The Saints will no doubt be a popular public favorite Sunday, but this is a tricky spot for them. Workhorse RB Alvin Kamara is out, and the defense allowed Atlanta to rack up 228 rushing yards in the first meeting. The reeling Falcons looked dreadful last week at Chicago but Desmond Ridder, the better of their two middling QB options, will be behind center. In what could be polarizing coach Arthur Smith's last game for Atlanta, the value is with the underdog in what rates to be a close matchup.

Late decision here with the Saints, which simply boast the better offense with the better quarterback (Derek Carr vs. Desmond Ridder) at home. New Orleans has surged a bit of late and found some answers defensively it did not have earlier in the season. Alvin Kamara is out, but there are enough weapons to get the job done. Atlanta will focus on the ground game, but that takes a lot of time to operate, and NO knows it needs to stop it after their first meeting. If it's close late, the Saints simply have a better chance of getting the job done.

Williams led the NFL in TDs last season and hasn't scored this year, which is shocking -- but also partly due to Alvin Kamara's presence. Kamara is out this week so any goal-line carries should go to Williams.

No Alvin Kamara is not ideal but still prefer that Saints offense to Atlanta's with Desmond Ridder at quarterback. The defenses aren't close. Probably the last game for Dirty Birds coach Arthur Smith.

RB Alvin Kamara is an injury scratch for the Saints. Same with QB Taylor Heinicke for the Falcons, which puts slumping Desmond Ridder behind center. With Kamara out -- he logged 15 of 28 carries in the first meeting -- the banged-up Saints O-line might struggle to protect QB Derek Carr, who has endured an injury-filled season. Both teams have a foot in the playoff picture, so look for both coaches to call a close-to-the-vest game offensively.

Neither of these teams are very good, but it's the Saints who have the momentum winning 3 of their last 4 games while the Falcons have lost 3 of their last 4. The Falcons were able to win the last time these teams matched up behind a very effective running game, but it'll be a different story on the road. I like how Derek Carr has been playing over the last half of the season and the Falcons QB situation continues to be a mess.

The Falcons find themselves on the outside looking in on the NFC playoff picture with an estimated 14% chance to make the postseason. They will need some help, however this is a must win game and I'd be shocked if we don't see Bijan receive a hefty workload. While its certainly been a disappointing season from a usage standpoint, Bijan he has been mostly as good as advertised. Considering Robinson has racked up over 1300 combined rushing + receiving yards, despite missing 1 game, while the consensus has been its been a disappointing season, really just indicates how talented he is. Bijan is 52 rushing yards shy of 1K and I believe both he and Atlanta will be motivated to see him achieve this.

The Falcons have allowed their opponents to kick multiple successful field goals in 7 of their last 8 games, including Grupe, who hit five of six attempts in Week 12. New Orleans' kicker made three field goals last week against Tampa Bay and in a must win game once again, I expect New Orleans to move the ball plenty. Grupe is my token field goal prop of the week.

Dennis Allen is conservative at his core, especially in close divisional games. He's facing the no. 3 RZ defense in the NFL in a must-win game and he trusts this kid kicker. Grupe went 5/6 vs ATL the first game and he has hit this in 4 of 5 divisional games. It's a dome. It's still Derek Carr in the clutch, which could mean RZ problems.

The Saints can't stop the run and the Falcons don't have a QB. You do the math. They ran for 228 on New Orleans the first game. Allgeier is over this in three of the last four, this should be a close enough game, and he gets his 10 carries a game in those scripts. He has at least 9 rushes for at least 40 yards in all five divisional games this season. Ran 10 times for 64 yards against the Saints this season.

This is a potential playoff game for these teams if the Jaguars lose, so motivation will not be a factor like it is in several other matchups. The Falcons pass offense managed less than 100 net passing yards once you remove the long Tyler Allgeier dump-and-run, and even though the Saints allowed 7 yards per play last week, most of the production came after they were up big. The Saints must be focused on slowing a Falcons rushing attack that had a season-best 228 rush yards in the first meeting, but if they do I don't believe the Atlanta passing game can make them pay. Derek Carr is playing well and can carry an offense not likely to have Alvin Kamara to a cover.

Two teams in football purgatory needing help if their seasons are to continue. Two teams that know each other well and tend to play under games. Two coaches who don't know much about winning big games. Two top 10 RZ defenses. They combined for 39 points in the first meeting. Five of the Saints seven home games are 41 or under. Saints are 11-5 to the under and Falcons 10-6. Four of six Falcons games since their bye are 39 or less. I don't buy either QB. Both coaches fearful for their jobs.