It looks as though this major spread move won't hit the massive key number of +14, but there's still enough value to back a flawed but desperate underdog with a spread that has moved 3 points since the opener. The Cowboys have been great at crushing poor teams at home, besting the Jets, Rams, Patriots and Giants by an average of nearly 28 points. But they are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home Thanksgiving games, and the mercurial Commanders have done their best ATS work on the road. Three of their four wins have come away from home, and they also covered the number against Philadelphia and Seattle.

Everyone expects this game to be a blowout, but I believe the market has pushed the line too far. The lookahead for this game was just Cowboys -9.5 before the Commanders got embarrassed by the Giants, but I don't believe they're fundamentally any different of a team and the line has blown past my projection of Cowboys -11.5. I'll take the two points of line value with an offense capable of moving the ball through the air and getting a garbage time score to cover. The Cowboys are on a 1-11 ATS run on Thanksgiving and haven't won by more than eight points on the day since 2009. Let's fade this huge line move and back recent history.

We are careful regarding the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, which has been a huge money-loser for Dallas backers across the past decade (Jerry Jones 1-11 vs. line last 12 Turkey Day specials in Arlington). And we are skeptical of the rampant Dak Prescott hype, fueled by his efforts vs. lesser teams. Well, here comes another of those, as Washington looks on the ropes after a second consecutive loss to the Giants (the Giants?), and Ron Rivera's situation becoming all the more tenuous. Who is next on the Cowboys' schedule, anyway...Rice? Play Cowboys

The Cowboys went out and got Brandin Cooks for a reason and that reason is coming to fruition as his target share has surpassed Michael Gallup and remains high above Jalen Tolbert. CeeDee Lamb will certainly dominate targets, but next in line is Brandin Cooks, and against this Commanders defense he may get it on one reception. The good news is he should have 4-5 targets so he may get there on volume as well.

Sam Howell has hit this pass attempt number in 5 games in a row and 7 of his last 8. He gets another negative game script against the Cowboys and it's very unlikely that the Washington running game shows up. That means plenty of passes from Sam Howell yet again. I like the completions number for Howell as well, but my preference is the attempts in case we see some inefficiency thanks to an aggressive and chaotic Cowboy defense.

The Cowboys not only won at home often, but over the last three seasons they’ve gone 17-5 SU and 15-7 ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS this season. They score a ton at home and the defense contributes which is almost an expectant. They’ve gone 7-1 SU and ATS as the favorite. They’ve gone Over the total in three of their four home games. Washington will help with the scoring. Over is the top play in this game.

There's a shootout coming in this spot on Thanksgiving. The Commanders defense is completely neutered and the Cowboys are rolling big time right now. Dak Prescott's playing as well as anyone quarterback in football over the last month-plus, and he'd be getting MVP buzz if the Cowboys needed to do anything on offense against the Panthers. CeeDee Lamb is coming off a "small" game, so I'd expect a massive holiday bounceback here. Sam Howell makes a bunch of mistakes but he's also capable of letting some deep shots fly.

The Cowboys blew out another overmatched opponent last week, but they did so with CeeDee Lamb recording just 38 receiving yards. Considering he averages over 100 on the season and had come in with four straight 100-yard games, getting to 100 in an average matchup is a reasonable expectation. But this week he's facing the atrocious Commanders defense, the only team to allow 2,000 receiving yards to WRs this season. With the Washington pass offense proving capable, the Cowboys will need to stay on the gas throughout this game, and that means feeding Lamb constantly. I'd ladder this Over as high as it can go.

For three straight games now, Michael Gallup has been on the field for less than half of Dallas' offensive plays. That leaves Brandin Cooks as the No. 2 behind CeeDee Lamb. Cooks has been targeted 14 times over the past two games, and on Thursday he faces a horrific Washington pass defense. Look for Cooks, who also can be used on end-arounds, to notch at least 40 yards from scrimmage.

Been riding this a bit and even with a ridiculous six turnovers last week he still got to 255. Dallas should be up big and Commanders will let him throw trying to pad the stats and score some points. He leads the NFL in yards and completions and has been far better on the road than at home. Averages 271 ys/G on the road and is 9th in the NFL in road passer rating. Also has 10 TDs to 2 INTs in those 6 road games. The INTs give me pause but he will see plenty of soft shells down multiple scores and I like him to bounce back here. Dallas is far more stout against the run, and we could get 45 passing attempts.

This number will go up. Washington pass D is horrendous (28th in y/pass) and Dak has 300+ yards and 4 TDS in each of his last 2 at home vs WSH. He averages 309/G in his last 5 at home. Commanders can't cover Lamb in the slot or Cooks on the outside. WSH traded both starting edge rushers, and they won't get 9 sacks here. Yes, I am playing this in alt markets at 300 and above. Even in a blowout win, they'll air it out against an inferior foe. It's how they roll. Last week outdoors on the road with the blip. This is another 40-burger. Put on a show for Jerry Jones and all of 'Merica.

This is a brutal matchup for Sam Howell who will face a Cowboys pass defense that is 2nd in EPA allowed per dropback. Dallas is surrendering a paltry 170 passing yards per game to opposing QBs. While Sam Howell and the Commanders have orchestrated one of the highest volume passing offenses in the league this year, it has resulted in Howell getting sacked a league high 54 times. This doesnt bode well against an elite Dallas pass rush that excels at getting quick pressure on QBs.Howell has held onto the ball too long trying to make big plays down the field.