The Packers lost last week because Baker Mayfield and his weapons went off. We simply have not seen that from Bryce Young, who has neither thrown for more than 200 yards nor thrown a TD without at least one INT since Oct. 29. Green Bay has averaged nearly 10 points per game more than Carolina over that span, and it has no choice but to win out with the playoffs still possible. Green Bay was a 5.5-point road favorite over the Giants; despite losing that game, you cannot tell me Carolina rates better than New York. This seems like an over-adjustment, and catching this under 4 creates an opening.

This total continues to soar and, although both clubs have exploitable weaknesses on the defensive side, this is a value number for the Under. The Packers have played Over in four straight, but the Panthers are coming off a 9-7 victory and reaching their 14.7 ppg average feels like an ambitious milestone for this team.

The veteran WR has seen his production tail off as the Panthers have made a concerted effort to get others involved. However, they have done so only to moderate success and Thielen remains the top target in the passing game. He should receive plenty of targets Sunday in a game script that should see Carolina have some offensive flow.

I'll admit that I'm totally biased here: Might be the biggest I've rooted for Green Bay in my life as I WANT that Carolina No. 1 overall pick for the Bears and if the Panthers lose here, they are almost a lock to get it. . This is Green Bay's season in terms of any wild card chances and the defense gets a couple of key starters back led by Jaire Alexander. There's apparently an illness going through the Carolina locker room as well. Go Pack Go! (Vomit barf hurl!)

Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard has 22-plus carries in three straight games since the head-coaching change. Packers opponents have averaged 30.5 carries -- fourth-most in the NFL. Look for Hubbard to get another big workload Sunday.

Struggling quarterbacks like to show toughness by running the ball. Jordan Love only had three rushing yards on four carries his last two games (both losses). But when they had great wins against KC and Detroit, he went over this line. Carolina is playing well vs the run which could lead to third and long for Love and some opportunities to scramble for 8 yards on a 3rd and 10.

With rookie quarterback Bryce Young struggling, the Panthers want to run the ball as much as possible. They have asked for a lot from Chuba Hubbard, who has at least 22 carries in each of their last three games. This is a great matchup for the Panthers to lean heavily on their running backs, with the Packers allowing the third-most rushing yards per game in the league. Don’t be surprised if Hubbard receives at least 20 carries again. We only need him to get 17 to hit this over.

On the season no team has seen fewer pass attempts per game against them than Carolina, it's 28.4 per game. Only 3 QBs (Geno Smith, Derek Carr & Dak Prescott) went over 33 pass attempts, and only Dak has done it since Week 4! Additionally, Packers coach Matt LaFleur lamented not running it more last week and seems to be focused on getting the run game more work, especially in Aaron Jones' second game back from injury. Finally, the Packers haven't won by two scores much this year but when they have, Love has gone under 34 pass attempts each time. Sunday could be three.

Since Frank Reich was fired, Hubbard has gone over this in three straight with 22 or more carries in three straight. That includes a blowout loss at New Orleans. He'll take on a Packers defense that's given up at least 80 rush yards to a running back in three straight and 4 of its past 6. Better yet, the Packers are slated to play without linebacker De'Vondre Campbell -- with him they give up 4.1 yards per carry this year; without him that number jumps up to 4.7. Every little bit helps.

Hubbard has touched the football 105 times over the last five weeks. He is the Panthers offense. He's touched the ball 25 times or more in three straight games and 19 the game before that. And he's been very effective handling that heavy load and moving the football. He has 90+ scrimmage yards in 4 straight since the roles changed in Carolina. Perfectly template to follow against this terrible Packers D a week ago by Rachaad White with the Bucs last week. This isn't rocket science. Run the ball and throw screen passes to your every-down back.

Hubbard has become a true workhorse back on the ground and through the air. Hubbard is tied for 3rd in the NFL in touches over the last five weeks and he is their RZ guy and the QB isn't a runner and he doesn't throw for TDs, either. Packers are terrible against the run and not so great defending they in the screen game and Rachaad White just hit paydirt from distance last week. Hubbard should as well. Packers have given up 6 rushing TDs in the last 6 games. A RB has scored against them in 5 of the last 6.

Jordan Love and that Packers offense are far less efficient and productive on the road. And for all of Green Bay's defensive woes, Carolina can't exploit anyone. Panthers content to be methodical on the ground and Packers will comply there and clock keeps bleeding. Green Bay has a top 10 RZ D, however, and Panthers are 29th in RZ offense. Carolina has played 8 games since its bye and have 94 total points. They have 15 points scored the last 2 weeks and Carolina D is now top 8 in yards/play, despite a road-heavy schedule. GB road scoring outside NFC North: 22 (NYG), 19 (PIT), 17 (DEN), 13 (LV), 24 (ATL). Defensive struggle.

The Packers were largely let down by their defense last week, but that can't possibly happen here against an atrocious Panthers offense that's 32nd in yards per play. Carolina has topped 200 net pass yards in only one of Bryce Young's 13 starts and has just six offensive TDs since their Week 7 bye. But the Carolina defense continues to shine, now ranking eighth in yards per play and giving up 253 yards per game since the bye (league-leading Cleveland allows 261 yards per game). Without a garbage-time TD vs the Bucs, the Panthers would have scored no more than 13 in any of their last seven games (and no more than 10 in any of their last five). Let's back another low-scoring game.