This Bears defense is real, especially at home where Chicago is 2-0 this season, and it will present a much tougher test for the Panthers than what Andy Dalton has seen the last two weeks against the Raiders and banged-up Bengals. The biggest concern in this game is Caleb Williams, who beyond making rookie mistakes is failing to hit wide-open receivers; however, he has flashed and should continue to improve this week against a Carolina defense that itself is missing numerous key pieces and stands last in the NFL in scoring and near-last against the run.

The Panthers lost their top two linebackers last week, bad news for a defense giving up 32.3 points per game. Nose tackle Shy Tuttle has missed two straight games and is questionable. This is a matchup in which Caleb Williams and D'Andre Swift should thrive. Carolina enters with the NFL's worst red-zone defense, too.

I'll admit this feels a little suckery. It's not because of anything Johnson's doing -- he's had at least 13 targets and seven catches from Andy Dalton in each of two games together. And the weather shouldn't be that big of a factor in Chicago, especially since 10 of the 15 catches Johnson's had from Dalton have been inside of 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. And it's not the Bears defense, which is great at limiting receivers' yardage but will still give up catches -- they have allowed at least six grabs to an opponents' top target-getter in 2 of their past 3 games. Johnson's volume doesn't figure to be an issue, and he should come through with a lot of receptions.

The Bears are undervalued on their home field due to a strong market overreaction to Andy Dalton taking over as QB for the Panthers. The Bears are a top-5 defensive unit in the NFL in terms of EPA per play, and that will show against this Panthers offense. Look for the Bears to take a big step forward offensively against a beat-up Panthers defense that ranks in the bottom 5 of the league. The Bears should be closer to -6.

The Bears haven't been great against the run this year, allowing three RBs over 80 yards rushing thus far. Now Hubbard gets a chance to surpass 60 yards for the fourth straight game against a defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry to RBs. Considering he's seen 39 combined carries in the last two weeks, I expect a heavy workload and for him to exceed this total once again in Week 5.

The Panthers couldn't punch in a fourth down at the goal line on their first drive last week, and I wonder if they get more respect in the market had they delivered. That said, I've been probably the high person on Carolina at SportsLine with their offensive upgrade, and I'm still lower than the market on Chicago, and my line for this game is Bears -4. With the Panthers' injuries on defense, particularly at linebacker, the Bears offense should finally break out in this game, and a good defense at home can limit Carolina enough to get the cover. I'm scooping up the last available -3.5 at FanDuel but -4 is worth a play as well.

It's now so clear that Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams is faring much better off play action in the early going, and D'Andre Swift was a big part of that in Week 4 with a season-high 93 yards on 16 carries against a pretty good Rams defense. Carolina is allowing nearly 150 yards per game on the ground. Both our model and AI have Swift well over this total.

The Carolina defense is beat up and will likely be without multiple starters on Sunday. Caleb Williams doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, but his playmaking ability is undeniable. The Bears wide receivers could have a field day against Carolina's depleted secondary. I like Chicago to win by 6+ in this game at Soldier Field.

Going to stick with this play from last week despite a much different opponent for Carolina here. The Bears offense appears to be improving but I still don't trust them to get to 30 like I'd expect from many teams against this bad, beat-up Carolina defense. However, 11 of 12 red zone drives vs. Carolina have ended in a TD, so I'm not sure even the Bears could screw this up. Both these teams get to 20 here, which should make this an Over we don't have to sweat hard pending some unexpected Chicago weather.

Chicago doesn't deserve to be laying more than a field goal to anybody. Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams leads the league in "bad throws.” This Carolina secondary has struggled, but I'm not ready to bet on Williams to exploit it. The Bears defense has played exceptionally well, but very quietly the Panthers offensive line has tremendously improved. If they can give QB Andy Dalton some time to work, he can keep breathing life into this Panthers offense, which has exponentially improved since he took over for Bryce Young. This is an ugly bet, but it feels like the right side. 4.5 is too many points for a struggling rookie QB to lay.

One of my favorite bets is to take the money line when the spread is four or 4 1/2 and the price is less than two dollars for a home team. Chicago checks the boxes.

Do I think the Bears are suddenly world-beaters? Certainly not, but less than -250 at home against sorry Carolina? Don't get that. We won't get Bryce Young vs. Caleb Williams, though, unless Andy Dalton leaves injured. Williams has looked a lot better the past two weeks. The Cats lost another top defender for the season in Sunday's loss in linebacker and leading tackler Shaq Thompson. Chicago isn't good enough offensively yet to blow out Carolina so can't justify giving 3.5 points but go ahead and toss any Chicago playoff hopes in the garbage with a loss. It's also the team's last true home game until Nov. 10 so it's important.