Divisional home underdogs in Week 1 are 22-7 ATS since 2010, and 9-2 ATS since 2018. The Texans come into this season with as much hype as any team, but it does feel a bit rushed. Colts QB Anthony Richardson remains a fairly unknown commodity, but has all the potential in the world as a mobile QB in this Shane Steichen offense. The betting handle is heavy on the Texans, so I'll play the house and take the home dogs. CJ Stroud went just 3-5 ATS as a favorite last year. If Richardson stays healthy, look for the Colts to make noise in the AFC this season.

The Colts play extremely well at home, but Anthony Richardson is basically still a rookie given his limited play in 2023 (and the way he looked in the preseason). The Texans upgraded significantly around C.J. Stroud with Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs boosting an offense that was already running smoothly. Both teams have the chances to win the AFC South this season, but the Texans might be one of the best teams in the conference.

This is -175 on most sites and will be 3.5 soon. A full 1.5 unit play. He’s a emerging player who will exceed expectations

Adonai Mitchell looks set for a full time roll and heavy route participation in Week 1 after Colts starting slot receiver Josh Downs has been ruled out versus the Houston Texans. I was impressed with Mitchell’s usage in the preseason as he was able to draw targets from all over the field and looked to be the Colts most explosive receiving option. The Texans boasted an excellent run defense last season and were much more vulnerable through the air. I like Mitchell’s chances of at least 90% route participation and the impressive rookie should draw a healthy target share in the process.

The Colts were a dropped pass at the goal line away from sneaking into the playoffs last year despite injuries to QB Anthony Richardson and other key players. Now, they' should be improved and are looking for a little payback against a Texans club that was probably a year ahead of schedule last year. They are the trendy pick to win the division, but will face resistance from a Colts club that has its own designs on a breakout season.

These teams played for the division crown in Week 18 last year, with the Texans winning a tight matchup. That the Colts were neck and neck with Houston despite playing most of the year with a backup QB is impressive, and I expect a run game that dominated that Week 18 matchup to be even better with Anthony Richardson back. Shane Steichen should have a field day attacking the Houston run defense. The line in Week 18 was Houston -1.5 in Indy, and now the Colts have their QB back, so I have to think we're getting value catching the full field goal.

Before he went out of the game with an injury last season, Anthony Richardson and the Colts were up 14-0 against the Texans. Now, both teams have improved on both sides of the ball this offseason, but there's no reason why the Colts shouldn't be taken seriously in this ball game against a division foe.

I don’t see this game being played in the 50s. Indy will want to run the ball and they play good defense. Plus, I’m not sure Houston is the offensive juggernaut that they hype train is selling. And the Texan D is improved. Divisional game and two good coaches. Under

Anthony Richardson may ultimately become a top-flight NFL quarterback, but right now his accuracy and decision-making are lacking. That was evident throughout the preseason, in games and joint practices. The Texans have no such concerns with C.J. Stroud. With the second-year star on a cheap contract, they wisely went all-in this offseason, landing Danielle Hunter (16.5 sacks), Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, Folo Fatukasi and Azeez Al-Shaair, among others. Houston won the division last year despite being the NFL's most injured team. The Texans are relatively healthy now and poised for greatness. Look for Indy to fall to 0-10-1 straight-up in its last 11 season openers, and lose by a field goal or more.

I'm a pretty big fan of the Colts this year and I think they are very live to win the AFC South. They get the Texans at home Week 1 and I think it's a good spot to lean on Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor behind a solid offensive line. I think we're going to see some ball control and bludgeoning at the line of scrimmage, similar to the gameplan that the Ravens undertook against the Texans in the playoffs. The Colts secondary is a question, but they're very solid at almost every other position group. Home team gets the win here.