Part of this pick is due to the weather, part of it is due to Pittsburgh's issues on the offensive side of the ball. I expect both teams to run the ball more than they typically would due to the weather, which will shorten the game, and I don't expect the Steelers to score enough points for this game to reach 40 total points. Bet the under.

There is a mindset that cold-weather games will automatically be run-heavy and low-scoring. As proven by the Chiefs, the best way to win such games is to operate offensively as you otherwise would. In that sense, the Bills are far more explosive than the Steelers, and Josh Allen is far more experienced overall and in this weather. Pittsburgh will try to reduce possessions and control the clock with a ground-based attack, but how will it effectively stop Buffalo consistently without TJ Watt? The Steelers D gives up a touchdown more per game -- and gets half as many pressures -- without him in the lineup. Wanting to play this game, the Bills are the side. See if you can get -9.5 before kickoff.

Backup quarterback and bad weather means plenty of RB action for the Steelers. And while I do like Najee Harris to see a lot of it, I still think we get good value here with Jaylen Warren. He lost a fumble in the freezing rain last week which caused this to go under, but overall the over is 7-3 down the stretch this season. The Bills allow the 5th most rushing yards per carry in the league, our model has Warren projected for 48 yards.

I can only hope that Mason Rudolph took some lessons from his Ravens matchup. The man had his feet glued in the pocket and took some serious hits. We should be able to get one or two scrambles from Rudolph in this playoff environment coupled with the bad weather. The Bills defense has the ability to apply the pressure to flush him out, let's see if he runs to avoid the tackle this time.

Simply put, I don't see this game being competitive. The Mason Rudolph-led Steelers have found recent success, but largely on the back of a few big plays against weak teams. The loss of TJ Watt cannot be understated. In games played without Watt, the Steelers are 1-10 SU & 4-6-1 ATS. Weather conditions are not as severe as initially expected, and at home in Buffalo I expect Josh Allen to handle business against the weakest team to make the playoffs. Mason Rudolph is a regression candidate, and if Pittsburgh is playing from behind early on, their run-focused game plan could be compromised. Since 2010, double-digit playoff favorites are 11-4 ATS. Don't be afraid to back Buffalo in a beat down.

Josh Allen's passing yards prop is only 225.5 but I think that number is more evenly distributed than people think among Kincaid, Diggs and Shakir. We witnessed that very thing last week when Gabe Davis went out last week and each of those three pass catchers smashed for 80+ yards. Kincaid has more than doubled this yardage total over his last two games and I think he will be leaned on as a reliable/conservative target to the turnover prone Josh Allen. I like his reception prop as well, but my lean is to the yardage due to what he can do after the catch and in the open field.

Rudolph has been excellent for the Steelers in their late season push, having led them to three straight victories and a playoff berth. Even in a quagmire last week in Baltimore, he nearly matched this number despite weather and game flow being against him. In what should be a second half of Pittsburgh trailing, I expect Rudolph to top 200 yards passing as the Steelers mount a comeback attempt.

Harris' rushing volume has been massive since Mason Rudolph took over as Pittsburgh's quarterback with three weeks to go in the regular season. Since then he's scored four rushing touchdowns, matching his output for the entire season beforehand. With the weather not as bad as expected in Buffalo, Pittsburgh should be able to move the ball and set up a goal line opportunity or two for their primary running back.

Although inclement weather is often an overestimated factor when analyzing totals, there are other reasons to like the Under on the total in this game, which has seen wild swings. Buffalo has become a more run-oriented team in recent weeks, and Pittsburgh will likely have to revert to its smash-mouth ways if it is to cover or have a chance to pull the upset.

Buffalo's struggles stopping the run are well documented, but they also have issues covering RBs in the pass game, especially with Matt MIlano gone. Bills allowed 6.3 yards/catch to RBs, (29th), and 112 receptions (24th). Warren has 4+ catches in 5 in a row and 23+ receiving yards in 4 of 5. Mason Rudolph has averaged over 9.0 YPA but the weather likely will cut into some of those deep shots, that I now think go to Warren in the flank. Warren's tackle avoided% (35.6%) is twice the league average and on potentially bad footing letting him juke defenders in space seems like a smart way to go (offense has advantage on bad track). Bills were bottom third of NFL in missed tackle%.

The total has yo-yo'ed all over the place -- from the low 40s down to 33 when the game was set for Sunday and up to the current figure with the postponement to Monday. While projected weather conditions are less harsh than on the original date, gusty winds and bitter cold remain in the forecast. Expect the Steelers, with QB backup Mason Rudolph, to eschew passing and stick to their recent rush-first approach under a new coordinator more than ever. While the absence of Pittsburgh pass rusher T.J. Watt is worrisome, S Minkah Fitzpatrick returns after a three-game hiatus. The Bills will miss WR Gabe Davis, thus enhancing the chances of "improving" their current Under record of 11-6.

Can it have been that simple for the Steelers as switching away from Mitch Trubisky at QB? To some degree, yes, because Mike Tomlin had erred the past two seasons when putting Trubisky above Mason Rudolph on the Pittsburgh depth chart, and Steel has revived behind Rudolph, who has delivered confident and poised leadership and helped reintroduce George Pickens back into the offense during the season-ending three-game win streak that also has featured a revived Najee Harris, off back-to-back 100+ yard rushing efforts. Historically tough as an underdog, Mike Tomlin is also 7-2 his last nine getting points. And for Buffalo's late-season hot streak, only one of those last five wins was dominating (against travel-poor Dallas). Play Steelers

Though not as bad as Sunday, weather conditions are expected to be snowy at Orchard Park on Monday. Still, we have seen in the past when this sort of chill hasn't necessarily resulted in a low-scoring game. It was plenty cold in Buffalo for the Wild Card round last January vs. Miami in a game that landed on 65. Pittsburgh has looked more confident on offense since the switch at QB to Mason Rudolph, who hasn't tossed a pick in three winning starts, and Najee Harris provides the sort of all-terrain back who works well in these conditions. Note the Steelers have been scoring at a 27 ppg clip since Rudolph took over at QB three weeks ago. Play Steelers-Bills "Over"

Jaylen Warren is clearly the Steelers' preferred back on passing downs. He has caught 23 passes the past five games, notching at least four receptions every time. With this game moved to Monday, the wind is forecasted to be 15 mph, with gusts of 20-25 mph. Not great for passing downfield, but fine for screens and dumpoffs.

Josh Allen has exceeded a 65% completion percentage 2x in the last 8 games (basically since they haired a new OC). One indoors v the LAC and the other @Miami. Buffalo in January will not resemble either of those conditions. In fact he has not completed over 50% in either of his last 2 in Buffalo. Under.

In the seven games since the Bills changed playcallers, Cook has had 15 touches or more in every outing, 15 or more carries in 5 of 7 games and at least 16 carries in every single home game. The matchup isn't easy as the Steelers are pretty good against the run, but that hasn't stopped opponents from attempting 22.7 RB rushes per game with 10 RBs getting at least 16 carries. In fact, a RB has 16+ carries in all but one of Pittsburgh's seven losses this year -- it was Cleveland in Week 11 when it split evenly between their top two backs. Tack on the certifiably cold and blustery weather expected in Buffalo on Sunday, and it feels like Cook should run wild.

We may be losing 10 as 9.5s are starting to show up ... I was really hoping for +10.5 but guess not. Also was really hoping for Belinda Carlisle to attend my birthday party once but that didn't come true, either. Simply think with potentially horrible weather that it would be a challenge for Buffalo to win by at least 11 barring some defensive/special teams scores. Pittsburgh's ATS mark all-time w/out TJ Watt is awful, but Mason Rudolph (and Najee Harris by extension) has energized that offense. Likely that Bills No. 2 WR Gabe Davis is out. And we know that Josh Allen is very capable of handing the Steelers the ball at any time.

Josh Allen has been relying heavily on his legs ever since Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as the Bills OC. Buffalo has opted to deploy a much more run heavy/conservative approach and as a result Allen has registered at least 8 rush attempts in five of his last six games, while averaging 9.7 attempts over that sample. Allen tends to rely heavily on his legs in high leverage situations which this game certainly qualifies. There is also expected to be some snow/wind which is going to limit Josh Allen dropbacks as well. One final aspect that is in our favor is Buffalo are double digit favorites which could provide us with a few kneel downs which count as rushing attempts.

The Steelers (52%) and Bills (51.8%) ran the ball a higher percentage than any other NFL teams since Week 11. The Steelers were 11-6 to the under (6-2 on road); the Bills were 11-6 to the under (6-3 at home). The average Steelers road game totaled 36 points and this wind should be prohibitive to throw and kick. Bills allowed just 15.9 PPG at home (3rd), and this is still Mason Rudolph at QB for Steelers. I thought this would drop more by now, but it hasn't. I'm thinking 21-10 kind of game; I can't find a side on this spread but Mother Nature is undefeated and Bills can win leaning into the road game and playing this to survive and advance.

This offense has been at its most efficient in the second half of the season running through Cook. His workload in the pass game has waned at times, but if this wind is as fierce as we think, the screen game might be the way to go. And I see plenty of touches in the run game, too. Steelers finished the season 21st in yards/carry allowed. I could see 20 touches for Cook, No TJ Watt also has me thinking Cook could get off a little bit more and have some explosive plays.

The weather forecast for this game was projected to be grim early in the week, and it hasn't improved as we get closer to gameday. Winds will be a major factor, and they could be even worse than the Patriots-Bills game a few years back where Mac Jones threw just three passes. Snowfall could also be a contributing factor to hampering these offenses, which should both lean more on the run game and keep the clock moving. I'd be surprised if this game gets anywhere near this total.

This is the last 36.5 on our board -- seeing some 35.5s already -- and that hook might be vital considering as of right now the SL Model has 36 points being scored. I will say that if you think the Bills will cover, the Under might not be wise considering the spread is nearly 28% of the total (unless of course you think the Steelers will be held to single-digit points, which is certainly possible; I will be taking +10.5 if it gets there). This is purely a weather play as here's the current forecast for Sunday: Windy with snow showers in the morning. High around 25F. Winds WSW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 50%. Snowfall around one inch.

In the RZ the Steelers get old school with a journeyman QB,and lean on Harris. It's a constant. He is the guy. Mason Rudolph isn't much of a vulture threat. They go heavy and they go power to try to score, and that's Harris. He has 4 TDs in the last 3 games and I don't think the Steelers are scoring a lot here, but Buffalo's run D is very vulnerable.

Since Mason Rudolph took over at QB, there has been more conviction in the run game, and particularly the RB's role. The Steelers want to run him 20 times now. The intent is clear. On a blustery day with this QB, they have to stick with the run and lean into TOP. Steelers have highest run% in the second half of the season and this is their lead dog. He's had at least 14 carries in every victory and Jaylen Warren's role continues to fluctuate and his fumbles must weigh on Mike Tomlin. Warren is their lead guy and they will stick with it and try to grind this defense down. Bills are 28th in yards/carry allowed. Would be nuts not to try to exploit.

Allen's rushing usage is way up down the stretch, like it always is. The wind could be a massive issue in this game and the passing game curtailed and the Bills powerful run game is based on multiplicity and not so much one guy running 25 times. Allen will find some holes against this defense. He has 54+ rushing yards in 5 of his 8 playoff games. He has 6 carries or more in 7 of his 8 playoff games. I think the Steelers keep this close enough that Allen can't just bail on his legs. I also think he ends up with at least one explosive run of 20 or longer. He'll run a few people over along the way..

Josh Allen is coming off 15- and 11-carry outings, and I like him to run at least nine times Sunday in the blustery conditions. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts ranging from 40-60 mph will make it tough to throw. Allen tends to run more in high-leverage contests and a playoff game certainly qualifies.

This matchup pits the best team playing this weekend against the worst, but a complicating factor is the weather. Extreme winds are expected, potentially the windiest playoff game this century. Couple that with the decent chance of multiple inches of snow and this game sets up to heavily feature the rushing attacks. That couldn't be better news for Pittsburgh, which needs as much help as possible to battle the Buffalo pass offense with T.J. Watt sidelined. The Steelers also have a stronger rush offense than passing and a smart coach who will play to the team's strengths. In beautiful weather, I make the line Bills -11 with the Steelers being a below-average team, but in expected conditions I don't see Buffalo winning by double digits.

Harris has 19, 27 and 26 carries since Mason Rudolph took over as the Steelers' starting quarterback, all wins. It's set to be very windy on Sunday in Buffalo so that could mean even more Harris -- we just have to hope Jaylen Warren doesn't siphon off too much. The Bills are middle of the pack against the run.