Look, games are played on the field not in the sportsbook but I'd be lying if I said the Giants getting trendy in this spot was rather surprising. However I can't resist taking the 6 here with the better defense leaning into a great defensive front. Washington doesn't have their projected starting 5 along the OL, they're shuffling pieces in the backfield, and they're dealing with some uncertainty at receiver. In what could be a lower scoring defensive minded game between familiar foes I can't pass up the generous points in Russel WIlson's NYG debut.

While I’m not too hopeful that my Giants can turn it around this season, I do think they will be competitive in this game. The Commanders will trot out several new pieces on offense, including a new LT & RT on their O-line. QB Jayden Daniels could have his hands full against this vaunted Giants defensive line, that added yet another promising pass-rusher in rookie LB Abdul Carter. New York also bolstered their secondary by adding CB Paulson Adeebo and FS Jevon Holland. If Giants new QB Russell Wilson can be a responsible game manager, New York can cover this wide spread against Washington, who they played within this margin of 6.5 in both of their matchups last season.

Wandale Robinson became a high volume option in the check down offense spearheaded by Daniel Jones last season. Things will look different this year as the Giants will try and stretch the field a bit more but may not throw to all 3 levels the same way with Russ at the helm. I just can't get to this prop number early in the season for Wan'Dale.

B365 at -115. Jayden Daniels cleared this rush attempts line in half of his 16 full games last season, including three of five before a lower body injury curtailed his running midseason. Fully healthy coming into Week 1, I expect the Commanders quarterback to be on the move. The Giants adding Abdul Carter through the draft gives them a potent pass rush - Daniels scrambled on 25% of his pressured dropbacks last season, by far the most amongst qualified quarterbacks. And I expect the Commanders to utilize run-pass options to neutralize the pressure off the edge. Throw in the potential for some kneel downs, and I have Daniels projected at ten attempts.

We see the Commanders as prime regression candidates and, although they should still be a winning and exciting team, this play is more about belief in the Giants taking a step forward. They should have one of the NFL's top defensive lines and an offense that should be much more productive behind an overhauled QB room.

We have seen two divisional underdogs start the season off with covers. Washington as sizeable favorites will see a different level New York Giants team. Still, I anticipate the Commanders playing at the Giants level for the first half, before making the key plays to get past the number. The NFL is always outlier plays, and we saw this last year with Malik Nabers dropping a key fourth down ball, and an abundance of costly plays. Take the Commanders on the spread.

Malik Nabers saw 37% of the Giants' targets last season. With a similar receiving core, he should see a very lofty target share again this season. Now he has an upgrade at quarterback with Russell Wilson. Could Wilson connect to Nabers with his beautiful moon ball? The spread suggests the Giants will likely be in a negative game script, and Nabers should command plenty of targets and air yards Sunday. I like Nabers to sail past this line.

Veteran Darius Slayton signed a three-year, $36 million contract with the Giants in the offseason, including $22 million guaranteed. He'll remain an important part of this offense even with Malik Nabers drawing a massive target share. Slayton caught three passes in each of the meetings with Washington last season. This line has moved to 2.5 at some books, and I would still play it over at big plus money for half a unit.

Bet365 @ -115. Running back a popular bet for me from the 2024 season. Zach Ertz remained under this line in ten of 17 games, with a modest average depth of target of 8.0 yards. Despite his career renaissance in 2024, I do expect the 5.4 targets per game to come down a tick for the 34-year old, with Deebo Samuel now with the team. Plus, this is a tough matchup on paper, as the Giants defended the position well last season. The G-Men allowed the second fewest receiving yards and receptions to opposing tight ends, on the second lowest target rate. Eleven of seventeen starting tight-ends were under this line.

I thought Austin Ekeler was washed after his last season with the Chargers but Kliff Kingsbury relied on him heavily down the stretch when Washington was at it's best. They traded Brian Robinson and stuck with two unproven young RBs. For week 1, expect Ekeler to be in the role he was in all of last season at the very least when he averaged over 60 total yards and went 11-4 over this number.

The contract dispute is in the past. Jayden Daniels is projected for 2 passing TDs and Terry McLaurin accounts for 42% of his team rec TDs. His 0.76 TDs per sim implies over 60%, so we'd set the line at closer to -160. He had a TD in 12 of 20 games last season (60%). He had 2 TDs vs the Giants last season. All the numbers indicate at least a 50% chance he scores and we're getting solid +$$$.

The Commanders welcomed Terry McLaurin back into the offense after working out a new deal, but I wonder how ready he'll be to make a major impact in Week 1. This is a sneaky tough matchup with the Giants 16th in points per drive last year before adding Abdul Carter, Paulson Adebo and Jevon Holland. I'm looking to attack some Unders with offenses that potentially could need to find a rhythm, and this is a fit as one of the higher team totals on the board.

The Commanders won last year's meetings by three and five points. I'm not sure Washington is better this season, but I know the G-Men are. Their defensive front featuring Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, a healthy Kayvon Thibodeaux and rookie Abdul Carter will cause problems for Jayden Daniels, who likely won't convert 20 of 23 fourth downs like he did last season. He'll face an improved secondary that includes Paulson Adebo and Jevon Holland. Russell Wilson played one of his best games vs. the Commanders last season, tossing three touchdowns against one INT in a 28-27 Steelers' win. In the Giants' last seven visits to Washington, a three-point loss is their worst result. Look for a tight divisional opener.

The consensus spread has moved from Washington -7.5 to -6.5 because Terry McClaurin is holding out / holding in and the Giants always have New York fueled optimism this time of the year skewing betting action towards NY. I believe they can figure this situation out and when they do the line could go back to -7 or even -7.5 and I don't want to lose that crucial hook. The model is confident in Washington and while the odds project a score of WAS 26, NY 19.5 our model has it at WAS 32.5, NY 19. So the value is 95% coming from Washington's ability to score over 26 points. And even if McClaurin isn't there he's not worth more than 5 points.

In the second game of last season, the Giants' defense forced seven field goals against the Commanders and lost 21-18. With the addition of Russell Wilson and his ability to elevate the passing game, New York's running game will be more effective. And when you combine a functional offense with what looks to be a tremendous defensive front, I expect this game to be close. The Giants' improvement at safety with Jevon Holland and second-year player Tyler Nubin will prove critical against this Jayden Daniels-led attack.