There’s a misunderstanding that the Ravens win makes this unimportant for the Steelers; playing at Baltimore or at Houston are drastically different playoff paths. Pittsburgh won by a TD back on Dec. 1 with Russell Wilson tearing apart Cincinnati’s awful defense, but it’s lost three straight with Russ looking rough since. Dropping four in a row entering the postseason is anti-momentum. No wonder Mike Tomlin is playing his guys. Why back the Bengals? Not having Chase Brown gave major pause; he unlocked the potential of Cincinnati’s offense. But there are zero questions about the Bengals’ motivation, the defense may be making moderate improvements, and Joe Burrow is carving up opponents weekly. Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS as road favorites this season with four straight covers overall.

Mike Gesicki caught five passes for 53 yards in the first matchup and should be busy again Saturday. It’s all about how the Steelers play defense and their affinity for single-high safety looks. I would play this up to 33.5.

If the Ravens, who are 20-point favorites, beat the Browns, the Steelers will be eliminated from NFC North contention. If that happens, I expect Mike Tomlin to turn his focus to getting guys healthy and rested for the playoffs. The Steelers could still play this game out in hopes of landing the AFC's No. 5 seed. Nonetheless, Cinncy is simply the better team right now. Joe Burrow is outstanding in big games, and the pressure is on the Bengals to win. This is a spot where I see the Bengals winning by 7+.

Caesar’s. Jaylen Warren has cleared this line in 7 of his last 8 games, with the lone miss being in a very tough matchup against the Eagles. The Bengals rank 27th in run defense DVOA, and 30th against RBs in the passing game (per FTN Fantasy). While I expect the Ravens to win their game and clinch the AFC North, I also expect a Mike Tomlin coached team to play to win this game regardless. It would behoove the Steelers to win to keep the five seed (to matchup against the Texans as opposed to Baltimore). Bet to o67.5.

The Pittsburgh Steelers continue reeling with three straight losses and are one game behind the Ravens after leading the division. It's an epic late-season fail and I don't know if the Steelers can turn it around against the Bengals who have won four straight and need to win to advance to the playoffs. The Steelers beat the Bengals 44-38 in Cincinnati on December 1st and Russell Wilson was phenomenal with 414 yards. But Wilson has struggled the last 3 weeks and a lot of the losses are his fault. Of the Bengals eight victories on the season the first one against a winning team happened last week against the Broncos. I took the Bengals to win. One team is playing well one team isn't.

Bengals linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither wore the green dot last week and played every defensive snap, while Germaine Pratt played 83 percent of the snaps. Each linebacker made 13 tackles in the first meeting with Pittsburgh. With Pratt lined at 8.5, I prefer Davis-Gaither even at the expensive juice. The Steelers should mount extended drives, leading to more opportunities.

I’m not quite sure why oddsmakers have Harris’ rushing yards line set so low. Perhaps there is an assumption that the Ravens win earlier in the day to secure the AFC North title, leading to Pittsburgh resting its starters. I don’t see that happening for a Mike Tomlin-coached team that will still be playing for playoff seeding. The Bengals run defense has struggled all season long, specifically with RB’s that attack the edges. Harris rushed for 75 yards in Week 13 against Cincy, and chewed them up with outside zone run schemes. If the Steelers keep their foot on the gas and play this game competitively, Harris should clear this total easily.

Najee Harris has gained 75, 78, 99 and 90 rushing yards in his last four games against Cincinnati. The Steelers have played Top-10 rushing defenses the past three games (Philly, Baltimore, K.C.). Now they face a Bengals defense that ranks 29th in rushing success rate allowed since Week 11, when linebacker Logan Wilson and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins got hurt. The forecast calls for snow and temperatures in the low 20s. That could lead to a few more rush attempts than normal.

Pittsburgh needs this one badly on Saturday night to likely avoid a trip to Baltimore in the AFC playoffs next weekend. Pat Freiermuth caught six passes for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals in Week 13 and I expect him to be a focal point of the Steelers' offense once again in Week 18. The Bengals have allowed 13 tight ends to catch more than 35 yards of passes this season.

Russell Wilson is only going to run it so much and leans heavily into the horizontal passing game and check downs. With downfield options drying up, the checkdown game is in high gear. Warren has 5 catches in 2 straight games and has 4 in the first meeting with the Bengals and they will throw behind Trey Hendrickson's pass rush quite a bit. Warren is on the field a ton lately, getting almost twice the snap count as Najee Harris the last 3 weeks. He's one of the few things Wilson can trust in this offense right now.

Not much is trending up for the Steelers offense, but Warren is. With deep stuff going away, they can't get the ball in this dynamic back's hands enough and he has 40+ receiving yards in two straight and is over this in 4 of the last 5 and 6 of the last 8. He has 46 more snaps than Najee Harris the last 3 games, and if he's on the field that much Russell Wilson is going to dump it off to him quite a bit. Real problem in space. Had 4 catches for 55 yards in the first meeting with the Bengals.

Damn right we are riding this til the end. Burrow has hit in 8 straight games, and forecast looks good enough; maybe a little snow which Burrow can handle. Bengals will go down throwing ball all over the place. Burrow has 9 TD passes in his last 3 games vs the Steelers. Chase Brown injury means probably even more throwing here. Steelers secondary in tatters, finger pointing going on and have allowed 90 points in last 3 games. Bengals might hang 35 on them here.

The Bengals were three-point favorites in the first meeting between these teams in Cincy, a game Pittsburgh won by racking up a season-best 520 yards of offense. Cincinnati has won four straight since that game while playing a run of questionable offenses, and I'm not convinced the Bengals defense will fare much better here with the Steelers having George Pickens back on the field. This line seems to be accounting for Pittsburgh being shut out of the AFC North title with an assumed Ravens win earlier in the day, but it's critical for them to win here and lock in a matchup with the Texans in the wild-card round, so I think we get full effort regardless of the Ravens outcome. Wrong team favored.

These are already pretty juiced. Mike Tomlin needs to rest some people here, and even if he doesn't this is a bad time to be facing this wagon. Bengals D is making strides and offense keeps rolling up 30/G (32.25 PPG over last 8 games). Joe Burrow kills this PIT D and Bengals have their season on the line. CIN 7-1 ATS on road, Joey B has covered 6 of last 9 AFCN road games and CIN is NFL-best 23-10 ATS on road since '21. PIT has allowed 90 points last 3 games, while scoring 40. CIN 6-2 ATS last 8; PIT 2-4 ATS last 6.