. The Bills being without Ed Oliver is certainly an issue, but as we saw last week, the Jets defense looks to be a sieve. Buffalo scored 60 points in two meetings against New York last season, and while its defense is significantly concerning, the Jets are not the Ravens in terms of quarterback play or overall scheme. Just don’t see how Justin Fields will be able to keep it close through the air with consistency. This may be close for most of the game, but the Bills pull it out and cover a touchdown in the end.

Yes, the Jets’ defense was slapped around by Old Man Rodgers in the defeat to Pittsburgh. But how about the offense, piling up 32 points and just shy of 400 yards? In fact, New York’s defense was hardly awful, having allowing a modest 271 yards. The Bills masterfully pulled a win out of their helmet over the Ravens, but their defense got spun around silly. It entered the game in less than optimum health, and DT Ed Oliver, the team’s lone defensive standout in the shootout, hurt his ankle in practice and is a scratch. If the Jets can come close to reprising their rushing output (39 carries, 182 yards), they could keep Josh Allen on the sideline and cover.

DraftKings. While Keon Coleman was one of the darlings of Week 1, I’m less bullish on him repeating his strong performance in Week 2. Under new head coach Aaron Glenn, the Jets unveiled a new look defense consisting of man coverage at a top five rate. Additionally, All Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner traveled with Steeers receiver DK Metcalf when he lined up outside. Coleman, who runs more than 90% of his routes from an outside position, should be in line for most of Sauce’s coverage this week. Notably, Josh Allen only targeted his receiver in Gardner’s coverage once last season, with no completions.

There are four things here for me in this game that has me liking the Jets plus the points. 1. How does Buffalo possibly come into this game with a full tank of energy and emotion after last week's incredibly exhausting and satisfying, remarkable come-from-behind victory? 2. The Jets and Justin Fields looked the best last week as we have seen in the last few years. They rushed the ball on the Steeler defense for over 180 yards and only allowed 50+ yards rushing on defense. 3. Ed Oliver, a hero in last Sunday night's game, is out with an ankle injury. 4. The Bills go from home underdog that won outright, into the role of road favorite. That is typically a losing recipe ATS.

The Jets are better this season, but they simply don't matchup well with this Bills team. Josh Allen is Josh Allen, and James Cook is one of the better RBs in the league. What this comes down to for me is a lack of faith in the Jets' offense. I can't envision a scenario where Justin Fields is able to successfully trade blows with Allen. Buffalo by a TD here.

The Jets offense looked incredible in Week 1, but one player who disappointed was Allen with only 9 yards on six carries. That gives us a buying opportunity in a game where Buffalo won't have Ed Oliver, who was PFF's top graded interior lineman in Week 1. The Bills gave up 169 rushing yards to Derrick Henry, and while Allen certainly isn't in that class, we're only asking for 19 rushing yards here. Allen could break one and hit this number, but I expect he'll see enough work to get us over the line anyway.

The Bills will be without a key part of a defense that struggled last week, but I'm going to fade the big line move from the -8.5 lookahead number anyway. The Jets also have injuries to worry about with Sauce Gardner and Josh Reynolds joining the injury report Thursday, and I don't see how they have the weapons to keep up with the Bills offense if New York's defense is as poor as it was last week against Aaron Rodgers. I remain high on the Jets long-term, but this line should probably be Bills -7.

I was highly encouraged by Justin Fields Week 1 performance where he received high marks in EPA, DVOA, Success Rate, and 1st Read EPA. Fields only attempted 22 passes however the Jets played from ahead the majority of the game which is unlikely to be the case this week as the visiting Bills are 6.5 point favorites. Speaking of Buffalo, their pass defense ranked dead last in DVOA, EPA per Dropback, in addition to grading poorly in numerous over defensive passing metrics. Considering Fields is likely to see an increase in passing volume due to negative gamescript, I was surprised to see this passing prop south of just 200 yards.

I suppose the worry is that the Bills build a huge lead and eliminate Hall's carries from the Jets call sheet. I don't think that's a certainty -- the Bills defense as a whole really isn't that dominant. The Jets offensive line looked amazing last week against the Steelers and figures to be just as good against the Bills. And even in a close competitive game in Week 1, Hall had 19 carries. I'm only going to go with 0.25 units because lines like this sometimes are just too good to be true, but Hall should be counted on for at least 14 rushes from the Jets' run-heavy offensive brain trust.

I loved what I saw from Breece Hall in Week 1. He benefited from the defensive "gravity" that Justin Fields, as a running threat, provides while also keeping the workhorse RB role (19 rushes) over Braelon Allen (six rushes). Allen ran for a TD so maybe he gets the lion's share of goal line carries, which is why Hall ATD isn't as good a bet in my opinion. With a career 92 rushing + receiving yard average (22-19 over 78.5) and a projection for 90 here, there is 11 yards of wiggle room.

In this game, the matchup is very similar to what the Bills faced last week vs the Baltimore Ravens. A mobile QB with a dynamic run game. Defensively, the same aggressive mantra is there like the Ravens as well. One could surmmize that the Bills will be better prepared, but you can also say that the Jets will be also, considering how well they played last week vs Pittsburgh.