The Steelers have played well defensively, but I do not see how they will have the offensive firepower to match the Rams in this game -- even coming off the bye week. While Los Angeles is dealing with running back issues, it has been a relatively plug-and-play position for LA. Cooper Kupp's return has the Rams operating well offensively, and their only losses (also failed covers) this season have come against teams that are Super Bowl contenders. Pittsburgh is not that, and while Mike Tomlin is nails off a bye week, the Steelers are not home. I like LA up to -4 but am taking -3 with inflated odds simply because you never know what the Steelers might do defensively with their turnover luck.

The Rams have no run game and no ability to bully you in the red zone. Plus, while the Pitts D will give up yards, they are not terrible in the red zone. This all adds to FG Heaven for Brett Maher. Surprised this price is this cheap.

The Steelers' 3-2 start is largely the result of two divisional rivals, the Ravens and Browns, self-destructing before their eyes. Even though the Rams are depleted by injuries in their backfield, their offense is coming together and their defense has allowed 15 points across the last 6 quarters. The Steelers are bottom third in every major offensive category.

First and foremost when the Steelers are getting points, note the latest iteration of Mike Tomlin's record as a dog (14-7 since 2021). This is admittedly a far cry from past high-profile Pittsburgh offenses like the all-time best featuring Bradshaw, Stallworth, Swann and Franco that once upon a time beat these same Rams in a Super Bowl at the nearby Rose Bowl (44 years ago...where did the time go?), but Kenny Pickett has developed a knack for coming up with big plays in the clutch, and George Pickens has become the new Stallworth with a collection of big catches, like the 41-yard TD in the 4th Q to put Steel ahead of the Ravens before the bye week. Play Steelers on Money Line

Its a home game thing. Since 2022, Brett Maher has kicked over 1.5 field goals in 18 of 24 games. This Steelers defense gives up a lot of yards, but not a lot of touchdowns outside of two matchups this season. This allows for plenty of opportunity for Maher, against a defense allowing 1.7 FGM this season.

Jaylen Warren is one of the only dependable elements in Steelers pass game, and run game. After self scout during bye and with limited QB on road I see him catching 5 balls. This prop has routinely gone over, and still low, with his wiggle can take any screen pass 20-30 yards. Najee Harris looks like a plowhorse and Aaron Donald pressure means Warren as release valve.

Pittsburgh has already allowed lines of 8-129-2 to Brandon Aiyuk, 13-172-2 to Davante Adams, and 7-168-2 to Nico Collins. What makes you think they're going to slow down Kupp, who has two 100+ yard games since returning in Week 5? He has a 34.4% target share in two games and a 41.7% first read share. I'll buy anything under 100 yards for Kupp until the wheels fall off.

Teams are 8-3 to the under. PIT avg just 12.6 offensive PPG. Rams out of RBs and Stafford 53.1 rating under pressure; Steelers will get pressure. Mike Tomlin will limit Kenny Pickett attempts and look for more Warren in short passing game. Both will run ball a lot even if going nowhere. Rams under this total in 4 of 6 games and Steelers in 4 of 5 (only over they scored 2 Def TDs). PIT under in 6 of last 7 with extra rest. Big game for TJ Watt

The Steelers are coming off a bye. The Rams could use one. Not only is primary RB Kyren Williams (ankle) likely out, main backup RB Ronnie Rivers (knee) is a certain scratch. Who knows the fate of CB Deion Kendrick, arrested just hours after L.A.'s win Sunday on traffic and weapons charges? Under coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 12-4 outright after a week off. The offense has been sketchy, so maybe the bye gave Tomlin and staff to identify solutions.

Each team has struggled on offense. Los Angeles is averaging 21 points at home and the Steelers, 14.5 on the road. Pittsburgh’s offense is averaging 289.4 yards of total offense and continue have issues with their offensive line, making it difficult to protect Kenny Pickett. The Rams have yet to score 30 points in a game this season and Pittsburgh’s defense finds way to keep them in games.

I know quite a few Steelers fans who are bent that Mike Tomlin didn't fire OC Matt Canada during the bye week. The Rams, meanwhile, likely will be down to their third-string RB due to injury. Bummer as starter Kyren Williams as an anytime TD scorer has been big-time $$ for us, but he's out at least this week and apparently backup Ronnie Rivers will be as well. Zach Evans will be a popular Fantasy pickup, but I wouldn't use him in this game.

The Steelers should come out of the bye healthier, but I'm not sure much is going to change with their offense with Matt Canada still running the show. That offense is 27th in yards per play and 32nd in the red zone, miles behind the Rams offense with Cooper Kupp back. And surprisingly, the Rams defense is also better than Pittsburgh's, which ranks 24th in yards per play and was only saved before the bye by some awful Baltimore drops. This line deserves to be north of 3 so I'm grabbing it now.