Mike Tomlin is great as an underdog, and the Steelers have been tremendous winning games in tough situations. This just does not set up well. The Eagles OL is capable of opening tough holes for Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts, and some around the team feel like a breakout game is coming for A.J. Brown. The Steelers will be without George Pickens against a Vic Fangio defense capable of limiting Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. It’s hard to imagine Pittsburgh’s defense (without DeShon Elliott) holding up all game if the injured offense is unable to keep it off the field. This is not a spot where I'd normally pick against the Steelers beyond a FG, but this could be a statement game for the Eagles.

Philadelphia's defense has trended up substantially since their bye and Vic Fangio has this group absolutely humming. I have real concerns about the Steelers ability to hit explosives in this game without their field spacer George Pickens. Rather than getting involved in a side or total I'll isolate strength on weakness and bet against the Steelers offense today with a team total.

Though this is hard to believe when watching the Eagles in certain weeks when they look like gangbusters, Philly is just 1-4 vs. the line at the Linc this season and 1-7 against the points as host since last December. It's worth noting that the Birds also looked great last season into December before enduring a collapse, and last week's escape vs. Carolina rekindled some of those memories. The WIP crowd is suggesting that Jalen Hurts and the passing game are increasingly unreliable to get the ball downfield...we'll see. Meanwhile, the Steelers are in their preferred underdog role, as Mike Tomlin is 5-0 getting points this season and 14-3 as an underdog since mid 2022. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson is rejuvenating the offense. Play Steelers

Russel Wilson leads his Steelers into battle in a familiar role; catching points. So far this year the Steelers are 5-0 SU and ATS in that role. However picking a side or total isn't my path to profit here it's betting against the explosive pass play for the Steelers. Without George Pickens, the Steelers are without their primary field spacer against a defense getting healthier in the secondary. Look for Arthur Smith to operate horizontally rather than vertically on Sunday against this Vic Fangio defense

I've had trouble knowing what to do with this game all week, as my ratings make it Eagles -7 but I typically want to back Mike Tomlin as a 'dog in this spot. However, the Steelers seem to be a bit inflated in the market with George Pickens out, as I don't know how they score many points on a defense that's second in PPG. The Eagles have the offensive line to win up front where other teams would have issue with this Pittsburgh front, and I don't see Russell Wilson covering through the back door with no Pickens. I'll trust my ratings here.

The Eagles allow the fewest explosive pass plays, which is Pittsburgh's best weapon. Without George Pickens, Russell Wilson will struggle to connect deep against this elite secondary. After a sluggish offensive performance last week, expect a crisper performance from Philly that features A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. It's always tough to bet against Mike Tomlin when he's an underdog, but this spot favors Philly. The Steelers have the Ravens on deck and didn't exacly light up Cleveland's defense, averaging 4.3 yards per play.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-0 against the spread as an underdog and they roll in as an underdog to Philadelphia to play the Eagles. The Steelers are very attractive team to me, for one they’re 10-3 against the spread tied for the best in the NFL. They're also number one in turnover margin tied with Buffalo at plus-17. They lead the NFL with 28 takeaways and it’s so routine for them. The Eagles have the number one-rated defense but it's been aided by their schedule playing the Panthers, Cowboys, Browns, and Giants. The Steelers have the number 7 ranked defense but it has more substance with the takeaways than Philly. Pittsburgh to cover.

I know the Eagles' defense is strong, but this line seems disrespectful to Warren, who has at least 59 total yards in each of his last seven contests. He has out-snapped Najee Harris in two of Pittsburgh's last three games and should see volume as the passing game back once again when the Steelers are trailing on Sunday. I would play this number in the low-60s, if not higher.

Hurts continues to be the Eagles most consistent drive finisher. He has a rushing TD in 7 of the last 8 games and in 5 of the last 6 on the road. The Steelers have only allowed 1 rushing TD to QBs this season but I don't think it will be any easier for Saquon Barkley to find paydirt.

This is simply too big of a number to lay against a very solid Steelers team (note that the +5.5 is at FanDuel but I'm happy to play this at +5 as well). The Steelers will likely be without George Pickens again, but I suspect they'll be able to move the ball well enough to stay close to the Eagles. The Eagles offense looks fine, but clearly not completely in sync and I don't know that the issues in the passing game get cured against Pittsburgh. This is a pretty big spread with a relatively low total and I'm counting on it being close.

The Eagles are due for a loss, overdue perhaps. They have won 9 in a row coming off a bye. Steelers can match their physicality and Eagles pass game very suspect right now. PIT can bottle up Saquon. PIT has far superior special teams and kicker. Eagles dealing with WR/QB issues. Mike Tomlin has won 4 straight as a road dog and 9 of the last 11. Russ Wilson protects the football well, Steelers can turn the Eagles over and control the clock on the ground, too. Things have gone far too smoothly for a Nick Sirianni operation for too long. I love Tomlin in these spots.

Dissent showing in Philly lockerroom after a great start of the season? Stop me if you've heard that before. Lucky not to have lost to Carolina and took 3 missed kicks to beat Baltimore. Nick Sirianni having to juggle drama. Eagles lacking downfield pass game. Hmm. Russ Wilson has a 100+rating in 5 of 7 starts. Steelers have massive kicker advantage. Jalen Hurts 2-6 ATS in 8 as home favorite and lost both AFC games in that situation this year. Mike Tomlin is 11-5 ATS as a road dog since 2022 (.688!). PIT D equipped to stop heavy personnel run game.