It’s quite possible the Lions will regress this season having lost both coordinators and retooling along the offensive line, but there is still a massive talent differential between these teams on the offensive side of the ball – particularly when it comes to the wide receivers. The Packers will be frequently backed in 2025 because they have a lot to offer, but Detroit getting points against a team it has dominated recently (6-1) is tough not to buy. Micah Parsons is a huge difference maker or Green Bay but not enough to jump the line the way his acquisition did.

Not only are the Lions replacing both coordinators, but their offensive line must replace a couple stalwarts. That should come into play against a Packers' defense that now features Micah Parsons rushing opposite Rashan Gary on passing downs. Detroit has dominated this series recently, winning six of the past seven meetings, but it's a new season. Look for rookie speedster Matthew Golden to make an immediate impact as Green Bay wins.

We simply like the better team getting points in this one and aren't necessarily buying the narrative that the Lions are regression candidates and that the Micah Parsons acquisition makes the Packers the NFC North favorites.

Detroit enters this season with new offensive and defensive coordinators after losing Ben Johnson & Aaron Glen in the offseason. New playbooks & the Packers surprise addition of star LB Micah Parsons makes this a tough road start in Week 1 for Jared Goff. Green Bay will be looking for revenge after losing two close games to their division rivals last season, and this first matchup seems like a great spot to do just that. Under Matt Lafleur, the Packers are 15-6 ATS in the month of September, and 7-0 ATS at home in Lambeau field during the first three games of the season. His Packers are tough to beat early on, and I like them to win their home opener.

This line jumped to Packers -2.5 on the Micah Parsons news. I expect he'll play but I don't feel he will be 100% in game shape and I wouldn't be surprised if this line closed back at 1.5. The hype surrounding this move has me feeling there is value on the seemingly now forgotten Lions. Detroit has two new coordinators but this is also an extremely familiar opponent. The Lions own the better running game and should be able to out rush Green Bay. Finally, the Packers have a Thursday Night game vs Washington on deck. Since 2012, home teams on Thursday Night in Week 2 are 3-8-1 ATS in Week 1. TNF on deck can be a distraction this early in the season.

We’re buying low on Sam LaPorta who had a disappointing sophomore campaign after an extremely encouraging rookie season. While it is not uncommon for players that exceed expectations in their rookie years to decline statistically their following season, LaPorta dealt with numerous injuries that bothered him until late in the season. LaPorta looked a lot more like the dominant rookie that set the league on fire in the final 5 weeks of the 24 season and has eclipsed this line in six consecutive games including the playoffs. He’ll face a GB defense that was generous to TEs last season. This game has some sneaky shootout potential as well. Would play this line to 42.5.

FanDuel. In a breakout third season (his first as a starter), Jameson Williams averaged 67 receiving yards per game, clearing this line in 10 of 15 contests. I’m expecting another leap from the Alabama alum in year four, especially with the Lions skill position players remaining largely unchanged. Williams will face off against a Packers team that has a lot of questions at cornerback coming into the season, with both Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes departing in the offseason. In what profiles as a shootout against the Packers, I’d bet this line up to over 55.5 receiving yards.

Why are the Lions getting points at Green Bay in Week 1 when Detroit is 3.5 points better on a neutral field? Detroit swept the season series last year and has won six of the past seven meetings. I think this is an overreaction to how Detroit's season ended, that humbling home playoff loss, and the departures of both coordinators. Detroit is still the better team and will show it in Week 1.