Tampa Bay look advantage of a weak Commanders secondary. Detroit’s defense looked to be improved and even though the game went into overtime the game still went under the total. Lions home games last season went over the total in seven out of 10, but they had one game last season with a total higher than 51 and that game also went under the total. We’ll take the contrarian route here, since the public is expecting a lot of points today.

The Bucs kept pace with the Lions until the waning moments in last year's playoffs as a 6-point underdog and there's additional value with the key number plus the hook in this one. The Lions survived last week but were fortunate to get past the Rams. Don't get comfortable laying key numbers with them.

Despite playing to a 31-23 result in last season's NFC Divisional round matchup, I think the Under is the play here. In the 2023 regular season, Detroit and Tampa Bay played to a score of 20-6. Tampa's 37-point performance last week came against the Commanders, who may have the league's worst defense. The Lions are much improved on the defensive side of the ball. Both of these teams rank among the slowest in pace of play, and the Lions could go with a run-heavy approach on offense. If the clock stays running, this game can go Under this inflated total of 51.5.

The Lions defensive front brought heavy pressure in Week 1, and I expect more of the same against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. Look for Mayfield to screen and check down often to RB Rachaad White, who is a skilled pass-catching back. In Week 1, White had 6 receptions on 6 targets for 75 receiving yards, including a 32-yarder that he broke off. In last year's playoff matchup against Detroit, White went over this receiving yards total. The Bucs are big underdogs, and if they are playing from behind, White can also eclipse this number in "garbage time." I would even consider laddering up White's receiving yards.

The Detroit Lions will be sizable favorites every week, and showed that with an enormous line move before Sunday night football last week. Now instead of a 3.5 point favorite they have ballooned double the number against Tampa Bay. This is a rare spot I don’t mind backing the big number. This is the third matchup between the Lions and Buccaneers over the last two seasons, and Tampa Bay has always been an untrustworthy team off a big win. Lay it with the Lions

Once I saw the hook on this spread I jumped on it. I have the Lions winning here by six, so this is a nice value on a Tampa Bay team that has plenty of experience and looked good in Week 1.

Chris Godwin looked fully healthy in Week 1 on his way to a 8 target, 83 yard performance, where Godwin routinely showed up his ability to make tough catches for 1st downs. Godwin showed some burst that he simply didnt have last season as he was clearly operating at less than 100% for the majority of the season. Baker Mayfield is also locked in and I expect significant passing volume while the Bucs struggle to run the ball, in addition to a game with a 51 point total being played in a dome.

This game-changer was quiet in Week 1 but he has been a menace to the Bucs D and he gets to face them with a beat up secondary here. ARSB caught 20 of 29 targets vs them last season (including playoffs) and had 124 in the regular season meeting (77 in playoffs). Since 2022, at home, St Brown averages 7 catches for 89 yards. His YAC abilities are special and even underneath and screens can be big gains. Head coach loves him and I can't imagine he isn't featured here.

As much as I like the Lions this year, it's not that easy to score 31 points in the NFL -- so this number is almost an auto-Under for me unless, you know, some offense gets to face White Sox pitching. Detroit scoring 40 wouldn't shock me, but the Lions only had 20 in regulation in Week 1 vs. the Rams. Tampa Bay's defense played quite well in the opening win over Washington. When these clubs played in last season's Divisional Round also at Ford Field, the Lions won 31-23, but Baker Mayfield had two picks that helped lead to those 31 points. The SL Model has the Lions with 24 points.

The Bucs' passing game looked incredible in Week 1, but that came against probably the worst secondary in the league. Detroit's secondary didn't completely shut down the Rams but certainly fared better than last season, and I expect their pass rush to make life more difficult for Baker Mayfield here. The Bucs lost three CBs to injury in Week 1 and they should struggle to contain this Lions offense in Detroit. I have this line at Lions -8 and think we're getting excellent value fading the Bucs off a dominant win against a weak opponent.